Post by John Chanin on Sept 11, 2020 10:19:56 GMT
This area of east Shropshire was one of the cradles of the industrial revolution. The combination of ironstone, coal, and clay for brick-making, alongside river transport on first the Severn, and later a number of canals, made it ideal for some of the first industry. Most famously Abraham Darby established his ironworks at Coalbrookdale, and built the Ironbridge across the Severn Gorge. This area sits at the south of the Telford constituency, and is a world heritage site with a number of museums. It is the only part of the seat that most outsiders will be familiar with.
After the second world war the area was designated as a new town, originally called Dawley after the largest of the industrial villages. The area was expanded in the late 1960s and renamed after Thomas Telford, the engineer and canal builder who is closely associated with Shropshire. The new town was based on the 4 small industrial towns of Wellington (to the NW), Oakengates (to the N), Dawley (to the S), and Madeley (down by the Severn). The heart of the new town development took place in the open space between these towns, including a rather grim concrete town centre right in the middle, although there is also a pleasant and extensive town park to the south of the centre, which was not developed for housing.
The area under the development corporation extended quite widely beyond the original built-up area, and became an ordinary District Council in 1975, and a unitary under the name of Telford & the Wrekin in 1998. The parliamentary constituency which covered the same area was a key marginal from 1950 onwards - Labour until 1955, won back in 1964, lost in 1970, won in 1974, lost in 1979, won in 1987. The boundary commission then spoiled the fun by splitting the oversized seat into two. The heart of the new town became Telford constituency, and was assumed to be a safe Labour seat, while the outlying areas, including the rural part of the borough, were linked with parts of Shropshire to form what was assumed to be a safe Conservative seat, and which retained the name of the Wrekin. However things haven’t quite turned out that way.
The present Telford seat extends from Trench in the north through Oakengates to the M54 which bisects the seat (and the town). Wellington is in the Wrekin constituency, as are the new town districts of Leegomery and Donnington on the northern edge. South of the M54 is the town centre, with extensive new town development south of here, east of Dawley, and between Dawley and Madeley. Coalbrookdale and Ironbridge sit to the south of Madeley. Like all new towns a great deal of council housing was built, and most of the wards still have over 20% social housing (it is run by a housing association these days). Figures are particularly high in Malinslee, The Nedge, Woodside, and Brookside, which are the main new town neighbourhoods, although there is also some infill and older council housing around the original towns, which all have badly rundown high streets. The new town areas are also those with the highest proportion of routine workers, who exceed managerial workers in 10 of the 13 wards. This closely matches educational qualifications as well - as the data below shows this is a decidedly working-class seat. And in local politics this is reflected in the traditional way. At the 2019 local elections Labour won 11 of the 13 wards, with only middle-class Priorslee on the NE edge of town safely Conservative, and middle-class Horsehay & Lightmoor on the SW edge of the town split. The other middle-class ward (Ironbridge Gorge) is rather different in character, with the highest level of degree holders, although it too is one of only 2 other wards which have been won by the Conservatives in recent years. The seat is mostly white, although not as much so as some other working class constituencies. There is a small asian population in the north of the seat, although the main concentration of asian households is in Wellington.
So a safe Labour seat, with 27 of the 30 councillors elected in 2019? Far from it - at parliamentary level it was a close marginal in 2010, 2015, and 2017, and was one of just 8 seats the Conservatives took from Labour in 2015. And in 2019 a huge 12% swing (the 20th highest in the country) gave the Conservatives a majority of over 10,000. In this Telford was similar to other working-class industrial towns in the midlands like Nuneaton and Cannock, enhanced by the long-term trend away from Labour in new towns, partly due to right-to-buy, and partly by the economic concentration on poor performing areas of the economy. New towns as envisaged in the 1960s have aged poorly, and their inhabitants have noticed. Still, the divergence with local election results, also seen in Nuneaton and Cannock requires some explanation. Turnout is the likely issue. Many people who do not bother to vote at local elections, and are disillusioned with politics, seem to have come out in force to “get Brexit done”. It remains to be seen how this divergence will be resolved - whether the general election heralds a switch in loyalties which will transfer to local elections, or whether once Britain’s relationship with the EU is resolved, the surge in Conservative support will fade away. It is most likely that this seat will return to marginal status in future, given its social composition. MP is Lucy Allan, former accountant and investment manager, who won the seat in 2015.
Telford is a few hundred voters too small, but all that is required to bring it up to size is realignment to new ward boundaries in the Oakengates area.
Census data: owner-occupied 61% (416/573 in England & Wales), private rented 16% (213th), social rented 22% (130th).
:White 93%, Black 1%, South Asian 2%, Mixed 2%, Other 1%
: Managerial & professional 28% (483rd), Routine & Semi-routine 39% (70th)
: Degree level 18%(496th), Minimal qualifications 43%(111th)
: Students 3.0% (329th), Over 65: 13% (471st)
After the second world war the area was designated as a new town, originally called Dawley after the largest of the industrial villages. The area was expanded in the late 1960s and renamed after Thomas Telford, the engineer and canal builder who is closely associated with Shropshire. The new town was based on the 4 small industrial towns of Wellington (to the NW), Oakengates (to the N), Dawley (to the S), and Madeley (down by the Severn). The heart of the new town development took place in the open space between these towns, including a rather grim concrete town centre right in the middle, although there is also a pleasant and extensive town park to the south of the centre, which was not developed for housing.
The area under the development corporation extended quite widely beyond the original built-up area, and became an ordinary District Council in 1975, and a unitary under the name of Telford & the Wrekin in 1998. The parliamentary constituency which covered the same area was a key marginal from 1950 onwards - Labour until 1955, won back in 1964, lost in 1970, won in 1974, lost in 1979, won in 1987. The boundary commission then spoiled the fun by splitting the oversized seat into two. The heart of the new town became Telford constituency, and was assumed to be a safe Labour seat, while the outlying areas, including the rural part of the borough, were linked with parts of Shropshire to form what was assumed to be a safe Conservative seat, and which retained the name of the Wrekin. However things haven’t quite turned out that way.
The present Telford seat extends from Trench in the north through Oakengates to the M54 which bisects the seat (and the town). Wellington is in the Wrekin constituency, as are the new town districts of Leegomery and Donnington on the northern edge. South of the M54 is the town centre, with extensive new town development south of here, east of Dawley, and between Dawley and Madeley. Coalbrookdale and Ironbridge sit to the south of Madeley. Like all new towns a great deal of council housing was built, and most of the wards still have over 20% social housing (it is run by a housing association these days). Figures are particularly high in Malinslee, The Nedge, Woodside, and Brookside, which are the main new town neighbourhoods, although there is also some infill and older council housing around the original towns, which all have badly rundown high streets. The new town areas are also those with the highest proportion of routine workers, who exceed managerial workers in 10 of the 13 wards. This closely matches educational qualifications as well - as the data below shows this is a decidedly working-class seat. And in local politics this is reflected in the traditional way. At the 2019 local elections Labour won 11 of the 13 wards, with only middle-class Priorslee on the NE edge of town safely Conservative, and middle-class Horsehay & Lightmoor on the SW edge of the town split. The other middle-class ward (Ironbridge Gorge) is rather different in character, with the highest level of degree holders, although it too is one of only 2 other wards which have been won by the Conservatives in recent years. The seat is mostly white, although not as much so as some other working class constituencies. There is a small asian population in the north of the seat, although the main concentration of asian households is in Wellington.
So a safe Labour seat, with 27 of the 30 councillors elected in 2019? Far from it - at parliamentary level it was a close marginal in 2010, 2015, and 2017, and was one of just 8 seats the Conservatives took from Labour in 2015. And in 2019 a huge 12% swing (the 20th highest in the country) gave the Conservatives a majority of over 10,000. In this Telford was similar to other working-class industrial towns in the midlands like Nuneaton and Cannock, enhanced by the long-term trend away from Labour in new towns, partly due to right-to-buy, and partly by the economic concentration on poor performing areas of the economy. New towns as envisaged in the 1960s have aged poorly, and their inhabitants have noticed. Still, the divergence with local election results, also seen in Nuneaton and Cannock requires some explanation. Turnout is the likely issue. Many people who do not bother to vote at local elections, and are disillusioned with politics, seem to have come out in force to “get Brexit done”. It remains to be seen how this divergence will be resolved - whether the general election heralds a switch in loyalties which will transfer to local elections, or whether once Britain’s relationship with the EU is resolved, the surge in Conservative support will fade away. It is most likely that this seat will return to marginal status in future, given its social composition. MP is Lucy Allan, former accountant and investment manager, who won the seat in 2015.
Telford is a few hundred voters too small, but all that is required to bring it up to size is realignment to new ward boundaries in the Oakengates area.
Census data: owner-occupied 61% (416/573 in England & Wales), private rented 16% (213th), social rented 22% (130th).
:White 93%, Black 1%, South Asian 2%, Mixed 2%, Other 1%
: Managerial & professional 28% (483rd), Routine & Semi-routine 39% (70th)
: Degree level 18%(496th), Minimal qualifications 43%(111th)
: Students 3.0% (329th), Over 65: 13% (471st)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Conservative | 14,996 | 36.3% | 16,094 | 39.6% | 21,777 | 48.7% | 25,546 | 59.7% |
Labour | 15,977 | 38.7% | 15,364 | 37.8% | 21,057 | 47.1% | 14,605 | 34.1% |
Liberal Democrat | 6,399 | 15.5% | 927 | 2.3% | 954 | 2.1% | 2,674 | 6.2% |
UKIP | 2,428 | 5.9% | 7,330 | 18.0% | ||||
Green | 930 | 2.3% | 898 | 2.0% | ||||
Others | 1,513 | 3.7% | ||||||
Majority | -981 | -2.4% | 730 | 1.8% | 720 | 1.6% | 10,941 | 25.5% |
