Post by Robert Waller on Dec 12, 2020 13:14:36 GMT
Parliamentary constituencies whose names consist of a county and the prefix ‘Mid’ tend to be a ragbag of areas that seem left over after more coherent units have been established, often created when a county’s electoral quota demands the creation of an extra seat. A typical example of this would be Mid Derbyshire since 2010, a division that includes disparate parts of three local government authorities including Derby itself. Mid Oxon had a relatively brief life (February 1974 – 1983) notable mainly for being the seat of the prominent Douglas Hurd. Arguably Poole North and mid Dorset is an even more undistinguished title. However Mid Sussex does have much more of a logic and raison d’etre to its existence.
For a start, there has been a local government district of Mid Sussex since 1974 and it is all included in this constituency with the exception of a handful of wards in each of Horsham and Arundel & South Downs. This seat contains no part of any other municipal unit, and is of a regular shape and does indeed lie in the geographical centre of the county, stretching from the Surrey border down to the border with Brighton and Hove, and running along the eastern edge of West Sussex’s border with East Sussex. It is not only compact but cohesive, covering the towns of East Grinstead, Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath, and the countryside in between – all parts of middle England as well as Mid Sussex. The Prime Meridian even passes through the constituency.
It could be argued that Mid Sussex is not located in the middle ground politically, and in the last three general elections it has given the appearance of being a Conservative stronghold. In 2019 Miriam ‘Mims’ Davies, migrating across the county boundary from Eastleigh in Hampshire, won a majority of over 18,000, nearly as convincing as that of her predecessor Nicholas Soames (19,000 in 2017, over 24,000 in 2015). However all is not quite as it seems. From the constituency’s creation in 1974 through to 2010, the Liberals or Liberal Democrats had always finished second, the last four times 1997-2010 by four figure majorities between 5,000 and 7,500, with a share increasing each time to reach a very healthy 37.5% in 2010. Then after the coalition, and the departure of serial candidate Serena Tierney, the Liberal Democrats suffered one of their steepest drops in the country in 2015, crashing into fourth place and losing over three quarters of their share (the victim, incidentally, was Daisy Cooper, now MP for St Albans). However some recovery has since been under way, as they advanced to third in 2017 and back into second in 2019, almost doubling their share from 13% to 24%. What is more, the Liberal Democrats have often proved competitive on Mid Sussex council, winning at least 20 of the 54 councillors from 1995 to 2011 including a four year period in overall control – and in May 2019 they made 13 gains from the Conservatives, clearly making renewed inroads after a period of Tory hegemony in both local and parliamentary contests here.
This may well presage a revival at the next general election. The Liberal Democrats are strongest in Burgess Hill, which is the largest town in this constituency. In May 2019, clearly running in some cases in partnership with Green or Independent candidates, they returned councilors, all gains, in all wards of Burgess Hill except one, Dunstall (mainly modern private housing in the north-west quadrant of the town). This seat voted Remain by over 53% in 2016, and a likely scenario would be that the Liberal Democrats strengthen their second place as the memory of the coalition fades further, while adverse economic effects are ascribed to exiting the EU.
However there is a caveat. There is and has been a growing electorate, which surpassed 85,000 in 2019. New housing estates have transformed Burgess Hill, which had a population of 7,000 in 1951, has more than quadrupled to over 30,000 now. It is set on the fast Brighton to London railway and has commuters to both, though it is also a hub of its own as the national headquarters of Filofax and with employer such as American Express, Honeywell and Porsche. Haywards Heath is also on the London-Brighton line and, as anyone driving round its southern ring road will testify, almost as large and rapidly growing (some population estimates such as Wikipedia include the contiguous community of Lindfield, but in fact Lindfield has a distinct, older, quainter feel – as does Cuckfield, also in Mid Sussex). Haywards Heath has a slightly more upmarket tone and socio-economic classification than Burgess Hill, particularly in the attractive Lucastre ward in the west of the town, and it is less fertile ground for the Liberal Democrats. More strongly Conservative than either of the other main towns, East Grinstead is considerably nearer to London but with less direct transport links, being neither near the A23 nor on such a main rail line, typically scheduled for 56 minutes to Victoria compared with 53 minutes from Burgess Hill and 46 minutes from Haywards Heath. East Grinstead may well be best known as the UK headquarters of the Scientology cult, but it has been a significant town for far longer than the others in Mid Sussex and elected MPs under its own name from 1307 to 1983. It is worthy of note that after its final election, the MP Geoffrey Johnson Smith preferred to contest the new Wealden constituency rather than Mid Sussex, as it was more monolithically Conservative. Both of these affluent, high socio-economic status, very owner-occupied seats have remained safely Tory, but the Liberal Democrat presence in Mid Sussex has been significant. Because of the population growth, though, there will again have to be boundary changes, and because the previous plan to reduce the number of MPs to 600 has been scrapped, they will have to be more extensive than in that ‘zombie review’, when only one rural ward, Bolney, was suggested for transfer to Arundel and South Downs. If the name Mid Sussex is retained, it may indeed become more of a ragbag than it is now.
2011 Census
Owner-occupied 73.6% 99/650
Private rented 13.4% 377/650
Social rented 10.8% 546/650
White 94.6% 327/650
Black 0.6% 325/650
Asian 3.1% 303/650
Managerial & professional 41.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 18.4%
Degree level 33.5% 111/650
No qualifications 14.6% 613/650
Students 5.8% 519/650
Age 65+ 17.7% 259/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 72.9% 91/573
Private rented 16.2% 375/573
Social rented 10.9% 478/573
White 91.6%
Black 1.0%
Asian 4.1%
Managerial & professional 43.9% 48/573
Routine & Semi-routine 17.3% 478/573
Degree level 38.6% 124/573
No qualifications 11.8% 547/573
General Election 2019: Mid Sussex
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Mims Davies 33,455 53.3 -3.6
Liberal Democrats Robert Eggleston 15,258 24.3 +11.6
Labour Gemma Bolton 11,218 17.9 -7.1
Green Deanna Nicholson 2,234 3.6 +1.0
Monster Raving Loony Baron Von Thunderclap 550 0.9 -0.1
Advance Brett Mortensen 47 0.1
C Majority 18,197 29.0 -2.9
Turnout 62,762 73.7 +0.9
Conservative hold
Swing 7.6 C to LD
For a start, there has been a local government district of Mid Sussex since 1974 and it is all included in this constituency with the exception of a handful of wards in each of Horsham and Arundel & South Downs. This seat contains no part of any other municipal unit, and is of a regular shape and does indeed lie in the geographical centre of the county, stretching from the Surrey border down to the border with Brighton and Hove, and running along the eastern edge of West Sussex’s border with East Sussex. It is not only compact but cohesive, covering the towns of East Grinstead, Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath, and the countryside in between – all parts of middle England as well as Mid Sussex. The Prime Meridian even passes through the constituency.
It could be argued that Mid Sussex is not located in the middle ground politically, and in the last three general elections it has given the appearance of being a Conservative stronghold. In 2019 Miriam ‘Mims’ Davies, migrating across the county boundary from Eastleigh in Hampshire, won a majority of over 18,000, nearly as convincing as that of her predecessor Nicholas Soames (19,000 in 2017, over 24,000 in 2015). However all is not quite as it seems. From the constituency’s creation in 1974 through to 2010, the Liberals or Liberal Democrats had always finished second, the last four times 1997-2010 by four figure majorities between 5,000 and 7,500, with a share increasing each time to reach a very healthy 37.5% in 2010. Then after the coalition, and the departure of serial candidate Serena Tierney, the Liberal Democrats suffered one of their steepest drops in the country in 2015, crashing into fourth place and losing over three quarters of their share (the victim, incidentally, was Daisy Cooper, now MP for St Albans). However some recovery has since been under way, as they advanced to third in 2017 and back into second in 2019, almost doubling their share from 13% to 24%. What is more, the Liberal Democrats have often proved competitive on Mid Sussex council, winning at least 20 of the 54 councillors from 1995 to 2011 including a four year period in overall control – and in May 2019 they made 13 gains from the Conservatives, clearly making renewed inroads after a period of Tory hegemony in both local and parliamentary contests here.
This may well presage a revival at the next general election. The Liberal Democrats are strongest in Burgess Hill, which is the largest town in this constituency. In May 2019, clearly running in some cases in partnership with Green or Independent candidates, they returned councilors, all gains, in all wards of Burgess Hill except one, Dunstall (mainly modern private housing in the north-west quadrant of the town). This seat voted Remain by over 53% in 2016, and a likely scenario would be that the Liberal Democrats strengthen their second place as the memory of the coalition fades further, while adverse economic effects are ascribed to exiting the EU.
However there is a caveat. There is and has been a growing electorate, which surpassed 85,000 in 2019. New housing estates have transformed Burgess Hill, which had a population of 7,000 in 1951, has more than quadrupled to over 30,000 now. It is set on the fast Brighton to London railway and has commuters to both, though it is also a hub of its own as the national headquarters of Filofax and with employer such as American Express, Honeywell and Porsche. Haywards Heath is also on the London-Brighton line and, as anyone driving round its southern ring road will testify, almost as large and rapidly growing (some population estimates such as Wikipedia include the contiguous community of Lindfield, but in fact Lindfield has a distinct, older, quainter feel – as does Cuckfield, also in Mid Sussex). Haywards Heath has a slightly more upmarket tone and socio-economic classification than Burgess Hill, particularly in the attractive Lucastre ward in the west of the town, and it is less fertile ground for the Liberal Democrats. More strongly Conservative than either of the other main towns, East Grinstead is considerably nearer to London but with less direct transport links, being neither near the A23 nor on such a main rail line, typically scheduled for 56 minutes to Victoria compared with 53 minutes from Burgess Hill and 46 minutes from Haywards Heath. East Grinstead may well be best known as the UK headquarters of the Scientology cult, but it has been a significant town for far longer than the others in Mid Sussex and elected MPs under its own name from 1307 to 1983. It is worthy of note that after its final election, the MP Geoffrey Johnson Smith preferred to contest the new Wealden constituency rather than Mid Sussex, as it was more monolithically Conservative. Both of these affluent, high socio-economic status, very owner-occupied seats have remained safely Tory, but the Liberal Democrat presence in Mid Sussex has been significant. Because of the population growth, though, there will again have to be boundary changes, and because the previous plan to reduce the number of MPs to 600 has been scrapped, they will have to be more extensive than in that ‘zombie review’, when only one rural ward, Bolney, was suggested for transfer to Arundel and South Downs. If the name Mid Sussex is retained, it may indeed become more of a ragbag than it is now.
2011 Census
Owner-occupied 73.6% 99/650
Private rented 13.4% 377/650
Social rented 10.8% 546/650
White 94.6% 327/650
Black 0.6% 325/650
Asian 3.1% 303/650
Managerial & professional 41.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 18.4%
Degree level 33.5% 111/650
No qualifications 14.6% 613/650
Students 5.8% 519/650
Age 65+ 17.7% 259/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 72.9% 91/573
Private rented 16.2% 375/573
Social rented 10.9% 478/573
White 91.6%
Black 1.0%
Asian 4.1%
Managerial & professional 43.9% 48/573
Routine & Semi-routine 17.3% 478/573
Degree level 38.6% 124/573
No qualifications 11.8% 547/573
General Election 2019: Mid Sussex
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Mims Davies 33,455 53.3 -3.6
Liberal Democrats Robert Eggleston 15,258 24.3 +11.6
Labour Gemma Bolton 11,218 17.9 -7.1
Green Deanna Nicholson 2,234 3.6 +1.0
Monster Raving Loony Baron Von Thunderclap 550 0.9 -0.1
Advance Brett Mortensen 47 0.1
C Majority 18,197 29.0 -2.9
Turnout 62,762 73.7 +0.9
Conservative hold
Swing 7.6 C to LD
