Northern Ireland Referendum 2019

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As a way of breaking the political deadlock in Northern Ireland and getting devolution restored, the government had decided to hold a three question referendum on the most contentious issues.

The referendum is held on local election day in 2019 which most likely means counting will be done on a per council rather than a per constituency basis.

The first questions is on bringing Northern Ireland’s abortion laws in line with England & Wales.

The second question is on brining Northern Ireland’s laws on same sex marriage in line with England & Wales.

The third question is on whether to introduce an Irish Language Act which would give the Irish language the same legal status in Northern Ireland as what the Welsh language has in Wales.

How do we think the campaign would have gone and what do we think the results would have been?

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The first two would have depended on turnout. Broadly speaking, people supported bringing those laws into line but I suspect the kind of religious zealots who oppose such things would probably have been more likely to vote so on a low turnout both would have lost but with an average to high turnout both should have passed.

The Irish language Act I have no idea

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Sept 26, 2020 13:42:26 GMT @europeanlefty said:

The first two would have depended on turnout. Broadly speaking, people supported bringing those laws into line but I suspect the kind of religious zealots who oppose such things would probably have been more likely to vote so on a low turnout both would have lost but with an average to high turnout both should have passed.

The Irish language Act I have no idea

It’s an interesting point on turnout.

The abortion referendum in the Irish Republic in 2018 had a turnout of 64%, the highest of any referendum since they voted to join the EEC in 1972.

If both the yes and no campaigns had managed to mobilise their supporters the same could have happened in Northern Ireland. So the question then would be what impact the increased turnout would have on the local elections.