maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
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Post by maxque on Oct 16, 2020 13:31:26 GMT
Looks like the transfers broke the following way: Green transfers increased the SNP lead marginally Labour and Lib Dem transfers essentially split evenly, with a very fractional increase for SNP Not really. Green: SNP+43, Con +5 Lab: SNP+32, Con+18 LD: SNP+159, Con+161 |
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Post by robert1 on Oct 16, 2020 13:32:23 GMT
Fascinating looking at the results over last 3 elections. Movements of the different parties.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 16, 2020 13:35:51 GMT
SNP - 1683 (42.4%) Con - 1658 (41.7%) Lib Dem - 405 (10.2%) Lab - 114 (2.9%) Green - 112 (2.8%) On those figures, the Cons could safely field 2 candidates in the all-ups in 2022, with every expectation of gaining a seat off the LDs. Not sure that's right- I suspect people might vote differently in an all-up election. Or are you just "advising" the Tories to split their vote? |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Oct 16, 2020 13:41:03 GMT
Looks like the transfers broke the following way: Green transfers increased the SNP lead marginally Labour and Lib Dem transfers essentially split evenly, with a very fractional increase for SNP Not really. Green: SNP+43, Con +5 Lab: SNP+32, Con+18 LD: SNP+159, Con+161 Thank you for taking the time to confirm exactly what I said, that the Greens split to the SNP and increased their lead marginally (i.e, by 38 votes), but that Labour and Lib Dems together ended up increasing the SNP lead by 12, a very fractional increase and essentially splitting evenly when you take into account those two parties got 519 combined first preferences between them. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 16, 2020 14:24:32 GMT
On those figures, the Cons could safely field 2 candidates in the all-ups in 2022, with every expectation of gaining a seat off the LDs. Not sure that's right- I suspect people might vote differently in an all-up election. Or are you just "advising" the Tories to split their vote? Well, obviously in the all-ups incumbency comes into play. But 40% is two quotas of votes and virtually no chance of dropping below 20%. I think we are seeing, from a LD point of view, the effect of de-targetting Gordon. |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 16, 2020 16:37:23 GMT
Aberdeenshire, Ellon & District - SNP hold - based on first preference votes | Party | 2020 votes | 2020 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,683 | 42.3% | +10.6% | -7.9% | +1.9% | | Conservative | 1,658 | 41.7% | +0.8% | +25.0% | +27.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 405 | 10.2% | -9.5% | -6.2% | -21.6% | | Labour | 114 | 2.9% | -4.7% | -6.6% | -4.7%% | | Green | 112 | 2.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -7.1% | -5.8% | | Total votes | 3,972 |
| 72% | 94% | 65% |
Swing Conservative to SNP 4.9% since 2017 but SNP to Conservative 16½% since 2012 and, less meaningful, 12¾% since 2007
Council now 19 SNP, 18 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 9 Aligned Independent, 1 Labour, 9 Others
Of the 692 votes to the bottom 3 parties, 233 ultimately transferred to SNP, 182 to the Conservatives and 216 (31%) did not transfer,
- giving SNP a majority of 76 (2.0%) over the Conservative candidate.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Oct 27, 2020 16:07:53 GMT
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