Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 25, 2020 23:05:22 GMT
[The last 2 GEs have their own threads - perhaps the moderators could be so kind to integrate them here?]
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Georg Ebner
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Posts: 9,226
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 25, 2020 23:11:37 GMT
In Sabah a SnapElection is going on. As federal EarlyElections are widely expected, this is to some kind of a "dress" rehearsal. (But only to some extent: The situation in Sabah is doubtlessly very specific.) The only OpinionPoll at wikipedia has the BN-bloc narrowly ahead: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Sabah_state_election |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 26, 2020 15:49:38 GMT
The BN-bloc has won a majority (at least a narrow one): www.myundi.com.my/Making EarlyElections in few months highly likely. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 15, 2022 2:50:16 GMT
Johor had SnapElections, which were in the present climate easily won by BN, of course (even very easily, what makes federal EarlyElec. highly likely now). Here are the ConstituencyResults, ordered by - Const.number:  - Chinese-%:  - Winning alliance:  - Participation:  So very low participation in the Chinese constituencies, to which PH has been reduced to (few were won by BN's Chinese ally MCA). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 18, 2022 17:15:11 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 19, 2022 21:16:13 GMT
4 years ago, it appeared as obvious, that BN would fall apart with most departing to PN. But then came Corona and within the ruling PH-alliance PM Mahathir (BERSATU, later PEJUANG) refused to make place after 2 years for Anwar (PKR), as had been agreed. Mahathir brought with PKR-deFectors BN back into power. BN was polling sometimes 50% and Malaysia seemed to be returning to normality (=BN-rule). Yet today the 2018-scenario broke through: PH (~82, mainly in the south&west of the Malay penInsula) & PN (~73, mainly in the north&east) will dominate, with BN (~30) far behind. Regional parties from the Borneo-island might also play a role, at least GPS from Sarawak with its ~22 MPs, less so GRS from Sabah (~6). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2022_Malaysian_political_crisiswww.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2022/11/malaysia-ge-2022-live-election-results/index.htmlpru.astroawani.comPH's Anwar pretends to have the numbers (and PN had indeed claimed during the campaign, that BN's Zahid would plan a coalition with PH), but in theory PN&BN&GPS should be more likely? |
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Post by markgoodair on Nov 19, 2022 22:55:02 GMT
Malaysia is heading for the first hung Parliament in its history with former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad losing his seat in s specaular fashion winning only 4566 votes (6.8% ) compared with 34527 votes (54.9%) in the 2018 General Election.
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Post by ibfc on Nov 20, 2022 1:58:09 GMT
4 years ago, it appeared as obvious, that BN would fall apart with most departing to PN. But then came Corona and within the ruling PH-alliance PM Mahathir (BERSATU, later PEJUANG) refused to make place after 2 years for Anwar (PKR), as had been agreed. Mahathir brought with PKR-deFectors BN back into power. BN was polling sometimes 50% and Malaysia seemed to be returning to normality (=BN-rule). Yet today the 2018-scenario broke through: PH (~82, mainly in the south&west of the Malay penInsula) & PN (~73, mainly in the north&east) will dominate, with BN (~30) far behind. Regional parties from the Borneo-island might also play a role, at least GPS from Sarawak with its ~22 MPs, less so GRS from Sabah (~6). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2022_Malaysian_political_crisiswww.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2022/11/malaysia-ge-2022-live-election-results/index.htmlpru.astroawani.comPH's Anwar pretends to have the numbers (and PN had indeed claimed during the campaign, that BN's Zahid would plan a coalition with PH), but in theory PN&BN&GPS should be more likely? Yes, more likely that BN would back PN than PH but BN is in a catch 22. Backing PN would mean the death of BN as there's no real difference between UMNO and PPBM (the ex UMNO component of PN). On the other hand, it's Malay base won't tolerate a coalition with PH putting Anwar and the DAP in power. So very tough choices. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 20, 2022 3:15:28 GMT
Malaysia is heading for the first hung Parliament in its history with former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad losing his seat in s specaular fashion winning only 4566 votes (6.8% ) compared with 34527 votes (54.9%) in the 2018 General Election. Can't say that I'm not happy that the Nazi sympathizer lost. ☺️ |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 20, 2022 9:48:30 GMT
Fascinating result. Gotta say I love how Mahathir is going out, in a "they can make me do it, but they can't make me do it with dignity" sort of way.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 20, 2022 11:44:55 GMT
In all senses, the idea of retiring gracefully seems alien to him  |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 20, 2022 14:32:47 GMT
Malaysia is heading for the first hung Parliament in its history with former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad losing his seat in s specaular fashion winning only 4566 votes (6.8% ) compared with 34527 votes (54.9%) in the 2018 General Election. Can't say that I'm not happy that the Nazi sympathizer lost. ☺️ Right, although there have been - as You will know - many more national socialists all over the world. Certain rulers adored as anti-colonialists&capitalists by our lefties had even HITLER-portraits hanging publicly in their lobbies... |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,226
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 20, 2022 21:04:16 GMT
4 years ago, it appeared as obvious, that BN would fall apart with most departing to PN. But then came Corona and within the ruling PH-alliance PM Mahathir (BERSATU, later PEJUANG) refused to make place after 2 years for Anwar (PKR), as had been agreed. Mahathir brought with PKR-deFectors BN back into power. BN was polling sometimes 50% and Malaysia seemed to be returning to normality (=BN-rule). Yet today the 2018-scenario broke through: PH (~82, mainly in the south&west of the Malay penInsula) & PN (~73, mainly in the north&east) will dominate, with BN (~30) far behind. Regional parties from the Borneo-island might also play a role, at least GPS from Sarawak with its ~22 MPs, less so GRS from Sabah (~6). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2022_Malaysian_political_crisiswww.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2022/11/malaysia-ge-2022-live-election-results/index.htmlpru.astroawani.comPH's Anwar pretends to have the numbers (and PN had indeed claimed during the campaign, that BN's Zahid would plan a coalition with PH), but in theory PN&BN&GPS should be more likely? Yes, more likely that BN would back PN than PH but BN is in a catch 22. Backing PN would mean the death of BN as there's no real difference between UMNO and PPBM (the ex UMNO component of PN). On the other hand, it's Malay base won't tolerate a coalition with PH putting Anwar and the DAP in power. So very tough choices. Yes, that's exactly BN's position. In the last few weeks i now and again thought also about the similarities with Your country: A rather secular nationalism getting replaced by a religious one (already UMNO in se had developed more and more into that direction). This election has shown, that PH cannot easily expand beyond the liberal-westernized upper(middle)class (Chinese, Malay graduates). Even, if BN and PN had halved to equal parts the nat.-cons.-rel. Malay-vote, PH would have lost on a uniform swing few seats more to BN than gained from PN. Anti-inCumbency hitting PN&BN seems to be PH's only chance in the near future. |
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Post by markgoodair on Nov 24, 2022 8:16:33 GMT
Anmar Ibrahim has been appointed as the new Prime Minister.
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Post by ibfc on Nov 24, 2022 14:05:33 GMT
It’s a very interesting decision because the King (and/or the council of Rulers) has clearly facilitated this. Wonder what are the reasons behind the same. Would be quite ground breaking if it was distaste for PAS.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 28, 2022 20:21:15 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Posts: 9,226
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 12, 2023 10:46:40 GMT
Counting has begun. PN is spectacularily ahead in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan - and even in Penang -, but certainly only due to rural areas counted first.
Apropos rural seats: Paradoxically PN must hope to do there not too good, otherWise BN will support PH in drawing more urban constituencies...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 12, 2023 12:03:49 GMT
Still very early, but things are trending to the expected: 3 states for each side.
So PN will have increased their grip on Kedah, but have - as predicted by the opinionPolls - so far failed to assemble the Malayian majority in their camp.
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Post by ibfc on Aug 14, 2023 11:05:28 GMT
Negeri Sembilan staying with the government means enough Malays are voting for non Malay supremacist parties for there to be a competitive electoral landscape. One can say the legacy of Mahatir is being broken down.
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