Post by Robert Waller on Nov 24, 2020 17:42:06 GMT
The analysis of why constituencies vote the way they do lends itself to the generation of statistical lists, as were included in the book form Almanac of British Politics, and subsequently in the Politico’s Guides to the 2015 and 2017 general elections: lists of the most marginal seats and the safest, the largest and smallest electorates, and the demographic characteristics – seats with the most pensioners or students, ethnic percentages, the seats with the highest proportion of agricultural workers, the twenty with the most in the professional and managerial socio-economic groups and the twenty with the highest percentages of manual workers. All of these can be related to voting behavior and the political tone of the constituencies. One category, however, has not so far been included in my lists in the above works: the seats with the highest proportion in the armed service occupations. In the most recent (2011) national Census we can come close to this in the figures relating to “public administration and defence”. Number one out of 633 seats in Britain in this category is Devizes.
Yes, the absolute number so employed in that census was just 10,968 or 21.5% of all workers, but the influence is significant. Not only are dependents and other family members additional to this, but also all the ancillary services and occupations that have a connection with the military in the area. The Devizes constituency is in effect the north eastern quadrant of Wiltshire. It covers a substantial portion of the Salisbury Plain, the chalk plateau that has been a prime site for military exercises since 1898. The current boundaries almost seem designed to maximise the presence and influence of the British Army. When they were redrawn before the 2010 election Devizes was defined as the whole of the District of Kennet and just two wards from the Salisbury District – Bulford and Durrington. Both of these are noted for their large Army bases, to add to Tidworth, for example, within Kennet. All three of the wards including these camps were amongst the dozen with the highest proportion of public administration and defence workers in the whole nation. By tradition defence is one of those political issues that tend to Conservative strength, and although it is also true that the vote of service personnel is by no means monolithic and also tend to a low turnout, the strong military influence is one of the reasons why Devizes is a very safe Tory seat indeed.
Of course there are other reasons too. This is a largely rural constituency with a scattering of small towns. There is the fertile affluence of the Vale of Pewsey. Devizes itself is an ancient fortified and market town, with a strong background in wool and grain, but also best known to some for the historic Wadworth’s brewery, which has been there since Victoria’s reign. Brewing is also historically associated with Toryism. Devizes was a parliamentary borough as long ago as 1295, but Parliament actually sat in Marlborough in 1267 (for example the Statute of Marlborough from that year), and its representation is at least as old. Marlborough does also have a well known private school. Apart from a handful of Independents, all the wards within the Wiltshire unitary authority (that replaced districts like Kennet from 1 April 2009) are Conservative, some overwhelmingly so. In the most recent elections in May 2018 the Tories amassed, in three cornered contests, 72% in Urchfont and the Cannings, for example, 72% in Pewsey, 77% in Pewsey Vale, and in a straight fight in Tidworth, 84% against Labour, though on an 18% turnout.
The Devizes constituency has been held by the Conservatives without a break since 1924, when it was gained from the Liberals by Percy Hurd, father, grandfather (Douglas) and great grandfather (Nick) of Tory MPs. In 2019 the seat, taken over by Danny Kruger following Claire Perry’s retirement, entered another list, that of the safest 30 Conservative constituencies, as they took 63%, a massive 47% ahead of both Liberal Democrats and Labour. Finally, perhaps, a mention for a fictional MP for Devizes. Sir Piers Fletcher-Dervish was the tormented sidekick of the late Rik Mayall’s Alan B’Stard (MP for ‘Haltemprice’) in the TV political satire The New Statesman. Clearly the writers Marks and Gran thought Devizes was a such a rock-solid Tory heartland that it could be relied on to elect someone with no ability or charisma at all. Just as with Haltemprice, the real (able and energetic) members that have represented Devizes could be excused for taking offence at such implications. But there is truth there all the same. There may be plenty of mock battles that take place within the constituency, but there is no real prospect of genuine strife for victory in the foreseeable electoral future.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 16.2% 366/650
Owner-occupied 59.7% 481/650
Private rented 18.7% 150/650
Social rented 18.6% 254/650
White 95.9/% 289/650
Black 1.3% 231/650
Asian 1.3% 440/650
Managerial & professional 37.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 22.3%
Employed in public administration and defence 21.5% 1/650
Degree level 28.5% 223/650
No qualifications 17.1% 565/650
Students 5.5% 582/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 60.9% 383/573
Private rented 22.0% 162/573
Social rented 17.1% 220/573
White 92.8%
Black 2.0%
Asian 2.4%
Managerial & professional 37.9% 149/573
Routine & Semi-routine 21.3% 382/573
Degree level 33.1% 259/573
No qualifications 13.8% 483/573
General Election 2019: Devizes
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Danny Kruger 32,150 63.1 +0.4
Liberal Democrats Jo Waltham 8,157 16.0 +6.7
Labour Rachael Schneider 7,838 15.4 -5.6
Green Emma Dawnay 2,809 5.5 +2.3
C Majority 23,993 47.1 +5.4
Turnout 50,954 69.4 -1.4
Conservative hold
Swing 3.15% Conservative to LD
Yes, the absolute number so employed in that census was just 10,968 or 21.5% of all workers, but the influence is significant. Not only are dependents and other family members additional to this, but also all the ancillary services and occupations that have a connection with the military in the area. The Devizes constituency is in effect the north eastern quadrant of Wiltshire. It covers a substantial portion of the Salisbury Plain, the chalk plateau that has been a prime site for military exercises since 1898. The current boundaries almost seem designed to maximise the presence and influence of the British Army. When they were redrawn before the 2010 election Devizes was defined as the whole of the District of Kennet and just two wards from the Salisbury District – Bulford and Durrington. Both of these are noted for their large Army bases, to add to Tidworth, for example, within Kennet. All three of the wards including these camps were amongst the dozen with the highest proportion of public administration and defence workers in the whole nation. By tradition defence is one of those political issues that tend to Conservative strength, and although it is also true that the vote of service personnel is by no means monolithic and also tend to a low turnout, the strong military influence is one of the reasons why Devizes is a very safe Tory seat indeed.
Of course there are other reasons too. This is a largely rural constituency with a scattering of small towns. There is the fertile affluence of the Vale of Pewsey. Devizes itself is an ancient fortified and market town, with a strong background in wool and grain, but also best known to some for the historic Wadworth’s brewery, which has been there since Victoria’s reign. Brewing is also historically associated with Toryism. Devizes was a parliamentary borough as long ago as 1295, but Parliament actually sat in Marlborough in 1267 (for example the Statute of Marlborough from that year), and its representation is at least as old. Marlborough does also have a well known private school. Apart from a handful of Independents, all the wards within the Wiltshire unitary authority (that replaced districts like Kennet from 1 April 2009) are Conservative, some overwhelmingly so. In the most recent elections in May 2018 the Tories amassed, in three cornered contests, 72% in Urchfont and the Cannings, for example, 72% in Pewsey, 77% in Pewsey Vale, and in a straight fight in Tidworth, 84% against Labour, though on an 18% turnout.
The Devizes constituency has been held by the Conservatives without a break since 1924, when it was gained from the Liberals by Percy Hurd, father, grandfather (Douglas) and great grandfather (Nick) of Tory MPs. In 2019 the seat, taken over by Danny Kruger following Claire Perry’s retirement, entered another list, that of the safest 30 Conservative constituencies, as they took 63%, a massive 47% ahead of both Liberal Democrats and Labour. Finally, perhaps, a mention for a fictional MP for Devizes. Sir Piers Fletcher-Dervish was the tormented sidekick of the late Rik Mayall’s Alan B’Stard (MP for ‘Haltemprice’) in the TV political satire The New Statesman. Clearly the writers Marks and Gran thought Devizes was a such a rock-solid Tory heartland that it could be relied on to elect someone with no ability or charisma at all. Just as with Haltemprice, the real (able and energetic) members that have represented Devizes could be excused for taking offence at such implications. But there is truth there all the same. There may be plenty of mock battles that take place within the constituency, but there is no real prospect of genuine strife for victory in the foreseeable electoral future.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 16.2% 366/650
Owner-occupied 59.7% 481/650
Private rented 18.7% 150/650
Social rented 18.6% 254/650
White 95.9/% 289/650
Black 1.3% 231/650
Asian 1.3% 440/650
Managerial & professional 37.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 22.3%
Employed in public administration and defence 21.5% 1/650
Degree level 28.5% 223/650
No qualifications 17.1% 565/650
Students 5.5% 582/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 60.9% 383/573
Private rented 22.0% 162/573
Social rented 17.1% 220/573
White 92.8%
Black 2.0%
Asian 2.4%
Managerial & professional 37.9% 149/573
Routine & Semi-routine 21.3% 382/573
Degree level 33.1% 259/573
No qualifications 13.8% 483/573
General Election 2019: Devizes
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Danny Kruger 32,150 63.1 +0.4
Liberal Democrats Jo Waltham 8,157 16.0 +6.7
Labour Rachael Schneider 7,838 15.4 -5.6
Green Emma Dawnay 2,809 5.5 +2.3
C Majority 23,993 47.1 +5.4
Turnout 50,954 69.4 -1.4
Conservative hold
Swing 3.15% Conservative to LD
The Brewhouse and Kitchen in Islington have a stout named after the character/agency. 