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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 5, 2024 15:42:51 GMT
To the surprise of almost everyone, the DOJ has got off it's backside and charged a Tennessee based media firm full of right wing talking heads of being a Russian front. There are Donald J Trump connections. Which may explain his relative silence over the last week. The amount these people were being paid is astounding. $400,000 per month!! I don’t know why I bother with a regular job… it would take me 10 years to earn that amount.
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Post by timmullen on Sept 5, 2024 16:05:37 GMT
Liz Cheney might want a cabinet post. Colour me cynical in old age. That wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Plus Harris said she’d appoint Republicans. Not uncommon amongst Democrat administrations, Obama appointed at least a couple of Republicans to his cabinet. Biden didn’t (a bit surprisingly I think) but did nominate one or two to ambassadorial roles Can at least go back to Clinton appointing William Cohen as Defense Secretary in my memory. I don’t imagine Cheney serving in a Cabinet position, I think her all around conservative views (opposed same sex marriage, anti abortion, higher military spending) makes her a tough sell, but Kiinzinger might be a possible
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Post by sanders on Sept 5, 2024 16:23:24 GMT
This looks to be uncomfortably close. I don't see it in Arizona. Harris has neutralised the border issue. She has the Mesa mayor backing her. That, and the McCain family's backing. Plus the long-term trends there. It was Romney +10 then Biden won. Georgia was Romney +8 then Biden won. So Arizona is zooming left faster. Wisconsin has a popular Democratic governor. Still, WI looks like an outlier. Nevada generally has atrocious Presidential polling. Trump was supposed to win NV. Romney was meant to do better. I'm afraid I don't believe it. Back to Wisconsin, Walz regional advantage? WI does border his home state.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 955
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Post by nyx on Sept 5, 2024 20:03:27 GMT
This looks to be uncomfortably close. I don't see it in Arizona. Harris has neutralised the border issue. She has the Mesa mayor backing her. That, and the McCain family's backing. Plus the long-term trends there. It was Romney +10 then Biden won. Georgia was Romney +8 then Biden won. So Arizona is zooming left faster. Wisconsin has a popular Democratic governor. Still, WI looks like an outlier. Nevada generally has atrocious Presidential polling. Trump was supposed to win NV. Romney was meant to do better. I'm afraid I don't believe it. Back to Wisconsin, Walz regional advantage? WI does border his home state. My instinct says Arizona and Georgia must be good for Harris whereas Trumpism is more likely to pay off in the Midwest. I'm inclined to say AZ, GA, WI, NV go for Harris whilst NC, PA, MI go for Trump (i.e. repeat of the 2020 map except for PA and MI flipping red)... but that would be 269-269 which is of course unlikely! Will be close either way though
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Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:28:46 GMT
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 3:01:15 GMT
Can we get polls for: AZ; FL; GA; ME-02; MI; NE-02; NV; NC; PA; TX; WI. Thanks.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 6, 2024 7:22:16 GMT
Can we get polls for: AZ; FL; GA; ME-02; MI; NE-02; NV; NC; PA; TX; WI. Thanks. Texas is the only one there I personally can’t see being necessary but I’ve added one!
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 7:57:05 GMT
Can we get polls for: AZ; FL; GA; ME-02; MI; NE-02; NV; NC; PA; TX; WI. Thanks. Texas is the only one there I personally can’t see being necessary but I’ve added one! Both Texas and Florida are only Likely Republican according to Larry Sabato.'s Crystal Ball. We never know where a poll could come in handy
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Post by timmullen on Sept 6, 2024 8:08:19 GMT
I think there’ll be a glut of polls over the next week as Labor Day (last Monday) is the traditional kickoff of the campaign season, but, on the flip side, that probably means there wasn’t much polling conducted over the holiday weekend.
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 8:29:14 GMT
I think there’ll be a glut of polls over the next week as Labor Day (last Monday) is the traditional kickoff of the campaign season, but, on the flip side, that probably means there wasn’t much polling conducted over the holiday weekend. Post-Labor day weekend, Likely Voter polls only from A-ranked pollsters - can't wait.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,290
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 6, 2024 10:06:10 GMT
Is it true that there has been an influx of GOP hack "pollsters" in recent weeks in an attempt to move the averages?
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 10:31:32 GMT
Polling averages here - note North Carolina. It went to Trump by 1%. So this is decent for Harris.
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Post by timmullen on Sept 6, 2024 10:41:19 GMT
Is it true that there has been an influx of GOP hack "pollsters" in recent weeks in an attempt to move the averages? There’s also been a newbie, ActiVote, which asks voters to download an App and answer a series of regular questions including voter intention, which doesn’t strike as especially scientific! They’re also heavily favouring Democrats.
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 10:48:19 GMT
Uh oh they forgot Likely characterisations. CO, NM, OR should be Likely Dem. TX should be Likely GOP. Likely = 5-10% margin.
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 6, 2024 18:04:51 GMT
Donald Trump’s sentencing in the Stormy Daniels hush money case has been delayed until after the election. Full court document linked to in the tweet below:
Edit: Just to add, Judge Merchan will issue his ruling on whether or not the SCOTUS immunity decision applies to this case on November 11th. If he rules that Trump does *not* have immunity for hush money payments to an adult film actress, Trump will almost certainly appeal that decision to the 2nd Circuit and then up to SCOTUS if necessary, which would (I think) end up delaying sentencing for many more months anyway.
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 20:04:54 GMT
Dick Cheney is endorsing Kamala Harris.
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Post by batman on Sept 6, 2024 20:32:38 GMT
now that is interesting. He is really conservative. However he is not Trumpian, just very conservative.
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Post by swanarcadian on Sept 6, 2024 20:50:35 GMT
Cheney backing Harris doesn’t actually come as that much of a surprise. He was Bush’s vice president. The Bushes don’t like Trump after the way he treated Jeb in the 2016 GOP debates. Bush senior backed Clinton in 2016 IIRC.
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 6, 2024 21:31:00 GMT
Liz Cheney is also backing the Democratic challenger to Ted Cruz (Colin Aldred) in the Texas Senate race. But, as we have already discussed, what the Cheney’s think is now largely irrelevant. Their antipathy towards Trump is widely known.
Would a Bush Jr. endorsement of Harris have a bigger impact?? Tbh even then I am sceptical. I doubt a Romney or even Pence endorsement of Harris would move the needle that much. Is there any Republican who could endorse Harris and actually make a difference?? I really don’t think so any more. Trump voters are by and large locked in no matter what.
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 6, 2024 22:02:56 GMT
Cheney backing Harris doesn’t actually come as that much of a surprise. He was Bush’s vice president. The Bushes don’t like Trump after the way he treated Jeb in the 2016 GOP debates. Bush senior backed Clinton in 2016 IIRC. The Bushes also are mainstream Republicans who respect the rule of law. Trump is against everything they stand for regardless of personality.
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