Local Council by-election 15th October 2020

[Tony Otim]

If it goes ahead:

ABERDEENSHIRE UA; Ellon and District (SNP resigned after being elected MP for Gordon).
Candidates:
BENNETT, John David (Labour)
CRAWLEY, John Paul (Conservative)
KENNEDY, Peter Alexander (Green)
MASON, Trevor Booth (Liberal Democrat)
McALLISTER, Louise (SNP)

2017: Con 2258; SNP 987, 768; LD 1087; Lab 415
(The boundaried for this ward were unchanged in the 2017 changes):
2012: SNP 1644, 474; Con 705; LD 689; Lab 399; Ind 300
2007: SNP 2458; LD 1407, 524; Con 872; Lab 456; Ind 352


Current Council: 18 Con; 18 SNP; 14 LD; 9 Aligned Independent (incl 3 ex-Con); 3 Independent; 2 Democratic Independent and Green (1 Grn, 1 Ind); 2 Social Democratic Group (both ex-SNP); 1 Lab; 1 Unaligned (a thoroughly disreputable individual ); 1 Unaligned Independent (ex-Con); 1 vacancy

[samdwebber]

This one still going ahead then like Orkney and Eilean Siar?

[boogieeck]

The Conservatives have thrown the kitchen sink at this. If they lose badly, I want you all to point and laugh

[jollyroger93]

Will be interesting to see what happens in this seat. If our vote drops to around 35% I’d say we were on around 22% nationally. If the SNP vote is north of 45% I’d say they are close to 50% nationally.

[Chris from Brum]

Well, it happened yesterday, so I presume counting is ongoing now?

[timmullen1]

Oct 16, 2020 9:57:12 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Well, it happened yesterday, so I presume counting is ongoing now?

BBC Scotland’s Davy Shanks Tweeted 45 minutes ago that the ballot boxes had arrived at Woodhill House for the count.

[robbienicoll]

SNP have won, 33.7% turnout according to Northsound.

[robbienicoll]

SNP - 1683 (42.4%)
Con - 1658 (41.7%)
Lib Dem - 405 (10.2%) 
Lab - 114 (2.9%)
Green - 112 (2.8%)

[jollyroger93]

Oct 16, 2020 11:21:53 GMT robbienicoll said:

SNP - 1683
Con - 1658
Lib Dem - 405
Lab - 114
Green - 112

Those First preferences Robbie?

[robbienicoll]

Oct 16, 2020 11:22:51 GMT jollyroger93 said:

Oct 16, 2020 11:21:53 GMT robbienicoll said:

SNP - 1683
Con - 1658
Lib Dem - 405
Lab - 114
Green - 112

Those First preferences Robbie?

Yes, I'm updating the percentages just now but it must have gone to the final round as Labour and Greens wouldn't have been enough to take the SNP over 50%.

[jollyroger93]

Oct 16, 2020 11:29:07 GMT robbienicoll said:

Oct 16, 2020 11:22:51 GMT jollyroger93 said:

Those First preferences Robbie?

Yes, I'm updating the percentages just now but it must have gone to the final round as Labour and Greens wouldn't have been enough to take the SNP over 50%.

Will be interesting to see the break down, with so few votes in it on First preference I'm surprised the SNP nabbed it.

[andrewp]

Oct 16, 2020 11:21:53 GMT robbienicoll said:

SNP - 1683 (42.4%)
Con - 1658 (41.7%)
Lib Dem - 405 (10.2%) 
Lab - 114 (2.9%)
Green - 112 (2.8%)

Changes from 2017

SNP +10.6
Con +0.8
LD -9.5
Lab -4.7

[andrewp]

Oct 16, 2020 11:32:49 GMT evergreenadam said:

Oct 16, 2020 11:29:07 GMT robbienicoll said:

Yes, I'm updating the percentages just now but it must have gone to the final round as Labour and Greens wouldn't have been enough to take the SNP over 50%.

Tory slippage in Scotland since 2017 high point.

Their share actually went up slightly.

[No Offence Alan]

Oct 16, 2020 11:21:53 GMT robbienicoll said:

SNP - 1683 (42.4%)
Con - 1658 (41.7%)
Lib Dem - 405 (10.2%) 
Lab - 114 (2.9%)
Green - 112 (2.8%)

On those figures, the Cons could safely field 2 candidates in the all-ups in 2022, with every expectation of gaining a seat off the LDs.

[jollyroger93]

Oct 16, 2020 11:35:40 GMT andrewp said:

Oct 16, 2020 11:21:53 GMT robbienicoll said:

SNP - 1683 (42.4%)
Con - 1658 (41.7%)
Lib Dem - 405 (10.2%) 
Lab - 114 (2.9%)
Green - 112 (2.8%)

Changes from 2017

SNP +10.6
Con +0.8
LD -9.5
Lab -4.7

Genuinely was expecting a slight drop in the blue vote, clear that a fair chunk of labour and Lib Dem vote went straight over to the SNP. So the fact we are up by almost a percent is I suppose some welcome news. 

[Merseymike]

Oct 16, 2020 11:47:54 GMT jollyroger93 said:

Oct 16, 2020 11:35:40 GMT andrewp said:

Changes from 2017

SNP +10.6
Con +0.8
LD -9.5
Lab -4.7

Genuinely was expecting a slight drop in the blue vote, clear that a fair chunk of labour and Lib Dem vote went straight over to the SNP. So the fact we are up by almost a percent is I suppose some welcome news. 

Given the recent rise in support for independence and the fact this is clearly a two horse race, it's quite a logical result

[boogieeck]

That is clearly a good result for SNP and not a bad one for the Conservatives

Ongoing irrelevance for the LDs who nevertheless remain in power in Aberdeenshire and will continue to be so.

[boogieeck]

SNP candidate for Banff and Buchan Coast in May 2020 is in the adjacent ward

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Quietly pleased with this result. It would've been better to win, but a good omen for next year. With the SNP reigniting the independence question, that will also have, and will, play(ed) into our hands.

[boogieeck]

Oct 16, 2020 11:21:53 GMT robbienicoll said:

SNP - 1683 (42.4%)
Con - 1658 (41.7%)
Lib Dem - 405 (10.2%) 
Lab - 114 (2.9%)
Green - 112 (2.8%)

2017: Con 2258; SNP 987, 768; LD 1087; Lab 415
(The boundaried for this ward were unchanged in the 2017 changes):
2012: SNP 1644, 474; Con 705; LD 689; Lab 399; Ind 300
2007: SNP 2458; LD 1407, 524; Con 872; Lab 456; Ind 352

On reflection that is a really good result for the Conservatives. I would not have expected them to hold onto their 2017 which I regarded as a high water mark. The days of coming below quota and sweating over transfers are certainly over 

The SNP have also returned to their high water mark and it looks as if both are consolidated at around 40% with also rans dependent on undermomination. The SNP  can also be happy that they appear to not be transfer toxic,