Eastleigh By Elections predictions

[Deleted]

Hopefully the right place and good luck with this lot !!

Wessex Regionalist Colin Bex 1
Elvis Loves Pets David Bishop 0.5
Peace Jim Duggan 1
Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party Ray Hall 0.5
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 1.5
Conservative Maria Hutchings 26
UKIP Diane James 14
Health Action Iain Maclennan 5
Christian Kevin Milburn 0.5
Labour John O'Farrell 14
TUSC Daz Procter 1
Independent Danny Stupple 1
Liberal Democrat Mike Thornton 33
English Democrats Michael Walters 1

[Pete Whitehead]

You've got others (not including UKIP) on 13% there. Agree the Health Action bloke might get a few votes, but the others won't get much more than 1-2% between them

[Deleted]

I know but could be arsed to go to 0.1% of votes ha ha

[Tony Otim]

My tentative guess at the moment would be:
LD 31.2
Con 27.8
UKIP 22.1
Lab 13.2
Health Action 3.6
ED 0.5
Peace 0.4
TUSC 0.3
Ind 0.2
wessex 0.2
Christian 0.2
OMRLP 0.1
Beer, Baccy, etc... 0.1
Elvis 0.1

[thirdchill]

LD 34.2
Con 30.8
UKIP 17.4
Lab 13.6
Health Action 2.3
ED 0.9
Peace 0.1
TUSC 0.1
Ind 0.1
wessex 0.1
Christian 0.1
OMRLP 0.1
Beer, Baccy, etc... 0.1
Elvis 0.1

[greatkingrat]

I noticed that the recent Survation poll showed just 1 out of 543 (0.2%) people voting for the Health Action candidate, while 7 people (1.3%) were voting for the Independent Stupple. I realise you can't read too much into this due to the margins of error, but it does suggest the order of the minor candidates may not be as expected.

[Deleted]

I was considering starting a thread similar to this, with a poll for us to guess which party will win - but resisted because I thought it might be seen as upstaging the other existing thread.
I will hopefully be able to post a prediction a little closer to the time.

[Deleted]

Wessex Regionalist GAIN

[marksenior]

Will give a fuller prediction tomorrow but won't list %s for all the minor candidates . 5th place will be between NHA and Stupple and I fancy he could finish 5th with Boorley protest votes .

[marksenior]

LD 36 Con 26 UKIP 21 Lab 12 Rest 5 Stupple to be 5th

[Deleted]

LD 34% Con 28% UKIP 21% Lab 13% Others 4%

[Deleted]

About what catholicleft predicts.

[wondershowzen81]

LD 31%
UKIP 26%
CON 25%
LAB 13%
NHA 2%
OTHER 3%

[arnieetc]

LD 29% Con 27% UKIP 27% Lab 14% Others 3%

Justification: Think recent by-election polling has tended to understate Ukip, but the LD's local infrastructure should see them over the line with a superior postal vote operation.

[AdminSTB]

LD 31
Con 30
UKIP 21
Lab 13
NHA 2
ED 0.8
TUSC 0.6
Ind 0.4
Peace 0.3
Christian 0.3
OMRLP 0.3
Wessex 0.1
Elvis 0.1
Beer Baccy Crumpet 0.1

[Deleted]

If you have a Twitter account, you can log on to House of Twits, which is offering the choices Conservative, LibDem, or Other.

[Pete Whitehead]

LD    30.9
UKIP 28.5
Con  26.1
Lab   10.8
Ind    1.4
Oth   2.3

[Andrew_S]

UKIP 12,881
LD 12,859
Con 12,143
Lab 4,870
Others 1,161

[Pete Whitehead]

In % terms your prediction is

UKIP 29.3%
LD 29.3%
Con 27.7%
Lab 11.1%
Oth 2.6%

Not very disimilar to mine but obviously a happier outcome. I can't quite allow myself to believe that UKIP could win here and the bookies certainly don't believe it which worries me more, but I do have quite a good feeling in my water

[marksenior]

Ladbrokes forecast is LD 33 Con 29 UKIP 25 Lab 11 Others 2