Post by yellowfox on Sept 16, 2020 22:56:50 GMT
In 2003 the Lab-LD Government won 67 seats, of course 65 are needed for a majority so very slight difference could have brought radically different parliamentary arithmetic.
Not wanting to fracture the rainbow parliament further lets have the SNP and Tories achieve a universal 2.5% swing in the constituencies against Labour and the Lib Dems without changing the list seats - this obviously wouldn't happen but we can skip over that for now. Lets also say the SNP gain the Western Isles from Labour due to local issues because why the hell not.
SNP gains from Labour: Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, Kilmarnock & Loudoun, Dundee West, Western Isles (4)
SNP gains from LDs: Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale (1)
Con gains from Labour: Dumfries (1)
This would have gave us a parliament like so:
Government (61)
Labour - 45
Lib Dems - 16
Opposition (68)
SNP - 32
Con - 19
Green - 7
SSP - 6
SSCUP - 1
Jean Turner (Save Stobhill Hospital) - 1
Dennis Canavan - 1
Margo MacDonald - 1
Presumably the only stable government would be Labour-LD-Green, but how does this impact politics going forward? Does the regression back to mainstream parties in 2007 not occur/is minimised? Would Swinney be able to hold onto the SNP leadership, and without Salmond no SNP government in 2007? Do the Greens get wiped out like they did in Ireland in 2011?
Not wanting to fracture the rainbow parliament further lets have the SNP and Tories achieve a universal 2.5% swing in the constituencies against Labour and the Lib Dems without changing the list seats - this obviously wouldn't happen but we can skip over that for now. Lets also say the SNP gain the Western Isles from Labour due to local issues because why the hell not.
SNP gains from Labour: Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, Kilmarnock & Loudoun, Dundee West, Western Isles (4)
SNP gains from LDs: Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale (1)
Con gains from Labour: Dumfries (1)
This would have gave us a parliament like so:
Government (61)
Labour - 45
Lib Dems - 16
Opposition (68)
SNP - 32
Con - 19
Green - 7
SSP - 6
SSCUP - 1
Jean Turner (Save Stobhill Hospital) - 1
Dennis Canavan - 1
Margo MacDonald - 1
Presumably the only stable government would be Labour-LD-Green, but how does this impact politics going forward? Does the regression back to mainstream parties in 2007 not occur/is minimised? Would Swinney be able to hold onto the SNP leadership, and without Salmond no SNP government in 2007? Do the Greens get wiped out like they did in Ireland in 2011?
