ibfc
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Post by ibfc on Feb 28, 2023 7:42:39 GMT
There is an interestingism in how the election works. “Normally” (i.e. in quite a lot of countries), if no candidate gets 50% of the votes in the first round, then the top two candidates go through to the second round in which it is a straight fight between A and B. In Nigeria, a candidate can win in the first round if they: (a) get a plurality of the votes nationally and (b) get at least 25% of the votes in at least 24 out of 36 provinces. If no candidate wins in the first round, a second round is held between the top two candidates, and again the winner has to get 25% in 24/36 provinces. If no candidate wins in the 2nd round, then a third round is held in which the winner gets a majority of the popular vote, regardless of what happens in the provinces. In other words, the top candidate getting more than 50% of the votes is neither necessary nor sufficient for him to win in the first round. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerian_presidential_election#Electoral_systemThe bit about a potential third round is nonsense. You shouldn't believe everything you read on wikipedia. I've also seen competing statements on whether 50% of the votes is necessary in round 1 - that it's not sufficient is uncontroversial - but I think it indeed is not. Which is kinda good because I see Nigeria struggling at organizing a clean runoff election at three weeks notice. It’s not necessary which is why there’s a good chance Tinubu will win in the first round. |
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Post by rcronald on Feb 28, 2023 8:23:17 GMT
I can now project that Bola Tinubu has been elected.
Abubakar has surprisingly missed the 25% threshold in Benue state and unless he somehow passed the 25% threshold in states that are expected to give Peter Obi more than 70% of the vote, he has no path.
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Post by coolhandluke on Feb 28, 2023 14:19:02 GMT
To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a plurality of the votes and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The FCT "result" is important and has been presently declared with both APC and PDP failing to make the 25% threshold. Given the insurmountable evidence that is circulating on twitter of what seems like widespread doctoring of figures on the INEC Form EC8A from the local precincts upwards, is it conceivable (with widespread use of mobiles capturing evidence) that the Courts could have to annul the presidential counts? If not, this will now go to a second round but with present declarations ensuring Peter Obi will not be on the ballot? There looks to be real trouble brewing in Nigeria. A joint world press conference has now demanded fresh elections without INEC Chairman, Mahmud Yakubu, since "the elections conducted by INEC are irreparably and incurably damaged". |
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Post by rcronald on Feb 28, 2023 14:51:49 GMT
To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a plurality of the votes and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The FCT "result" is important and has been presently declared with both APC and PDP failing to make the 25% threshold. Given the insurmountable evidence that is circulating on twitter of what seems like widespread doctoring of figures on the INEC Form EC8A from the local precincts upwards, is it conceivable (with widespread use of mobiles capturing evidence) that the Courts could have to annul the presidential counts? If not, this will now go to a second round but with present declarations ensuring Peter Obi will not be on the ballot? There looks to be real trouble brewing in Nigeria. A joint world press conference has now demanded fresh elections without INEC Chairman, Mahmud Yakubu, since "the elections conducted by INEC are irreparably and incurably damaged". I don't know about other states, but there was widespread fraud in Lagos state against Peter Obi. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2023 16:20:37 GMT
To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a plurality of the votes and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The FCT "result" is important and has been presently declared with both APC and PDP failing to make the 25% threshold. Given the insurmountable evidence that is circulating on twitter of what seems like widespread doctoring of figures on the INEC Form EC8A from the local precincts upwards, is it conceivable (with widespread use of mobiles capturing evidence) that the Courts could have to annul the presidential counts? If not, this will now go to a second round but with present declarations ensuring Peter Obi will not be on the ballot? There looks to be real trouble brewing in Nigeria. A joint world press conference has now demanded fresh elections without INEC Chairman, Mahmud Yakubu, since "the elections conducted by INEC are irreparably and incurably damaged". I interpreted that to include the FCT in with the 36 states, ie that 23 states + FCT would be 24 and therefore sufficient |
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Post by coolhandluke on Feb 28, 2023 16:24:23 GMT
I don't know about other states, but there was widespread fraud in Lagos state against Peter Obi. The insurmountable evidence circulating on twitter looks to go way beyond just what happened in Lagos state. The joint world press conference demanding fresh elections is already reaping disclosure. We now have a PDP chairman in Lagos state, claiming on T.V. that from their situation room records, over 400,000 votes for Peter Obi appears to have been transferred to APC in Lagos state:
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Post by rcronald on Feb 28, 2023 16:28:22 GMT
I don't know about other states, but there was widespread fraud in Lagos state against Peter Obi. The insurmountable evidence circulating on twitter looks to go way beyond just what happened in Lagos state. The joint world press conference demanding fresh elections is already reaping disclosure. We now have a PDP chairman in Lagos state, claiming on T.V. that from their situation room records, over 400,000 votes for Peter Obi appears to have been transferred to APC in Lagos state:
The fact that Tinubu allegedly received slightly above 25% in a couple of States and Abubakar slightly below 25% in like 6 states is also very suspicious. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 28, 2023 16:50:26 GMT
To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a plurality of the votes and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The FCT "result" is important and has been presently declared with both APC and PDP failing to make the 25% threshold. Given the insurmountable evidence that is circulating on twitter of what seems like widespread doctoring of figures on the INEC Form EC8A from the local precincts upwards, is it conceivable (with widespread use of mobiles capturing evidence) that the Courts could have to annul the presidential counts? If not, this will now go to a second round but with present declarations ensuring Peter Obi will not be on the ballot? There looks to be real trouble brewing in Nigeria. A joint world press conference has now demanded fresh elections without INEC Chairman, Mahmud Yakubu, since "the elections conducted by INEC are irreparably and incurably damaged". I interpreted that to include the FCT in with the 36 states, ie that 23 states + FCT would be 24 and therefore sufficient it could mean “24 out of (36 plus FCT)” or “(24 out of 36) plus FCT” |
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 28, 2023 16:59:12 GMT
To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a plurality of the votes and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The FCT "result" is important and has been presently declared with both APC and PDP failing to make the 25% threshold. Given the insurmountable evidence that is circulating on twitter of what seems like widespread doctoring of figures on the INEC Form EC8A from the local precincts upwards, is it conceivable (with widespread use of mobiles capturing evidence) that the Courts could have to annul the presidential counts? If not, this will now go to a second round but with present declarations ensuring Peter Obi will not be on the ballot? There looks to be real trouble brewing in Nigeria. A joint world press conference has now demanded fresh elections without INEC Chairman, Mahmud Yakubu, since "the elections conducted by INEC are irreparably and incurably damaged". I interpreted that to include the FCT in with the 36 states, ie that 23 states + FCT would be 24 and therefore sufficient the constitutional text is "25% in 2/3 of the 36 states and the FCT". ie 25 in 25/37 would be the logical interpretation but I suppose you can, if you absolutely wanted to, read it as 25% in at least 24 states and 25% in the FCT. |
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Post by rcronald on Feb 28, 2023 17:00:27 GMT
I interpreted that to include the FCT in with the 36 states, ie that 23 states + FCT would be 24 and therefore sufficient it could mean “24 out of (36 plus FCT)” or “(24 out of 36) plus FCT” If it’s the latter, then every single candidate failed to achieve the necessary requirements. |
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Post by coolhandluke on Feb 28, 2023 17:06:26 GMT
I interpreted that to include the FCT in with the 36 states, ie that 23 states + FCT would be 24 and therefore sufficient The Nigerian constitution section 134 (2) (b) states that the 25% of the vote in the Federal Capital Territory is a separate requirement. On the present constitution, this has to go to a second round given both APC and PDP have failed to make the 25% threshold in Abuja, notwithstanding growing momentum for fresh elections for the first round. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 28, 2023 17:26:26 GMT
I interpreted that to include the FCT in with the 36 states, ie that 23 states + FCT would be 24 and therefore sufficient The Nigerian constitution section 134 (2) (b) states that the 25% of the vote in the Federal Capital Territory is a separate requirement. On the present constitution, this has to go to a second round given both APC and PDP have failed to make the 25% threshold in Abuja, notwithstanding growing momentum for fresh elections for the first round. That’s weird if it’s accurate. It means that the FCT has the power of veto on the whole election result, regardless of how overwhelming the result is elsewhere. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 28, 2023 17:59:29 GMT
The Nigerian constitution section 134 (2) (b) states that the 25% of the vote in the Federal Capital Territory is a separate requirement. On the present constitution, this has to go to a second round given both APC and PDP have failed to make the 25% threshold in Abuja, notwithstanding growing momentum for fresh elections for the first round. That’s weird if it’s accurate. It means that the FCT has the power of veto on the whole election result, regardless of how overwhelming the result is elsewhere. It also makes no sense whatsoever that a 19% result for Tinubu there would be released by the election commission if that were the meaning of the constitution and there was massive foul play in his favor in this election... |
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Post by coolhandluke on Feb 28, 2023 18:09:18 GMT
The Nigerian constitution section 134 (2) (b) states that the 25% of the vote in the Federal Capital Territory is a separate requirement. On the present constitution, this has to go to a second round given both APC and PDP have failed to make the 25% threshold in Abuja, notwithstanding growing momentum for fresh elections for the first round. That’s weird if it’s accurate. It means that the FCT has the power of veto on the whole election result, regardless of how overwhelming the result is elsewhere. Apologies, it does seem there is an ambiguity in the wording in the Nigerian Constitution upon closer inspection and, I agree, why would they place FCT over and above all other States? So it does looks like my interpretation that this will go to a second round won't hold on the basis of the vote share in the Federal Capital Territory? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 28, 2023 18:20:50 GMT
Don't worry, plenty of Nigerians arguing about this on twitter right atm.  Including, perhaps unavoidably, this take |
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ibfc
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Post by ibfc on Feb 28, 2023 20:39:13 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 28, 2023 20:39:54 GMT
I wonder, whether their Elec.Comm. - no live release of precinctRes., nothing in EXCEL aso. - is fraudulent or just incompetent.
Probably the latter...
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Post by rcronald on Mar 1, 2023 6:36:43 GMT
Every opposition party and practically every western country seem to think that the election was fraudulent.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 1, 2023 13:42:40 GMT
Its certainly worked out rather conveniently for a certain candidate, that seems clear enough.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 1, 2023 16:29:40 GMT
Looks to me like INEC benignly looks on while locals forge results or don't.
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