Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2020 14:55:39 GMT
Corby
Corby (not to be confused with a certain former leader of the Labour Party) is a candidate for being the worst named constituency in the country. Only about 54% of the electorate is in the eponymous borough, and under half is in the town itself. Furthermore, Corby sits right at the North-western edge of the constituency, which also contains the towns of Raunds, Irthlingborough and Thrapston, as well as a large expanse of countryside between the four towns. The seat sits at the eastern edge of Northamptonshire, in an area that is quite hard to place regionally. Although it is officially in the East Midlands, this is something of a misplacement. Like neighbouring Cambridgeshire, it has some similarities to the South East, and is not far off being East Anglian, although can’t really be considered as part of either region. This constituency’s border with Grantham & Stamford doubles as the shortest county border in England (between Northamptonshire and Lincolnshire) at just 18 metres long.
Perhaps the most important piece of history in this constituency is at Fotheringhay Castle in the east of the constituency. It was here that Mary, Queen of Scots spent her final night before being beheaded in the castle’s great hall, significantly dressed in the Catholic church’s liturgical colours of martyrdom. Five hundred years on, the castle lies in ruins, the jury is still out on Mary’s actual guilt and the letters which condemned her no longer exist, although perhaps this just adds to the intrigue around the incident.
Moving on towards more recent history, Corby experienced a massive population boom centred around the steel working industry in the 1930s (although ironworking had existed in the area since the Roman era). After being designated a new town in 1950, the town experienced its second wave of expansion, with most of the new inhabitants coming from Scotland to work in the steel works. This has had a lasting impact on the town, to the extent that its local dialect is often said to resemble Glaswegian English and 18.9% of the borough’s population were born in Scotland at the time of the 2001 census. The rest of the story is a familiar one in the second half of the twentieth century. The steelworks became unprofitable and declined, causing the borough’s unemployment rate to reach 30% by the mid-1980s. From 1990 to 2009, Corby was the largest town in the UK (and one of the largest in Europe) not to have its own railway station, with passengers being advised to alight at Kettering and travel onwards. Now, however the town has a direct rail link to Kettering, Wellingborough, Bedford, Luton, and London.
Let’s not forget the other major towns at the far end of the constituency. Irthlingborough and Raunds both have history that can be traced back to the Anglo-Saxons. Although Northamptonshire is often thought of, not entirely inaccurately, as an agricultural rather than an industrial county, both of these towns and Thrapston have a deep industrial history: boot and shoe manufacture in Raunds, mining and quarrying in Thrapston and Irthlingborough. Now, of course, the industry has more or less disappeared and these three towns have become reasonably wealthy with a lot of commuters living in them.
One of the things that really separates Northamptonshire as a county from the others in its official region of the East Midlands is the political behaviour of seats like this. As post-industrial seats all across Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, the Potteries and the West Midlands metro area have swung hard to the right over recent years, this seat as well as the two Northampton seats have if anything shifted to the left compared to the country as a whole. So why has this seat behaved in such a way? One factor is the extent to which this can be considered a post-industrial seat. As of 2011, 17.3% of the seat’s workforce was employed in manufacturing, more than double the national average. This compares to just 14.3% in Bolsover, 10% in Mansfield and a little over 7% in Stoke Central. Another potential cause is the town’s Scottish heritage – Scotland and especially the Central Belt have long been considered more left-wing than the country at large, and here of course there is no SNP candidate to vote for. Furthermore, Thrapston in particular has demographics that are becoming more friendly to Labour, although the other three towns together wouldn’t be enough to counteract major losses in Corby and the shift, if there is any, is likely to be rather small. The seats labour market profile is oriented towards low-paid and traditionally working-class jobs, although there isn’t a particularly large public sector to boost Labour’s support. This is the 273rd most deprived seat of the 533 in England (comparable to Mitcham & Morden, Ealing Central, and Berwick-Upon-Tweed), and the 4th most deprived in Northamptonshire behind the two Northampton seats and Wellingborough.
Low levels of home-ownership and large ethnic minority populations can often explain unexpectedly good results for Labour. Neither are present here, with the seat being over 96% white, and with 66.3% of households being owner-occupied, actually slightly above the national average. Whatever the reason, Labour have remained stronger here than in many similar areas, with the 8.5% swing required to regain it making it an easier target than formerly safe seats such as Bassetlaw, Mansfield, and North East Derbyshire.
Its political history has been relatively short. The seat was created in 1983, voting Conservative by 3,168 votes or 6.5%. Phil Hope gained the seat on an 11.5% swing in 1997 and lost in 2010 to Conservative Louise Bagshawe. Labour regained it in the 2012 by-election caused by her resignation but lost it in 2015 and Tom Pursglove has kept it for the Conservatives ever since currently enjoying a 10,268 or 16.9% majority. This means that, aside from the period between 2012 and 2015, the seat has been held by the party of government for its entire existence.
In terms of the political geography, the popular conception has always been that Labour-voting Corby balances Tory-voting East Northants with the seat being won by turnout levels and better dominance of your safe areas. Although this is not completely incorrect, it should be noted that there are some very middle-class areas with strong Tory votes in and around Corby, and some deprived areas of Irthlingborugh and Raunds that have not insignificant Labour votes. This is a divided constituency containing areas in both the most and least deprived decile in England. Overall, it is likely that the more deprived and less-owner occupied Corby delivers the bulk of the Labour support, despite some Tory strength in the more middle-class areas in the town’s south east, while the Tories dominate most of the East Northants parts despite Labour maintaining a decent base of support in the two previously mentioned towns.
Overall, this is a traditional marginal that has, despite the odds, remained a marginal (just about). Boundary changes are going to be key here, with the seat more than 10,000 voters oversized. If rural area, Irtlongborough, Raunds or any combination of those are removed, as seems most likely, it would shift the seat farther in Labour’s direction. This has been a marginal seat for its entire history and looks set to stay that way. Whatever else happens, this is a seat that both sides will probably need to win a majority.
Corby (not to be confused with a certain former leader of the Labour Party) is a candidate for being the worst named constituency in the country. Only about 54% of the electorate is in the eponymous borough, and under half is in the town itself. Furthermore, Corby sits right at the North-western edge of the constituency, which also contains the towns of Raunds, Irthlingborough and Thrapston, as well as a large expanse of countryside between the four towns. The seat sits at the eastern edge of Northamptonshire, in an area that is quite hard to place regionally. Although it is officially in the East Midlands, this is something of a misplacement. Like neighbouring Cambridgeshire, it has some similarities to the South East, and is not far off being East Anglian, although can’t really be considered as part of either region. This constituency’s border with Grantham & Stamford doubles as the shortest county border in England (between Northamptonshire and Lincolnshire) at just 18 metres long.
Perhaps the most important piece of history in this constituency is at Fotheringhay Castle in the east of the constituency. It was here that Mary, Queen of Scots spent her final night before being beheaded in the castle’s great hall, significantly dressed in the Catholic church’s liturgical colours of martyrdom. Five hundred years on, the castle lies in ruins, the jury is still out on Mary’s actual guilt and the letters which condemned her no longer exist, although perhaps this just adds to the intrigue around the incident.
Moving on towards more recent history, Corby experienced a massive population boom centred around the steel working industry in the 1930s (although ironworking had existed in the area since the Roman era). After being designated a new town in 1950, the town experienced its second wave of expansion, with most of the new inhabitants coming from Scotland to work in the steel works. This has had a lasting impact on the town, to the extent that its local dialect is often said to resemble Glaswegian English and 18.9% of the borough’s population were born in Scotland at the time of the 2001 census. The rest of the story is a familiar one in the second half of the twentieth century. The steelworks became unprofitable and declined, causing the borough’s unemployment rate to reach 30% by the mid-1980s. From 1990 to 2009, Corby was the largest town in the UK (and one of the largest in Europe) not to have its own railway station, with passengers being advised to alight at Kettering and travel onwards. Now, however the town has a direct rail link to Kettering, Wellingborough, Bedford, Luton, and London.
Let’s not forget the other major towns at the far end of the constituency. Irthlingborough and Raunds both have history that can be traced back to the Anglo-Saxons. Although Northamptonshire is often thought of, not entirely inaccurately, as an agricultural rather than an industrial county, both of these towns and Thrapston have a deep industrial history: boot and shoe manufacture in Raunds, mining and quarrying in Thrapston and Irthlingborough. Now, of course, the industry has more or less disappeared and these three towns have become reasonably wealthy with a lot of commuters living in them.
One of the things that really separates Northamptonshire as a county from the others in its official region of the East Midlands is the political behaviour of seats like this. As post-industrial seats all across Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, the Potteries and the West Midlands metro area have swung hard to the right over recent years, this seat as well as the two Northampton seats have if anything shifted to the left compared to the country as a whole. So why has this seat behaved in such a way? One factor is the extent to which this can be considered a post-industrial seat. As of 2011, 17.3% of the seat’s workforce was employed in manufacturing, more than double the national average. This compares to just 14.3% in Bolsover, 10% in Mansfield and a little over 7% in Stoke Central. Another potential cause is the town’s Scottish heritage – Scotland and especially the Central Belt have long been considered more left-wing than the country at large, and here of course there is no SNP candidate to vote for. Furthermore, Thrapston in particular has demographics that are becoming more friendly to Labour, although the other three towns together wouldn’t be enough to counteract major losses in Corby and the shift, if there is any, is likely to be rather small. The seats labour market profile is oriented towards low-paid and traditionally working-class jobs, although there isn’t a particularly large public sector to boost Labour’s support. This is the 273rd most deprived seat of the 533 in England (comparable to Mitcham & Morden, Ealing Central, and Berwick-Upon-Tweed), and the 4th most deprived in Northamptonshire behind the two Northampton seats and Wellingborough.
Low levels of home-ownership and large ethnic minority populations can often explain unexpectedly good results for Labour. Neither are present here, with the seat being over 96% white, and with 66.3% of households being owner-occupied, actually slightly above the national average. Whatever the reason, Labour have remained stronger here than in many similar areas, with the 8.5% swing required to regain it making it an easier target than formerly safe seats such as Bassetlaw, Mansfield, and North East Derbyshire.
Its political history has been relatively short. The seat was created in 1983, voting Conservative by 3,168 votes or 6.5%. Phil Hope gained the seat on an 11.5% swing in 1997 and lost in 2010 to Conservative Louise Bagshawe. Labour regained it in the 2012 by-election caused by her resignation but lost it in 2015 and Tom Pursglove has kept it for the Conservatives ever since currently enjoying a 10,268 or 16.9% majority. This means that, aside from the period between 2012 and 2015, the seat has been held by the party of government for its entire existence.
In terms of the political geography, the popular conception has always been that Labour-voting Corby balances Tory-voting East Northants with the seat being won by turnout levels and better dominance of your safe areas. Although this is not completely incorrect, it should be noted that there are some very middle-class areas with strong Tory votes in and around Corby, and some deprived areas of Irthlingborugh and Raunds that have not insignificant Labour votes. This is a divided constituency containing areas in both the most and least deprived decile in England. Overall, it is likely that the more deprived and less-owner occupied Corby delivers the bulk of the Labour support, despite some Tory strength in the more middle-class areas in the town’s south east, while the Tories dominate most of the East Northants parts despite Labour maintaining a decent base of support in the two previously mentioned towns.
Overall, this is a traditional marginal that has, despite the odds, remained a marginal (just about). Boundary changes are going to be key here, with the seat more than 10,000 voters oversized. If rural area, Irtlongborough, Raunds or any combination of those are removed, as seems most likely, it would shift the seat farther in Labour’s direction. This has been a marginal seat for its entire history and looks set to stay that way. Whatever else happens, this is a seat that both sides will probably need to win a majority.
