Post by The Bishop on Sept 13, 2020 21:07:38 GMT
Carlisle is Cumbria's only city and its biggest urban centre, and dates back to Roman times and very likely even earlier. Once a heavily fortified garrison just south of the border with Scotland (important military installations have remained nearby into the last few years) it became a merchant centre when the importance of the castle faded, and then a major mill town with the arrival of the railways which turned it into an important transport hub. Until that time settlement had been mostly confined within the old city walls, resulting in some notorious overcrowded slums - and real expansion did not come until the construction of major council estates on the periphery in the first half of the 20th century. In recent years it has become the centre of the University of Cumbria, and has easily the highest proportion of students in the county. It also has slightly lower than average figures for Cumbria regarding its ethnic homogeneity (under 98% white and 95% "white British")
It has sent an MP to parliament pretty much continuously since medieval times, and following the 1832 Reform Act was Liberal for most of the period subsequently until WW1. As with most other Cumbrian seats Labour only became a force after then, indeed 1918 was the first time a Labour candidate even stood (though the first 1910 GE was notable for one of the final electoral interventions of the once powerful Social Democratic Federation) and whilst a "Coalition" Liberal candidate beat them 2 to 1 on that occasion, Labour broke through to win in 1922 against evenly split Tory and "National Liberal" opposition. Labour lost to the Tories in 1924, won again in 1929 but then lost in the 1931 drubbing, and did not subsequently win Carlisle back until 1945.
Fairly comfortable Labour wins then and in 1950 were ultimately overturned by a 4% Tory swing in 1955 (above average for that election, especially in marginals) which saw the victory of Donald Johnson, a medical doctor and one of the parliamentary "characters" of his day. His outspokenness led to him falling out with much of his local party and he was effectively deselected before the 1964 GE - he stood as an Independent then but only polled a few per cent as the seat returned to the Labour column with Ronald Lewis who was already a near veteran after having fought no fewer than five previous seats unsuccessfully since 1945. Having broken his duck, however, he proceeded to go on a continuous winning run until 1983 - though that last contest (when he was in his 74th year) saw him squeak home by just 71 votes, making Carlisle the most marginal Labour seat in the whole election.
The closeness of that contest may have influenced Labour's selection of very much a local man, Eric Martlew, as their new standard bearer for the 1987 GE. Though the Tory vote increased to over 40%, Labour won by over 900 votes then - and by over 3k in 1992. Their gradual move to security then came under at least theoretical threat, however, as boundary changes finally meant more rural territory to its west being tacked on to the seat. Until then, the constituency had almost invariably been tightly drawn around the city itself - however this had led to it becoming increasingly undersized, and the 1973 local government reforms had meant the new Carlisle district council taking in large swathes of rural territory in all directions (which meant that, unlike the old Westminster seat, Labour have only been able to get control in good years for the party - whilst in the city itself the Tories have only a few bankers, notably Belah and Stanwix wards) Thwarted in this ambition before 1983, the Tories finally got their long standing wish - only for their unpopularity after 1992 to make it all academic anyway. Martlew stormed to a win of 12k votes and 28% come 1997, the new mostly rural additions and all.
As elsewhere in Cumbria come 2001, foot and mouth hit Labour and their majority more than halved with a 6% swing to the Tories - who had also swept to an overall majority in the district council in 1999 all-out elections. They were thus optimistic going into 2005, but Martlew held on with almost no adverse swing at all. Labour also recovered in local terms to make the council hung again, but this rosy outlook was disrupted by Martlew's unexpected announcement that he would stand down at the coming GE (he was only 61 when he retired) and a then somewhat acrimonious battle within the local Labour ranks to succeed him. A swing of 6% at the 2010 GE saw a win by 800 votes for John Stephenson, the only Tory gain in Cumbria that year. Labour had high hopes of reversing that in 2015, but a bitterly disappointing result for them saw Stephenson's majority increase to over 2.5k - as in other places the LibDem collapse seemed to benefit the Tories more than Labour, whilst the 12% for UKIP seemed to come at least equally from both "main" parties. 2017 saw Labour's share increase by 6% (which would surely have won it for them two years earlier) but the plunge in the previous UKIP vote meant Stephenson's majority was hardly dented. A 60% vote for Brexit in the 2016 referendum mean that any "Brexit election" was only likely to go one way here - and come last December the Tory share leapt to 55% and Stephenson luxuriated in a winning margin of over 8k and 19% of the vote (a minor curiosity, the UKIP share of 2.4% was the highest anywhere in the UK) A harbinger of this might also have been seen in the local council elections earlier that year - an all out contest after boundary changes saw the Tories emerge as the biggest party despite their poor showing nationally, Labour seeing below average votes and turnouts in their traditionally safe estates in the east and south of the city (Independents now dominate Botcherby at local level, whilst Labour dropping a seat to UKIP by a single vote was particularly embarrassing)
That is the sort of margin that is difficult - though far from impossible - to lose in a single election save for a 1997 style anti-government landslide, but still Stephenson should maybe not rest on his laurels. This seat contains a large number of traditional "swing" voters who could yet be won over to a "time for a change appeal" after over a decade of Tory government, and Brexit being less of a factor could help Labour recover. Close contests have been a regular occurrence for this seat in the last century, and could well be so in the future too.
It has sent an MP to parliament pretty much continuously since medieval times, and following the 1832 Reform Act was Liberal for most of the period subsequently until WW1. As with most other Cumbrian seats Labour only became a force after then, indeed 1918 was the first time a Labour candidate even stood (though the first 1910 GE was notable for one of the final electoral interventions of the once powerful Social Democratic Federation) and whilst a "Coalition" Liberal candidate beat them 2 to 1 on that occasion, Labour broke through to win in 1922 against evenly split Tory and "National Liberal" opposition. Labour lost to the Tories in 1924, won again in 1929 but then lost in the 1931 drubbing, and did not subsequently win Carlisle back until 1945.
Fairly comfortable Labour wins then and in 1950 were ultimately overturned by a 4% Tory swing in 1955 (above average for that election, especially in marginals) which saw the victory of Donald Johnson, a medical doctor and one of the parliamentary "characters" of his day. His outspokenness led to him falling out with much of his local party and he was effectively deselected before the 1964 GE - he stood as an Independent then but only polled a few per cent as the seat returned to the Labour column with Ronald Lewis who was already a near veteran after having fought no fewer than five previous seats unsuccessfully since 1945. Having broken his duck, however, he proceeded to go on a continuous winning run until 1983 - though that last contest (when he was in his 74th year) saw him squeak home by just 71 votes, making Carlisle the most marginal Labour seat in the whole election.
The closeness of that contest may have influenced Labour's selection of very much a local man, Eric Martlew, as their new standard bearer for the 1987 GE. Though the Tory vote increased to over 40%, Labour won by over 900 votes then - and by over 3k in 1992. Their gradual move to security then came under at least theoretical threat, however, as boundary changes finally meant more rural territory to its west being tacked on to the seat. Until then, the constituency had almost invariably been tightly drawn around the city itself - however this had led to it becoming increasingly undersized, and the 1973 local government reforms had meant the new Carlisle district council taking in large swathes of rural territory in all directions (which meant that, unlike the old Westminster seat, Labour have only been able to get control in good years for the party - whilst in the city itself the Tories have only a few bankers, notably Belah and Stanwix wards) Thwarted in this ambition before 1983, the Tories finally got their long standing wish - only for their unpopularity after 1992 to make it all academic anyway. Martlew stormed to a win of 12k votes and 28% come 1997, the new mostly rural additions and all.
As elsewhere in Cumbria come 2001, foot and mouth hit Labour and their majority more than halved with a 6% swing to the Tories - who had also swept to an overall majority in the district council in 1999 all-out elections. They were thus optimistic going into 2005, but Martlew held on with almost no adverse swing at all. Labour also recovered in local terms to make the council hung again, but this rosy outlook was disrupted by Martlew's unexpected announcement that he would stand down at the coming GE (he was only 61 when he retired) and a then somewhat acrimonious battle within the local Labour ranks to succeed him. A swing of 6% at the 2010 GE saw a win by 800 votes for John Stephenson, the only Tory gain in Cumbria that year. Labour had high hopes of reversing that in 2015, but a bitterly disappointing result for them saw Stephenson's majority increase to over 2.5k - as in other places the LibDem collapse seemed to benefit the Tories more than Labour, whilst the 12% for UKIP seemed to come at least equally from both "main" parties. 2017 saw Labour's share increase by 6% (which would surely have won it for them two years earlier) but the plunge in the previous UKIP vote meant Stephenson's majority was hardly dented. A 60% vote for Brexit in the 2016 referendum mean that any "Brexit election" was only likely to go one way here - and come last December the Tory share leapt to 55% and Stephenson luxuriated in a winning margin of over 8k and 19% of the vote (a minor curiosity, the UKIP share of 2.4% was the highest anywhere in the UK) A harbinger of this might also have been seen in the local council elections earlier that year - an all out contest after boundary changes saw the Tories emerge as the biggest party despite their poor showing nationally, Labour seeing below average votes and turnouts in their traditionally safe estates in the east and south of the city (Independents now dominate Botcherby at local level, whilst Labour dropping a seat to UKIP by a single vote was particularly embarrassing)
That is the sort of margin that is difficult - though far from impossible - to lose in a single election save for a 1997 style anti-government landslide, but still Stephenson should maybe not rest on his laurels. This seat contains a large number of traditional "swing" voters who could yet be won over to a "time for a change appeal" after over a decade of Tory government, and Brexit being less of a factor could help Labour recover. Close contests have been a regular occurrence for this seat in the last century, and could well be so in the future too.
