Post by The Bishop on Sept 11, 2020 20:53:03 GMT
A constituency of this name has existed since the 1918 general election, in the century since its main centre has always been the coastal industrial town of Workington but the boundaries have otherwise been fairly flexible over the years - though they have generally shifted northwards over time and the seat now has a significant border with Carlisle to its north east. Its other biggest towns have been Maryport and (since 1950) Cockermouth, with Aspatria another significant urban centre that was added in 1997. There are also a fair number of largeish villages in Workington's vicinity, which historically served the Cumberland coalfield which was however shut down by the early 1980s causing quite a bit of local hardship. Workington itself was not unaffected by this and also suffered with the more recent closure of its once substantial local steel industry. Even by Cumbrian standards this area has a quite insular feel in certain parts, and this is reflected in its being over 99% white - the highest figure in all of England/Wales (and just edging out neighbouring Penrith & the Border for that title) But at least some of the old mining villages have now become attractive to commuters, and the seat also contains a significant slice of genuine rural territory, plus the NW corner of the Cumbrian mountains.
Prior to 1918 the town of Workington was contained in the old Cockermouth seat, Labour stood in the last few elections before its demise but made relatively little impression on what was still a close Tory/Liberal battle. Then the seat was split into a redrawn Cockermouth/Penrith division and the new (until 1950 fairly compact) Workington seat, and given previous form it may have surprised some to see Labour win with over half the vote. And things stayed that way - Labour won by 55-45 over the Tories even in their epochal disaster year of 1931, were actually unopposed in 1935 and then won by nearly 3 to 1 a decade later. A major redrawing then saw the seat significantly expanded and taking in Cockermouth and a swathe of countryside - this made the Tories more competitive but did not seriously threaten Labour's grip on the seat - results remaining roughly in the 60-40 range with remarkably low swings overall, until the Liberals showed up in the second 1974 GE for the first time since the original contest for this seat in 1918.
They made little impression then and Labour still won by approaching 10k, so moving the veteran MP Fred Peart (first elected in 1945) to the Lords two years later appeared reasonable despite the government's precarious parliamentary position. However, in the byelection Tory hopeful Richard Page (who had stood in both 1974 elections, even achieving a small pro-Tory swing in the first against the national trend) pulled off a famous victory by just over a thousand votes and a 13% swing. The beaten Labour candidate then, Dale Campbell-Savours (a man of Keswick, in this seat until 2010) duly got his revenge in 1979 and indeed won fairly comfortably whilst Page soon resumed his political career, for rather longer, in Hertfordshire - Campbell-Savours afterwards consolidating his position until he had a majority of close to 20k and 40% in his final election of 1997.
However in 2001 there was an above average swing to the Tories, partly due to the foot and mouth epidemic that devastated much of Cumbria, and new MP (and former MEP) Tony Cunningham saw the Labour majority almost halved. Unlike in other Cumbrian seats, though, there were further swings to the Tories in both subsequent polls, and by 2010 (Cunningham's last outing) Workington had become semi-marginal. There were also indications of some trouble for Labour at local level in that time - both UKIP and even the semi-moribund BNP polled strongly in some local wards and prior to the 2013 county elections some veteran Labour councillors in Workington town were deselected in acrimonious circumstances, only to be easily re-elected as Independents.
So in 2015 the new Labour hopeful Sue Hayman knew she had a fight on her hands, she actually managed a tiny swing and increase in the Labour majority but could hardly have failed to notice the strong third place - with nearly 20% of the vote - for UKIP's candidate, one Mark Jenkinson. The following year this constituency voted for Brexit by about 60-40, and the subsequent UKIP collapse made Tories confident of exploiting that come the 2017 GE. In the event Hayman was returned with over 51% - Labour's best share since 2001 - but there was still a small pro-Tory swing as the 16 point drop in UKIP's share split more in their favour, as expected. Any thoughts Labour might have seen off the threat, though, were surely dashed by results in the 2019 district council elections that were little short of disastrous in many cases - especially in Workington itself where they were reduced to just a handful of councillors (perhaps tellingly, they held up much better in more middle class Cockermouth) and then come the "Brexit election" last year an early constituency poll showed the Tories poised to grab this seat for the first time ever at a GE. The poll was not universally believed, but come the early hours of December 13 - when Mark Jenkinson (yes, the UKIP candidate four years earlier) had been duly returned by over 4k - a winning margin of 10% and a swing (the largest in Cumbria) almost as big - it became clear it had actually been almost unerringly accurate.
As a SC member Hayman (now in the HoL) was one of Labour's higher profile casualties last year. But despite the strength of their showing then, this is still the most marginal of the Tories five seats in the county (and the only one where they, narrowly, failed to clear 50%) and Labour might hope to win it back in circumstances when Brexit is less prominent. But this is a seat where demographics appear to be working against them in more than one way - both increasing affluence in some old Labour mining strongholds and a clear weakening of Labour loyalties amongst elements of their traditional support - and even if Jenkinson loses it next time, the days of five figure Labour majorities may not be about to resume any time soon. A very interesting seat to watch in the next decade or two, that's for sure.
Prior to 1918 the town of Workington was contained in the old Cockermouth seat, Labour stood in the last few elections before its demise but made relatively little impression on what was still a close Tory/Liberal battle. Then the seat was split into a redrawn Cockermouth/Penrith division and the new (until 1950 fairly compact) Workington seat, and given previous form it may have surprised some to see Labour win with over half the vote. And things stayed that way - Labour won by 55-45 over the Tories even in their epochal disaster year of 1931, were actually unopposed in 1935 and then won by nearly 3 to 1 a decade later. A major redrawing then saw the seat significantly expanded and taking in Cockermouth and a swathe of countryside - this made the Tories more competitive but did not seriously threaten Labour's grip on the seat - results remaining roughly in the 60-40 range with remarkably low swings overall, until the Liberals showed up in the second 1974 GE for the first time since the original contest for this seat in 1918.
They made little impression then and Labour still won by approaching 10k, so moving the veteran MP Fred Peart (first elected in 1945) to the Lords two years later appeared reasonable despite the government's precarious parliamentary position. However, in the byelection Tory hopeful Richard Page (who had stood in both 1974 elections, even achieving a small pro-Tory swing in the first against the national trend) pulled off a famous victory by just over a thousand votes and a 13% swing. The beaten Labour candidate then, Dale Campbell-Savours (a man of Keswick, in this seat until 2010) duly got his revenge in 1979 and indeed won fairly comfortably whilst Page soon resumed his political career, for rather longer, in Hertfordshire - Campbell-Savours afterwards consolidating his position until he had a majority of close to 20k and 40% in his final election of 1997.
However in 2001 there was an above average swing to the Tories, partly due to the foot and mouth epidemic that devastated much of Cumbria, and new MP (and former MEP) Tony Cunningham saw the Labour majority almost halved. Unlike in other Cumbrian seats, though, there were further swings to the Tories in both subsequent polls, and by 2010 (Cunningham's last outing) Workington had become semi-marginal. There were also indications of some trouble for Labour at local level in that time - both UKIP and even the semi-moribund BNP polled strongly in some local wards and prior to the 2013 county elections some veteran Labour councillors in Workington town were deselected in acrimonious circumstances, only to be easily re-elected as Independents.
So in 2015 the new Labour hopeful Sue Hayman knew she had a fight on her hands, she actually managed a tiny swing and increase in the Labour majority but could hardly have failed to notice the strong third place - with nearly 20% of the vote - for UKIP's candidate, one Mark Jenkinson. The following year this constituency voted for Brexit by about 60-40, and the subsequent UKIP collapse made Tories confident of exploiting that come the 2017 GE. In the event Hayman was returned with over 51% - Labour's best share since 2001 - but there was still a small pro-Tory swing as the 16 point drop in UKIP's share split more in their favour, as expected. Any thoughts Labour might have seen off the threat, though, were surely dashed by results in the 2019 district council elections that were little short of disastrous in many cases - especially in Workington itself where they were reduced to just a handful of councillors (perhaps tellingly, they held up much better in more middle class Cockermouth) and then come the "Brexit election" last year an early constituency poll showed the Tories poised to grab this seat for the first time ever at a GE. The poll was not universally believed, but come the early hours of December 13 - when Mark Jenkinson (yes, the UKIP candidate four years earlier) had been duly returned by over 4k - a winning margin of 10% and a swing (the largest in Cumbria) almost as big - it became clear it had actually been almost unerringly accurate.
As a SC member Hayman (now in the HoL) was one of Labour's higher profile casualties last year. But despite the strength of their showing then, this is still the most marginal of the Tories five seats in the county (and the only one where they, narrowly, failed to clear 50%) and Labour might hope to win it back in circumstances when Brexit is less prominent. But this is a seat where demographics appear to be working against them in more than one way - both increasing affluence in some old Labour mining strongholds and a clear weakening of Labour loyalties amongst elements of their traditional support - and even if Jenkinson loses it next time, the days of five figure Labour majorities may not be about to resume any time soon. A very interesting seat to watch in the next decade or two, that's for sure.
