For slightly different reasons. The Conservatives are wondering if they can get councillors elected from below quota. The SNP are wondering is life long hardcore LD and Labour voters might vote Yes the once that it matters
Does anyone have the first preference votes? The votes recorded above are after the final transfers at stage 5. Percentage changes are not meaningful, unless we compare first preference votes yesterday with the first preference votes in 2017.
Green transfers increased the SNP lead marginally Labour and Lib Dem transfers essentially split evenly, with a very fractional increase for SNP
Not really. Green: SNP+43, Con +5 Lab: SNP+32, Con+18 LD: SNP+159, Con+161
Thank you for taking the time to confirm exactly what I said, that the Greens split to the SNP and increased their lead marginally (i.e, by 38 votes), but that Labour and Lib Dems together ended up increasing the SNP lead by 12, a very fractional increase and essentially splitting evenly when you take into account those two parties got 519 combined first preferences between them.
On those figures, the Cons could safely field 2 candidates in the all-ups in 2022, with every expectation of gaining a seat off the LDs.
Not sure that's right- I suspect people might vote differently in an all-up election. Or are you just "advising" the Tories to split their vote?
Well, obviously in the all-ups incumbency comes into play. But 40% is two quotas of votes and virtually no chance of dropping below 20%. I think we are seeing, from a LD point of view, the effect of de-targetting Gordon.
“If the brain were so simple we could understand it, we would be so simple we couldn't.” (Lyall Watson)
Post by middleenglander on Oct 16, 2020 16:37:23 GMT
Aberdeenshire, Ellon & District - SNP hold - based on first preference votes
Swing Conservative to SNP 4.9% since 2017 but SNP to Conservative 16½% since 2012 and, less meaningful, 12¾% since 2007
Council now 19 SNP, 18 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 9 Aligned Independent, 1 Labour, 9 Others
Of the 692 votes to the bottom 3 parties, 233 ultimately transferred to SNP, 182 to the Conservatives and 216 (31%) did not transfer, - giving SNP a majority of 76 (2.0%) over the Conservative candidate.
"Kings reign by Me, says Eternal Wisdom: and from that we must conclude not only that the rights of royalty are established by its laws, but also that the choice of persons is an effect of its providence." Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet