Post by European Lefty on Nov 29, 2020 18:25:34 GMT
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire covers the south western region of Northamptonshire, covering most of the district of the same name. As well as southern suburbs of Northampton, the constituency contains the towns of Brackley, Towcester (homophonous with “toaster”) and large areas of rural Northamptonshire to the south of the Nene. The constituency borders Daventry, Northampton South and Daventry again to its north; Wellingborough to the east; Milton Keynes North and South to the south east; Buckingham to the south, Banbury to the west and Kenilworth & Southam at a single point on its north west.
The history if this area is sparse but goes back a very long way. The name of the river Nene, which runs just to the north, is believed to be pre-Celtic, and both major towns in the area are mentioned in the Doomsday Book. Towcester is on the site of a Roman garrison town and there is evidence of human habitation back to the Mesolithic, which lends credibility to the town’s claim to be the oldest town in the county, and one of the longest continuously inhabited settlements in the UK. Two potential sites for the Battle of Wating Street, which decisively ended the Boudican revolt, are near the town and in this seat. Hardingstone, in the Northampton portion of the seat, is one of twelve sites to have had an Eleanor Cross constructed, and one of only three where the memorial is still standing. The Eleanor Crosses were constructed between 1291 and 1295 by Edward I in memory of his wife, Eleanor of Castile after her sudden death in 1290 at Harby in Nottinghamshire. A cross was built in every place where the procession rested overnight as her body was carried from Lincoln back to Westminster for burial. The only piece of industrial history in the area is the site of the former iron works at Hunsbury, also in the Northampton portion of the seat, and the Iron quarrying at Hardingstone. However, the Hunsbury ironworks closed down in 1921 and the quarrying ceased in the mid-19th century. Generally speaking, Northamptonshire has always been a mainly agricultural rather than industrial county and this is especially true in this area.
Demographically, this is a very Tory-friendly seat. It is the least deprived seat in Northamptonshire and the 516th most deprived of the 533 constituencies in England. Only two LSOAs are in the most deprived half (one in Towcester and one in West Hunsbury). Like many rural seats it scores much higher on the barriers to housing and services metric, thanks to a lack of housing and high prices, although even here it ranks only 225th. Average earnings are well above the UK average, although there is a shocking gender disparity with women actually earning below average for women in Britain. In addition, the share of the work force in full-time as opposed to part-time jobs is significantly above the national average. The constituency is also 76% owner-occupied, almost 13% above the UK average, with only two wards below average (and then by under 2%). In short, this is a very wealthy constituency with little in the way of deprivation.
It is also a very white constituency, with White British people making up over 93% of the population. People born in the UK make up 93% of the population, compared to 87% nationally. However, the average age is only just above the UK average, and it is a better educated constituency than average, with a higher proportion of people educated to degree level and a lower proportion with no qualifications. This adds up to an estimated leave vote of 53%, only slightly above the national result and well below the East Midlands result. However, this being the point where the East Midlands meets East Anglia – both relatively conservative regions – these statistics do not add up to strong Liberal prospects as they might do in a similar seat in the South West or the Home Counties.
This constituency has existed separately on three occasion: with two MPs from 1832-1885 and then one MP until 1918; from 1950 to 1974; and now since 2010. In its earliest for it was reliably Conservative with Whigs and Liberals being elected on jut 4 occasions. From 1950 to 1974 it was served by two Conservative MPs, although they often held Labour off by very close margins. At that stage the seat also included Daventry which even today has higher Labour strength than much of the area; contained more of Northampton itself; and Towcester and Brackley were more working class towns with the area’s industry (and the industry in Northampton) being a much less distant memory. Since it was reformed in 2010, its sole MP has been Andrea Leadsom and she has never won less than 50% of the vote, the lowest vote share being 55.2% in 2010. The LibDem collapse put Labour in second for 2015 and they have stayed there ever since, albeit a very distant second with the Tory majority not falling below the 35% achieved in 2017. Although Labour have had more luck in some demographically similar seats, this one is probably too rich, too rural and not studenty enough for the party to launch any serious challenge.
Every ward in this seat is carried by the Tories at general election. Even with no official breakdown, that is fairly obvious. Labour will outperform their constituency result in parts of Brackley and Towcester, and possibly some of the Northampton bits of the seat, but overall there is no real reliable bedrock of support for the party. The Liberal Democrats are the only party other than Conservatives to have district or county councillors in the seat, having won 4 of the 5 Towcester seats at the 2015 local elections.
In summary, this is a rich, economically right-of-centre, socially moderate seat that looks almost tailor-made for the Conservatives. With no obvious challenger and no obvious swing against them, it seems that seat is going to be safely Conservative for a very long time.
South Northamptonshire covers the south western region of Northamptonshire, covering most of the district of the same name. As well as southern suburbs of Northampton, the constituency contains the towns of Brackley, Towcester (homophonous with “toaster”) and large areas of rural Northamptonshire to the south of the Nene. The constituency borders Daventry, Northampton South and Daventry again to its north; Wellingborough to the east; Milton Keynes North and South to the south east; Buckingham to the south, Banbury to the west and Kenilworth & Southam at a single point on its north west.
The history if this area is sparse but goes back a very long way. The name of the river Nene, which runs just to the north, is believed to be pre-Celtic, and both major towns in the area are mentioned in the Doomsday Book. Towcester is on the site of a Roman garrison town and there is evidence of human habitation back to the Mesolithic, which lends credibility to the town’s claim to be the oldest town in the county, and one of the longest continuously inhabited settlements in the UK. Two potential sites for the Battle of Wating Street, which decisively ended the Boudican revolt, are near the town and in this seat. Hardingstone, in the Northampton portion of the seat, is one of twelve sites to have had an Eleanor Cross constructed, and one of only three where the memorial is still standing. The Eleanor Crosses were constructed between 1291 and 1295 by Edward I in memory of his wife, Eleanor of Castile after her sudden death in 1290 at Harby in Nottinghamshire. A cross was built in every place where the procession rested overnight as her body was carried from Lincoln back to Westminster for burial. The only piece of industrial history in the area is the site of the former iron works at Hunsbury, also in the Northampton portion of the seat, and the Iron quarrying at Hardingstone. However, the Hunsbury ironworks closed down in 1921 and the quarrying ceased in the mid-19th century. Generally speaking, Northamptonshire has always been a mainly agricultural rather than industrial county and this is especially true in this area.
Demographically, this is a very Tory-friendly seat. It is the least deprived seat in Northamptonshire and the 516th most deprived of the 533 constituencies in England. Only two LSOAs are in the most deprived half (one in Towcester and one in West Hunsbury). Like many rural seats it scores much higher on the barriers to housing and services metric, thanks to a lack of housing and high prices, although even here it ranks only 225th. Average earnings are well above the UK average, although there is a shocking gender disparity with women actually earning below average for women in Britain. In addition, the share of the work force in full-time as opposed to part-time jobs is significantly above the national average. The constituency is also 76% owner-occupied, almost 13% above the UK average, with only two wards below average (and then by under 2%). In short, this is a very wealthy constituency with little in the way of deprivation.
It is also a very white constituency, with White British people making up over 93% of the population. People born in the UK make up 93% of the population, compared to 87% nationally. However, the average age is only just above the UK average, and it is a better educated constituency than average, with a higher proportion of people educated to degree level and a lower proportion with no qualifications. This adds up to an estimated leave vote of 53%, only slightly above the national result and well below the East Midlands result. However, this being the point where the East Midlands meets East Anglia – both relatively conservative regions – these statistics do not add up to strong Liberal prospects as they might do in a similar seat in the South West or the Home Counties.
This constituency has existed separately on three occasion: with two MPs from 1832-1885 and then one MP until 1918; from 1950 to 1974; and now since 2010. In its earliest for it was reliably Conservative with Whigs and Liberals being elected on jut 4 occasions. From 1950 to 1974 it was served by two Conservative MPs, although they often held Labour off by very close margins. At that stage the seat also included Daventry which even today has higher Labour strength than much of the area; contained more of Northampton itself; and Towcester and Brackley were more working class towns with the area’s industry (and the industry in Northampton) being a much less distant memory. Since it was reformed in 2010, its sole MP has been Andrea Leadsom and she has never won less than 50% of the vote, the lowest vote share being 55.2% in 2010. The LibDem collapse put Labour in second for 2015 and they have stayed there ever since, albeit a very distant second with the Tory majority not falling below the 35% achieved in 2017. Although Labour have had more luck in some demographically similar seats, this one is probably too rich, too rural and not studenty enough for the party to launch any serious challenge.
Every ward in this seat is carried by the Tories at general election. Even with no official breakdown, that is fairly obvious. Labour will outperform their constituency result in parts of Brackley and Towcester, and possibly some of the Northampton bits of the seat, but overall there is no real reliable bedrock of support for the party. The Liberal Democrats are the only party other than Conservatives to have district or county councillors in the seat, having won 4 of the 5 Towcester seats at the 2015 local elections.
In summary, this is a rich, economically right-of-centre, socially moderate seat that looks almost tailor-made for the Conservatives. With no obvious challenger and no obvious swing against them, it seems that seat is going to be safely Conservative for a very long time.
