Post by andrewp on Sept 25, 2020 12:42:33 GMT
Monmouth is the most South Easterly constituency in Wales, and includes the points on the M4 and M48 through which most travellers to South Wales cross the border. This is arguably the most ‘English’ of all Welsh constituencies- indeed there was a long dispute as to whether Monmouthshire was in England or Wales. This English tinge is reflected by Plaid Cymru, the Party of Wales, never having achieved more than 3.9% of the vote in a general election here in 15 attempts. 33% of residents here were born in England.
This constituency borders the eastern most South Wales Valley constituencies but this area of gently rolling hills could barely be more different to its neighbours. This lush countryside has become popular with commuters to Bristol, as well as Cardiff, in the last few decades, and particularly since the 2nd severn crossing was built, people have been attracted by the lower house prices in this part of the world compared to Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and Somerset. The constituency is 98% white and has quite an old age profile being in the top 50 constituencies in England and Wales for both the 45-64 and over 65 age groups.
Boundary changes have been relatively rare here, with the current boundaries having come into force in 1983 with the constituency having been left unchanged in the last 2 boundary reviews.
Monmouth itself ( population 11000) is actually the 3rd largest town in this constituency. Both Abergavenny and Chepstow are slightly larger.
Chepstow is Labour’s stongest part of the constituency. It’s a classic border town situated right in the South East corner of the constituency on the border on the River Wye, with an imposing castle looking down on the river. It is also home to a racecourse on which the Welsh Grand National is run. In 2017, the town elected 2 Labour councillors, 2 Conservatives and 1 Liberal Democrat
In the North West corner of the constituency we find the comfortable pretty market town of Abergavenny. Abargavenny is only 4 miles away from Blaenavon at the top of the Welsh valleys but is a much further distance away economically and politically. There is some Labour strength here though and it currently has 3 Labour and 2 Conservative wards.
Monmouth itself lies in the North Eastern corner of the constituency and is the most Conservative of the 3 largest towns. It elected a full slate of Conservative councillors in 2017. Monmouth too has a castle built in norman times.
Four rather detached wards are included from the Cwmbran area in the west of the constituency. These however are situated in Croesyceiliog and Llanyrafon and are more affluent than most of that new town.
The 4 areas described so far are probably quite close between the Conservatives and Labour. The Conservatives really build their majority in the rural centre of the seat. Affluent large villages and small towns like Usk and Raglan are as Conservative territory as can be found anywhere in Wales. The eastern border follows the picturesque Wye Valley as its winds it way through gorges, passing the 12th century Tintern Abbey.
Overall this adds up to a seat that is good for the Conservatives. If this were in England, it would quite probably have a much larger Conservative majority, but this is still Wales- Labour can win Monmouth. They have won it four times. In their three landslide elections of 1966, 1997 and 2001 and in a 1991 by election caused by the death of Conservative MP Sir John Stradling Thomas. In 1997, Huw Edwards gained the seat for Labour by 4000 votes and narrowly held on by 384 in 2001. In 2005 he was defeated by current Conservative MP David Davies, one of three Conservative victories in Wales that year following 2 wipeouts in 1997 and 2001. Following his initial win, Davies has won 4 further times with solid majorities. In 2019, Davies share actually went down 1% but Labour went down 4%. Davies majority in 2019 was 9,982, making it the second safest Conservative seat in Wales and Labour need a 10% swing to unseat him.
This constituency borders the eastern most South Wales Valley constituencies but this area of gently rolling hills could barely be more different to its neighbours. This lush countryside has become popular with commuters to Bristol, as well as Cardiff, in the last few decades, and particularly since the 2nd severn crossing was built, people have been attracted by the lower house prices in this part of the world compared to Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and Somerset. The constituency is 98% white and has quite an old age profile being in the top 50 constituencies in England and Wales for both the 45-64 and over 65 age groups.
Boundary changes have been relatively rare here, with the current boundaries having come into force in 1983 with the constituency having been left unchanged in the last 2 boundary reviews.
Monmouth itself ( population 11000) is actually the 3rd largest town in this constituency. Both Abergavenny and Chepstow are slightly larger.
Chepstow is Labour’s stongest part of the constituency. It’s a classic border town situated right in the South East corner of the constituency on the border on the River Wye, with an imposing castle looking down on the river. It is also home to a racecourse on which the Welsh Grand National is run. In 2017, the town elected 2 Labour councillors, 2 Conservatives and 1 Liberal Democrat
In the North West corner of the constituency we find the comfortable pretty market town of Abergavenny. Abargavenny is only 4 miles away from Blaenavon at the top of the Welsh valleys but is a much further distance away economically and politically. There is some Labour strength here though and it currently has 3 Labour and 2 Conservative wards.
Monmouth itself lies in the North Eastern corner of the constituency and is the most Conservative of the 3 largest towns. It elected a full slate of Conservative councillors in 2017. Monmouth too has a castle built in norman times.
Four rather detached wards are included from the Cwmbran area in the west of the constituency. These however are situated in Croesyceiliog and Llanyrafon and are more affluent than most of that new town.
The 4 areas described so far are probably quite close between the Conservatives and Labour. The Conservatives really build their majority in the rural centre of the seat. Affluent large villages and small towns like Usk and Raglan are as Conservative territory as can be found anywhere in Wales. The eastern border follows the picturesque Wye Valley as its winds it way through gorges, passing the 12th century Tintern Abbey.
Overall this adds up to a seat that is good for the Conservatives. If this were in England, it would quite probably have a much larger Conservative majority, but this is still Wales- Labour can win Monmouth. They have won it four times. In their three landslide elections of 1966, 1997 and 2001 and in a 1991 by election caused by the death of Conservative MP Sir John Stradling Thomas. In 1997, Huw Edwards gained the seat for Labour by 4000 votes and narrowly held on by 384 in 2001. In 2005 he was defeated by current Conservative MP David Davies, one of three Conservative victories in Wales that year following 2 wipeouts in 1997 and 2001. Following his initial win, Davies has won 4 further times with solid majorities. In 2019, Davies share actually went down 1% but Labour went down 4%. Davies majority in 2019 was 9,982, making it the second safest Conservative seat in Wales and Labour need a 10% swing to unseat him.
