Preview of Prediction Competition, September 2020-May 2021

[robbienicoll]

Hello all and welcome back.

I'm creating this thread with some trepidation as I expected some delay to the Scottish council by-elections already announced. As this hasn't happened (yet), we may be able to resume the competition. However, I believe the Scottish regulations allow for by-elections to be postponed even after the election date has been scheduled. Given the nature of how last minute these kinds of announcements are, it is likely a resumption of the competition in its current format would be affected. I've provided several options below for the next steps which regulars and potential newbies are welcome to comment on. I'll aim to have the new thread created at the weekend whatever the decision.

1 (and my personal preference). Scottish by-elections are rolled into one Exhibition Competition across all months, entries can be therefore be made all at once or week by week depending on preference. Doesn't affect form rankings or overall statistics.
2. Monthly competitions resume as normal. Any by-elections subject to delay will be counted in the month they are held in.
3. Monthly competitions resume as normal. Any by-elections subject to delay will be counted in the month of their original date (although this would be from today so does not affect Livingston South).
4. Other - open to suggestions.

[yellowperil]

Quite a conundrum. As if Scottish by-elections aren't difficult enough to get one's head round at the best of times. My own preference (I think) would be to carry on as near to normal as possible and adjust as necessary when circumstances change, so I think that's your option 2. However others may think differently and I am happy to listen to the majority, if such a thing exists.

[andrewp]

I think from a prediction competition point of view, the electoral system used makes Scottish By elections my least favourites! And the ones that I am least interested in.

I think my preference is for number 1 as it avoids the when does it count choice. Or we could do one competition for the period Oct- Christmas ( if any take place before then) and one for Jan- April.

[yellowperil]

Sept 23, 2020 17:33:48 GMT andrewp said:

I think from a prediction competition point of view, the electoral system used makes Scottish By elections my least favourites! And the ones that I am least interested in.

I think my preference is for number 1 as it avoids the when does it count choice. Or we could do one competition for the period Oct- Christmas ( if any take place before then) and one for Jan- April.

Actually I think the Scottish system is quite interesting. Just difficult to get my head round!

[iainbhx]

Happy to go on with whichever you like but a mild preference for option 1.

[Tony Otim]

Option 2, I think, competition for elections when and if they actually happen regardless of when they're supposed to happen.

[Tony Otim]

Another consideration - under normal rules we'd exclude the Western Isles on 8th October as there's no party candidate.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Sept 24, 2020 11:44:31 GMT Tony Otim said:

Another consideration - under normal rules we'd exclude the Western Isles on 8th October as there's no party candidate.

Normal rules don't seem to apply at the moment.

[ricmk]

Predicting whether the elections will go ahead seems the key challenge.

I’d obviously like to remain as weekly champ for as long as possible so suggest we make it informal at first, as much to see if by-elections are viable first. I guess Option 1 is closest to that? As others have said, Scottish by-elections can be challenging, and for me at least feel more remote and less engaging.

[johnloony]

You shouldn't do option 3, because it would be too fiddlious to keep track of when they are supposed to be.

[peterl]

Keep it going for now, but then randomly announce that the competition has been postponed and will resume at a date to be announced following a further review.

Or failing that, option 2.

[robbienicoll]

Thanks all for your responses. I'm going to go with a modified Option 2. Given that there are only three contests scheduled for October, two of which are in the islands, and the third falls over the Scottish half term so will likely be delayed, I'm going to hold off until November before resuming the competition as normal. Hopefully by that point there should be more consistency with the timescales moving forward.

[yellowperil]

I'm going to post a prediction for today's election here, just for the hell of it. I know it doesn't count (and if it had I 'd already got ruinous late entry faults) but it's so long since we've been able to do so.....

Ind (Woodbridge) 55, Ind (Stevens) 37, Lab 5, ND (Adams)3. Those are percentages, but they might as well be actual votes...

[The Bishop]

Well it seems nobody else has entered, so as things stand you are the "winner"

[yellowperil]

Oct 1, 2020 12:24:56 GMT The Bishop said:

Well it seems nobody else has entered, so as things stand you are the "winner"

No, I probably get 100 or so faults, and everybody else stays on zero.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Oct 1, 2020 13:34:50 GMT yellowperil said:

Oct 1, 2020 12:24:56 GMT The Bishop said:

Well it seems nobody else has entered, so as things stand you are the "winner"

No, I probably get 100 or so faults, and everybody else stays on zero.

As you're making robbienicoll work overtime your punishment could be even worse that.

[yellowperil]

Oct 1, 2020 13:45:45 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Oct 1, 2020 13:34:50 GMT yellowperil said:

No, I probably get 100 or so faults, and everybody else stays on zero.

As you're making robbienicoll work overtime your punishment could be even worse that.

I really wasn't expecting robbienicoll to do anything with it, I hasten to state. He had already said he wasn't starting before November at the earliest  so this was a prediction but not in any real sense a competition entry. Just an oportunity for everyone to have a good laugh at how little I know about Orcadian local politics.