stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,343 
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Post by stb12 on Nov 10, 2024 13:13:37 GMT
In the vox pops I have seen, there are any number of reasons why Trump won - I suspect, as the exit poll numbers suggested, the two top liners were the economy and immigration. The new wholly GOP majority Executive and Legislature has to "deal with" those two issues and everything else is peripheral. On both issues, the Republican response is protectionist and insular - keep out "the foreign" - whether it's Chinese phones or Bangladesh-made shirts or illegal immigrants (however defined). How the American public perceives the performance of the new Republican administration on those two issues is probably the key factor in future elections (and it's perceptions which can be influenced by media as well as personal experience as much as actual statistics). The US economy is in good shape, and the belief that it's not is largely a result of successful rightwing media messaging. So all Trump has to do really is *not* break the economy, and get the Fox media message to change. The former may be more difficult for him then the latter, given his protectionist plans. On immigration all he has to do is secure the southern border, and now he has the Triecta he can fund The Wall and put machine-guns on it. I expect the flow of migrants to drop dramatically when they realise they may literally get shot at now. Given both these, I think Trump will likely be able to claim success on both key goals. Given the lunatic Woke zealots will not let go of the Democrats willingly, I would say there's a good chance of a GOP advance in the mid-terms. Funding the wall hit a stumbling block with a Democrat Senate filibuster the last time he had the trifecta, ended up playing a part in a government shut down in fact. As discussed before I don’t see the filibuster being changed by the GOP Senate leadership even though Trump will call for it However politically the Democrats will no doubt need to consider how they handle immigration legislation this time around |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,716
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Post by right on Nov 10, 2024 13:23:02 GMT
It's actually not that big a swing, but interesting that even here didn't swing against Trump
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Nov 10, 2024 13:24:15 GMT
Carl's work has been totally discredited as "ethically suspect", "methodologically flawed", racist pseudoscience", "poor scholarship which violated standards of academic integrity" and that in compiling his work he had collaborated with extremists. Since then he has further descended into wild rantings about white supremacy and eugenics. Of course, he tries to excuse this by the age-old trick of making it about his own free speech. That's why he is "much-maligned" and deservedly so. I assume you knew this anyway. First, that result by Carl is also replicated by quite a few other researchers, e.g: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01461672231198001tu-dresden.de/tu-dresden/newsportal/news/migration-polarisiert-rechte-klimawandel-linke-midem-studie-zeichnet-bild-der-konfliktlinien-europas?set_language=enSecond, your resort to quoting what was widely acknowledged at the time to be a hysterical stitch-up and hit-piece by unhinged Social Justice zealots trying (successfully) to whip-up a mob to force Carl out of Cambridge University...is exactly the kind of knee-jerk woke tripe we've come to know and expect from you. Have you ever tried thinking for yourself? On an irrelevant aside, I enjoyed the bit in the first paper where they recruit a load of U.S. participants and pay them a guinea – spectacularly useless remuneration:  |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,592
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Post by mboy on Nov 10, 2024 13:47:42 GMT
The US economy is in good shape, and the belief that it's not is largely a result of successful rightwing media messaging. So all Trump has to do really is *not* break the economy, and get the Fox media message to change. The former may be more difficult for him then the latter, given his protectionist plans. On immigration all he has to do is secure the southern border, and now he has the Triecta he can fund The Wall and put machine-guns on it. I expect the flow of migrants to drop dramatically when they realise they may literally get shot at now. Given both these, I think Trump will likely be able to claim success on both key goals. Given the lunatic Woke zealots will not let go of the Democrats willingly, I would say there's a good chance of a GOP advance in the mid-terms. Funding the wall hit a stumbling block with a Democrat Senate filibuster the last time he had the trifecta, ended up playing a part in a government shut down in fact. As discussed before I don’t see the filibuster being changed by the GOP Senate leadership even though Trump will call for it However politically the Democrats will no doubt need to consider how they handle immigration legislation this time around The Democrats would be completely insane to block The Wall again - they need to save their ammo for fighting the "mass deportations". (A key to the Democrats winning again is that they need to hope Trump "fixes" immigration so it stops being the #1 voter issue.) |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 10, 2024 13:56:02 GMT
In the vox pops I have seen, there are any number of reasons why Trump won - I suspect, as the exit poll numbers suggested, the two top liners were the economy and immigration. The new wholly GOP majority Executive and Legislature has to "deal with" those two issues and everything else is peripheral. On both issues, the Republican response is protectionist and insular - keep out "the foreign" - whether it's Chinese phones or Bangladesh-made shirts or illegal immigrants (however defined). How the American public perceives the performance of the new Republican administration on those two issues is probably the key factor in future elections (and it's perceptions which can be influenced by media as well as personal experience as much as actual statistics). The US economy is in good shape, and the belief that it's not is largely a result of successful rightwing media messaging. So all Trump has to do really is *not* break the economy, and get the Fox media message to change. The former may be more difficult for him then the latter, given his protectionist plans. On immigration all he has to do is secure the southern border, and now he has the Triecta he can fund The Wall and put machine-guns on it. I expect the flow of migrants to drop dramatically when they realise they may literally get shot at now. Given both these, I think Trump will likely be able to claim success on both key goals. Given the lunatic Woke zealots will not let go of the Democrats willingly, I would say there's a good chance of a GOP advance in the mid-terms. Whilst a tough stance on immigration including building a wall are reasonable objectives, surely they wouldnt actually shoot people on foreign soil which would be (outside of a war setting) judicial murder? I'm sure you arent actually advocating that - the USA is not North Korea! |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 10, 2024 14:04:58 GMT
The US economy is in good shape, and the belief that it's not is largely a result of successful rightwing media messaging. So all Trump has to do really is *not* break the economy, and get the Fox media message to change. The former may be more difficult for him then the latter, given his protectionist plans. On immigration all he has to do is secure the southern border, and now he has the Triecta he can fund The Wall and put machine-guns on it. I expect the flow of migrants to drop dramatically when they realise they may literally get shot at now. Given both these, I think Trump will likely be able to claim success on both key goals. Given the lunatic Woke zealots will not let go of the Democrats willingly, I would say there's a good chance of a GOP advance in the mid-terms. Whilst a tough stance on immigration including building a wall are reasonable objectives, surely they wouldnt actually shoot people on foreign soil which would be (outside of a war setting) judicial murder? I'm sure you arent actually advocating that - the USA is not North Korea! No they aren't the DPRK, and I don't support shooting migrants which would be monstrous. However, in terms of acts of war, Mexico has arguably committed precisely that. The cartels have repeatedly attacked US law enforcement, they have taken over motels and buildings in cities and they are responsible for hundreds of thousands of dead Americans, not to mention migration rings. The Mexican government has done, and can do, very little about it. Trump would have every right, in my view, to shoot Cartel runners, give the death penalty to those who facilitate human trafficking across the border and to take military action inside Mexico against cartel strongholds. That would simply be the US aggressively defending itself, which it has the right and responsibility to do. |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 10, 2024 14:09:47 GMT
I think what you do inside your own borders is a matter for your government, on foreign territory (short of a declaration of war) though? Heard of the Skripals for example?
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 10, 2024 14:20:42 GMT
I think what you do inside your own borders is a matter for your government, on foreign territory (short of a declaration of war) though? Heard of the Skripals for example? The Skripals didn't order legions of sicarios to traffic, rape, murder and torture on Russian soil. If they had, Russia would have had every justification to kill them; as does Trump with the cartels. |
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tomc
Conservative
Posts: 898
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Post by tomc on Nov 10, 2024 14:21:25 GMT
The US economy is in good shape, and the belief that it's not is largely a result of successful rightwing media messaging. So all Trump has to do really is *not* break the economy, and get the Fox media message to change. The former may be more difficult for him then the latter, given his protectionist plans. On immigration all he has to do is secure the southern border, and now he has the Triecta he can fund The Wall and put machine-guns on it. I expect the flow of migrants to drop dramatically when they realise they may literally get shot at now. Given both these, I think Trump will likely be able to claim success on both key goals. Given the lunatic Woke zealots will not let go of the Democrats willingly, I would say there's a good chance of a GOP advance in the mid-terms. Whilst a tough stance on immigration including building a wall are reasonable objectives, surely they wouldnt actually shoot people on foreign soil which would be (outside of a war setting) judicial murder? I'm sure you arent actually advocating that - the USA is not North Korea! North Korea is not shooting people trying to get in to North Korea. |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 10, 2024 14:22:34 GMT
and that is relevant how?
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,053
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Post by cathyc on Nov 10, 2024 14:31:19 GMT
Whilst a tough stance on immigration including building a wall are reasonable objectives, surely they wouldnt actually shoot people on foreign soil which would be (outside of a war setting) judicial murder? I'm sure you arent actually advocating that - the USA is not North Korea! North Korea is not shooting people trying to get in to North Korea. How about vice versa? |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 10, 2024 14:35:32 GMT
It apparently depends which direction you're moving that determines whether you can be promptly shot dead or not according to some members...
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,838
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Post by myth11 on Nov 10, 2024 14:36:28 GMT
2 more days for mail votes to arrive in California 😂. So lucky this is not a close state as the law suits would be endless.
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sanders
Green
Posts: 2,893
Member is Online
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Post by sanders on Nov 10, 2024 14:49:22 GMT
Newsmax is trash. US GB News.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 10, 2024 14:53:09 GMT
The US economy is in good shape, and the belief that it's not is largely a result of successful rightwing media messaging. So all Trump has to do really is *not* break the economy, and get the Fox media message to change. The former may be more difficult for him then the latter, given his protectionist plans. On immigration all he has to do is secure the southern border, and now he has the Triecta he can fund The Wall and put machine-guns on it. I expect the flow of migrants to drop dramatically when they realise they may literally get shot at now. Given both these, I think Trump will likely be able to claim success on both key goals. Given the lunatic Woke zealots will not let go of the Democrats willingly, I would say there's a good chance of a GOP advance in the mid-terms. Whilst a tough stance on immigration including building a wall are reasonable objectives, surely they wouldnt actually shoot people on foreign soil which would be (outside of a war setting) judicial murder? I'm sure you arent actually advocating that - the USA is not North Korea! Well, you would build the wall a few tens of metres back from the actual border, and a fence with warning signs on the border itself. Anyone between the wall and the fence would then be fair game. |
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mboy
Liberal
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Posts: 23,592
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Post by mboy on Nov 10, 2024 15:01:33 GMT
Most countries do exactly that.
(Not least because if you build the barrier on the literal border you have no way to service the other side of the barrier!)
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Post by islington on Nov 10, 2024 15:53:47 GMT
2 more days for mail votes to arrive in California 😂. So lucky this is not a close state as the law suits would be endless. Lucky the election is not by national PV or we'd be lucky to get a result in time for the Inauguration. |
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,659
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Post by Jack on Nov 10, 2024 16:02:33 GMT
2 more days for mail votes to arrive in California 😂. So lucky this is not a close state as the law suits would be endless. Lucky the election is not by national PV or we'd be lucky to get a result in time for the Inauguration. All of this makes you glad to live in the UK where our general election counts are over by the following afternoon. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 10, 2024 16:13:16 GMT
I think what you do inside your own borders is a matter for your government, on foreign territory (short of a declaration of war) though? Heard of the Skripals for example? The clever thing to do with these things is the Pedro Sanchez approach - your fence but you outsource the killings. |
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sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Nov 10, 2024 17:00:34 GMT
President, I served with Grover Cleveland. President, Grover Cleveland was a friend of mine/ President, you're no Grover Cleveland. Is Cleveland, Oho named after him or the place in the north east of England?
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