Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,798 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 10, 2020 12:27:43 GMT
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,692
Member is Online
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Post by mboy on Oct 21, 2020 13:45:53 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2023 21:45:28 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,798
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 12, 2023 22:23:11 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,798
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 26, 2023 22:06:34 GMT
Various proJections of the winners per state (thankfully taken from en.wikipedia):  |
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Post by rcronald on Feb 27, 2023 5:28:29 GMT
Various proJections of the winners per state (thankfully taken from en.wikipedia): Looks like Abubakar narrowly won Osun state, which was predicted by everyone (except ThisDay and the original SBM intel predictions ) to be a safe Tinubu state. |
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Post by rcronald on Feb 27, 2023 6:41:31 GMT
Various proJections of the winners per state (thankfully taken from en.wikipedia): Looks like Abubakar narrowly won Osun state, which was predicted by everyone (except ThisDay and the original SBM intel predictions ) to be a safe Tinubu state. He also won Katsina which was projected by most people to be a Tinubu state and is President Buhari’s home state. |
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Post by rcronald on Feb 27, 2023 6:43:38 GMT
Abubakar seems to be overperforming in every state declared so far.
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Post by rcronald on Feb 27, 2023 7:16:31 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Feb 27, 2023 9:51:37 GMT
Another shocking result:
Abubakar won Yobe state, the first PDP to win it since 1999.
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Post by rcronald on Feb 27, 2023 10:48:40 GMT
Peter Obi just beat Tinubu in Lagos.
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Post by rcronald on Feb 27, 2023 10:54:38 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Feb 27, 2023 17:17:54 GMT
Peter Obi received 94% of the vote in Enugu state 😅
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Post by rockefeller on Feb 27, 2023 18:52:29 GMT
Peter Obi received 94% of the vote in Enugu state 😅 I've seen Enugu |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 27, 2023 19:33:28 GMT
There is an interestingism in how the election works. “Normally” (i.e. in quite a lot of countries), if no candidate gets 50% of the votes in the first round, then the top two candidates go through to the second round in which it is a straight fight between A and B. In Nigeria, a candidate can win in the first round if they: (a) get a plurality of the votes nationally and (b) get at least 25% of the votes in at least 24 out of 36 provinces. If no candidate wins in the first round, a second round is held between the top two candidates, and again the winner has to get 25% in 24/36 provinces. If no candidate wins in the 2nd round, then a third round is held in which the winner gets a majority of the popular vote, regardless of what happens in the provinces. In other words, the top candidate getting more than 50% of the votes is neither necessary nor sufficient for him to win in the first round. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerian_presidential_election#Electoral_system |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2023 20:37:41 GMT
There is an interestingism in how the election works. “Normally” (i.e. in quite a lot of countries), if no candidate gets 50% of the votes in the first round, then the top two candidates go through to the second round in which it is a straight fight between A and B. In Nigeria, a candidate can win in the first round if they: (a) get a plurality of the votes nationally and (b) get at least 25% of the votes in at least 24 out of 36 provinces. If no candidate wins in the first round, a second round is held between the top two candidates, and again the winner has to get 25% in 24/36 provinces. If no candidate wins in the 2nd round, then a third round is held in which the winner gets a majority of the popular vote, regardless of what happens in the provinces. In other words, the top candidate getting more than 50% of the votes is neither necessary nor sufficient for him to win in the first round. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerian_presidential_election#Electoral_systemI suspect this is to mitigate against the chance that a president is elected with over 50% support amongst the population but extremely low (potentially even under 10%) against one or more ethnic or religious groups |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2023 0:02:06 GMT
Peter Obi received 94% of the vote in Enugu state 😅 A lot has apparently been made of Enugu's ethnicity - he would be the first Igbo president and apparently and Igbo advocacy organisation went as far as to publicly criticise another Igbo politician for accepting a running-mate position under a major party's candidate (who is Hausa-Fulani). Enugu is apparently mostly Igbo, so I suspect that ethnicity has played at leas some part in his performance |
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Post by rcronald on Feb 28, 2023 3:52:59 GMT
I can officially project that Peter Obi will not receive the necessary 25% in 25 states.
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Post by rcronald on Feb 28, 2023 5:15:51 GMT
I can officially project that Peter Obi will not receive the necessary 25% in 25 states. I think there’s a 50-50 chance Abubakar receives 25% from 25 states. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 28, 2023 6:30:36 GMT
There is an interestingism in how the election works. “Normally” (i.e. in quite a lot of countries), if no candidate gets 50% of the votes in the first round, then the top two candidates go through to the second round in which it is a straight fight between A and B. In Nigeria, a candidate can win in the first round if they: (a) get a plurality of the votes nationally and (b) get at least 25% of the votes in at least 24 out of 36 provinces. If no candidate wins in the first round, a second round is held between the top two candidates, and again the winner has to get 25% in 24/36 provinces. If no candidate wins in the 2nd round, then a third round is held in which the winner gets a majority of the popular vote, regardless of what happens in the provinces. In other words, the top candidate getting more than 50% of the votes is neither necessary nor sufficient for him to win in the first round. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerian_presidential_election#Electoral_systemThe bit about a potential third round is nonsense. You shouldn't believe everything you read on wikipedia. I've also seen competing statements on whether 50% of the votes is necessary in round 1 - that it's not sufficient is uncontroversial - but I think it indeed is not. Which is kinda good because I see Nigeria struggling at organizing a clean runoff election at three weeks notice. |
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