Post by John Chanin on Oct 16, 2020 15:49:32 GMT
Rugby is a large town on the river Avon with a population of 75,000, most famous for giving its name to the sport, developed in the private school which still exists here. It grew up in the 1800s with the railways, as it formed an important junction, and it still has a large station, and here is where the west coast main line splits, one branch heading to Birmingham, and the other through Tamworth to Stoke. It subsequently became an important engineering centre, and its location on the M6 has helped to keep it more economically successful than the coalfield towns to the north-west.
The town accounts for two-thirds of the seat and is traditionally marginal. The centre is Victorian and sits to the south of the river and the railway. Benn ward on the east side has large amounts of private renting in the old terraces by the centre, and is the Labour stronghold in the town. New Bilton ward on the west of the town centre is similar with some council housing further out, and is also thoroughly working class and Labour voting. To the south-west and south-east are the middle-class owner occupied areas - Bilton, Cawston, Eastlands, Paddox, and Hillmorton (once a separate village). These leafy areas of inter-war semi-detached housing generally have more managerial than routine workers (although Hillmorton has some council tenants and is a little down-market), and over a third of the population with degrees. Bilton and Eastlands have no council housing at all. The south-west votes Conservative at local elections, while the Liberal Democrats have established a stronghold in the south-east, routinely winning 3 wards here. North of the river Avon (and the Oxford canal) is rather different. Brownsover consists of extensive post-war council estates (albeit as usual with much right to buy), with a large industrial estate to the north, and although normally Labour, the Conservatives won here in 2021. Further out are extensive new private developments where people vote Conservative. And to the north-west between the Avon and the Oxford canal, is Newbold - an old village swallowed up by the town. Rugby is not as white as the coalfield towns, and there are sizable minorities of more than 10%, fairly evenly split between black and asian, in the central wards and Brownsover.
The remaining third of the seat is largely rural, and tilts Rugby to the right. Rugby District is the right size for a seat of its own, but Warwickshire’s awkward shape means that the Boundary Commission has been unable to achieve this. The two rural wards to the south of the town are hived off to Kenilworth & Southam, and are replaced by Bulkington from Nuneaton District. To the north of Rugby is an extensive flat agricultural region, bisected by the M6, with remote villages like Pailton, Brinklow, and Withybrook, bordered to the east by the Fosse Way which separates Warwickshire from Leicestershire. To the north Wolvey and Bramcote are a little larger and within the orbit of Nuneaton. This area though small in population is as conservative as most rural areas. Bulkington is separated from the main urban area of Nuneaton but has a decidedly suburban feel. It is mainly owner-occupied but quite working-class and traditionally marginal. Between Rugby and Coventry there is more of a commuter village feel. Binley Woods and Wolston are satellites of Coventry, and Long Lawford of Rugby. The population in this area is similar in size to the rural north, and equally Conservative.
All this adds up to a seat that Labour can win a good year. Labour held a seat tightly drawn round the town between 1966 and 1979. In 1983 the town was linked with the very Conservative and middle-class town of Kenilworth, and it was a major surprise when Labour won the seat in 1997 by 500 votes, and held it in 2001. In 2010 as the data below shows, the Conservatives won the seat on its present boundaries comfortably, but the town would have been close. The subsequent swing to the Conservatives (with a bump in 2017) more closely matches the national picture, than the large swings in the coalfield towns to the north-west. Despite the sizable 2019 majority, this is a seat which is not entirely safe for the Conservatives, although Labour could achieve a majority without it. MP here is Mark Pawsey who won the seat in 2010 after the sitting member opted for the new safer seat of Kenilworth & Southam. He was a small businessman and local councillor prior to his election, and is the son of the Conservative MP defeated here in 1997.
Warwickshire provided an unusually easy task for the Boundary Commission as the only change required (apart from realignment to new ward boundaries) was to move one ward from Warwick & Leamington to Kenilworth & Southam. They could have realigned the seats to match local authority boundaries, but chose not to.
Census data: Owner-occupied 70% (218/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (296th), social rented 14% (316th).
: White 90%, Black 2%, South Asian 4%, Mixed 2%, Other 2%
: Managerial & professional 36% (271st), Routine & Semi-routine 31% (246th)
: Degree level 27%(258th), No qualifications 34%(354th)
: Students 2.7% (407th), Over 65: 17% (244th)
The town accounts for two-thirds of the seat and is traditionally marginal. The centre is Victorian and sits to the south of the river and the railway. Benn ward on the east side has large amounts of private renting in the old terraces by the centre, and is the Labour stronghold in the town. New Bilton ward on the west of the town centre is similar with some council housing further out, and is also thoroughly working class and Labour voting. To the south-west and south-east are the middle-class owner occupied areas - Bilton, Cawston, Eastlands, Paddox, and Hillmorton (once a separate village). These leafy areas of inter-war semi-detached housing generally have more managerial than routine workers (although Hillmorton has some council tenants and is a little down-market), and over a third of the population with degrees. Bilton and Eastlands have no council housing at all. The south-west votes Conservative at local elections, while the Liberal Democrats have established a stronghold in the south-east, routinely winning 3 wards here. North of the river Avon (and the Oxford canal) is rather different. Brownsover consists of extensive post-war council estates (albeit as usual with much right to buy), with a large industrial estate to the north, and although normally Labour, the Conservatives won here in 2021. Further out are extensive new private developments where people vote Conservative. And to the north-west between the Avon and the Oxford canal, is Newbold - an old village swallowed up by the town. Rugby is not as white as the coalfield towns, and there are sizable minorities of more than 10%, fairly evenly split between black and asian, in the central wards and Brownsover.
The remaining third of the seat is largely rural, and tilts Rugby to the right. Rugby District is the right size for a seat of its own, but Warwickshire’s awkward shape means that the Boundary Commission has been unable to achieve this. The two rural wards to the south of the town are hived off to Kenilworth & Southam, and are replaced by Bulkington from Nuneaton District. To the north of Rugby is an extensive flat agricultural region, bisected by the M6, with remote villages like Pailton, Brinklow, and Withybrook, bordered to the east by the Fosse Way which separates Warwickshire from Leicestershire. To the north Wolvey and Bramcote are a little larger and within the orbit of Nuneaton. This area though small in population is as conservative as most rural areas. Bulkington is separated from the main urban area of Nuneaton but has a decidedly suburban feel. It is mainly owner-occupied but quite working-class and traditionally marginal. Between Rugby and Coventry there is more of a commuter village feel. Binley Woods and Wolston are satellites of Coventry, and Long Lawford of Rugby. The population in this area is similar in size to the rural north, and equally Conservative.
All this adds up to a seat that Labour can win a good year. Labour held a seat tightly drawn round the town between 1966 and 1979. In 1983 the town was linked with the very Conservative and middle-class town of Kenilworth, and it was a major surprise when Labour won the seat in 1997 by 500 votes, and held it in 2001. In 2010 as the data below shows, the Conservatives won the seat on its present boundaries comfortably, but the town would have been close. The subsequent swing to the Conservatives (with a bump in 2017) more closely matches the national picture, than the large swings in the coalfield towns to the north-west. Despite the sizable 2019 majority, this is a seat which is not entirely safe for the Conservatives, although Labour could achieve a majority without it. MP here is Mark Pawsey who won the seat in 2010 after the sitting member opted for the new safer seat of Kenilworth & Southam. He was a small businessman and local councillor prior to his election, and is the son of the Conservative MP defeated here in 1997.
Warwickshire provided an unusually easy task for the Boundary Commission as the only change required (apart from realignment to new ward boundaries) was to move one ward from Warwick & Leamington to Kenilworth & Southam. They could have realigned the seats to match local authority boundaries, but chose not to.
Census data: Owner-occupied 70% (218/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (296th), social rented 14% (316th).
: White 90%, Black 2%, South Asian 4%, Mixed 2%, Other 2%
: Managerial & professional 36% (271st), Routine & Semi-routine 31% (246th)
: Degree level 27%(258th), No qualifications 34%(354th)
: Students 2.7% (407th), Over 65: 17% (244th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Conservative | 20,901 | 44.0% | 24,040 | 49.1% | 27,872 | 54.3% | 29,255 | 57.6% |
Labour | 14,901 | 31.4% | 13,695 | 27.9% | 19,660 | 38.3% | 15,808 | 31.1% |
Liberal Democrat | 9,434 | 19.9% | 2,776 | 5.7% | 2,851 | 5.6% | 4,207 | 8.3% |
UKIP | 406 | 0.9% | 6,855 | 14.0% | ||||
Green | 451 | 1.0% | 1,415 | 2.9% | 953 | 1.9% | 1,544 | 3.0% |
Others | 1,375 | 2.9% | 225 | 0.5% | ||||
Majority | 6,000 | 12.6% | 10,345 | 21.1% | 8,212 | 16.0% | 13,447 | 26.5% |
