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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 17:21:59 GMT
LVs! 6% is approaching Barack Obama's 2008 margin. ABC is a highly respected US pollster too. Apply that shift nationally, Harris wins 319 Electoral votes. TX would be a narrow Trump win. Incidentally, the tiny boxes on this:
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 10, 2024 14:32:00 GMT
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Post by sanders on Sept 10, 2024 14:59:01 GMT
That tracks with Nate Silver who gives Trump a 63% chance of winning.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,261
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Post by iain on Sept 10, 2024 15:35:17 GMT
I'd start by noting that they are using the wrong congressional lines where they have been updated since last election (Louisiana, Georgia, Alabama, North Carolina) which hardly inspires confidence, but there is some relatively interesting stuff in there. The 'demographic' cross tabs show Trump improving most with Hispanics, but in the list of congressional races the Dems actually look to be doing rather well in Hispanic areas, which is rather odd. Looking through the district results also shows the Dems absolutely cratering with rural blacks, which is backed up (though not to this extent) by some other polling we've seen.
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Post by sanders on Sept 10, 2024 16:43:56 GMT
Make it make sense quite honestly. North Carolina is more educated than Georgia, but still seems a stretch. Nevada always flatters to deceive for Republicans. Trump was meant to snag the state in '16 - that didn't exactly end up happening. Pennsylvania does seem to be the tipping point state this year so it's tossup status isn't shocking.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 10, 2024 18:40:37 GMT
I think these are fairly reasonable, albeit I think the apolitical moderates band is probably quite a bit bigger
/photo/1
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 10, 2024 19:08:37 GMT
I think these are fairly reasonable, albeit I think the apolitical moderates band is probably quite a bit bigger /photo/1 My initial thought was "Why bring in these new political labels only to drop them?"
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Post by sanders on Sept 10, 2024 19:29:35 GMT
Some of the USA’s left-trending counties. Collin County, Texas has swung sharply. Mitt Romney won there by 31%. 2020 saw Trump win by 8%. Basically counties like Bell, Collin and Denton have helped drive Texas left but Dems haven’t won them for a long time. These were all fairly rural in the last century but suburban sprawl has been incredibly fast since the 90s as the Texas triangle exploded. x.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1833582256688140780?s=46
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 11, 2024 1:28:42 GMT
The behaviour of the female moderator is making Trump look a bit sympathetic. Candy Crowleying an election like this isn't the way to go. It will get the backs of Trump's supporters up more.
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 11, 2024 1:36:49 GMT
The behaviour of the female moderator is making Trump look a bit sympathetic. Candy Crowleying an election like this isn't the way to go. It will get the backs of Trump's supporters up more. Ah yes. It’s always the womans fault.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 11, 2024 1:38:37 GMT
Oh grow up.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,773
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Post by johng on Sept 11, 2024 1:57:37 GMT
Harris doing quite well baiting Trump. He's ranting and rambling and isn't focused enough to truly pin Harris on her many weaknesses. The rants may go down well with hardcore MAGA, but not moderates or independents.
Not sure I can stay up much longer as I have a 9am meeting, but it certainly seems like Harris is ahead right now.
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Post by willpower3 on Sept 11, 2024 1:59:16 GMT
Trump is speaking language that is doubtless agreeable to one-half of the nation. Harris is speaking language that is doubtless agreeable to one-half of the nation. But they are different languages aimed at different nations.
America is too big. Split it in half, if not quarters, if not tenths, if not hundreths. It is a failed experiment.
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Post by sanders on Sept 11, 2024 2:04:15 GMT
I'm watching the debate here: www.youtube.com/live/VgsC_aBquUE?si=HLa_oS9ogIZxp1Ao. Donald Trump always has to bring up Viktor Orban, doesn't he? You can feel the wannabe dictator vibes from a mile off. I don't think it's the winning argument Donald "dictator on day one" Trump thinks it is.
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 11, 2024 2:11:06 GMT
It’s also on Channel 4 and BBC News/website.
It’s been an interesting debate but I’d love to learn more about the transgender operations on illegal aliens who are in prison.
I have many other observations but sharing them instantly on here might not be wise… 😝
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 11, 2024 2:13:56 GMT
Trump now claims that Putin has endorsed Harris lol 😂
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Post by sanders on Sept 11, 2024 2:15:33 GMT
Putin and Netanyahu both want Trump to win, if I'm not mistaken. Good to see Harris defending the Afghanistan withdrawal (the war cost $300 million a day!?).
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 11, 2024 2:41:45 GMT
Trump is speaking language that is doubtless agreeable to one-half of the nation. Harris is speaking language that is doubtless agreeable to one-half of the nation. But they are different languages aimed at different nations. America is too big. Split it in half, if not quarters, if not tenths, if not hundreths. It is a failed experiment. I don’t agree with that. First, let me be clear. I am not an Anericaniser. We aren’t America, we’re different, and I despise the way our elites are trying to make us a poor imitation of the US. We have a different culture, history and sociocultural norms. We are ethnically based states forged over two millennia of internecine warfare. That’s why our borders are all so jagged. As such, to us, Americanisation is as corrosive as a xenomorph’s blood. However, as a ludicrously diverse start up nation, America has been remarkably successful in crafting a national identity and culture which is applicable to almost anyone. If you or I emigrated there, we could become American almost overnight. That’s not true anywhere else. True, there is a specific oligarchical problem at the moment, as there has been in the past, but the US as a continent spanning, diverse democracy has done remarkably well. They are far freer and more prosperous than we are, and the 21st century looks bright for them if they can overcome their difficulties. Conversely, I am deeply worried about the prospects of European civilisation. On that, I am envious of their success.
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 11, 2024 2:50:34 GMT
Trump talks about the late, great, Hannibal Lecter. Harris talks about the late, great, John McCain.
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Post by sanders on Sept 11, 2024 2:55:06 GMT
Harris talks about the late, great, John McCain. Smart politics - Harris is winning Arizona. The McCains are still royalty there. I wasn't a McCain fan though. Too pro-war for my taste, frankly.
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