French By-elections

[Foggy]

Dec 11, 2020 16:59:59 GMT john07 said:

Sept 2, 2020 17:05:51 GMT neilm said:

When did this change? I remember MPs being mayors as well. Was this when local government was restructured?

There was a time when many French politicians would remain as mayor of their political base even when they were in the cabinet or even Prime Minister.

For example Gaston Defferre was mayor of Marseilles from 1953 until his death in 1986. He held cabinet posts as Minister of Overseas Finance from 1956-7 and Minister of the Interior from 1981-4. He stood for President in 1969 but stayed with his power base in Marseilles.

Similarly François Mitterrand retained his position of Mayor of Château-Chinon from 1957 till he stood down when elected President in 1981.

Those aren't even the most recent examples. Alain Juppé remained mayor of Bordeaux whilst serving as Prime Minister from 1995-97. Even Édouard Philippe, to get around modern double-jobbing rules on a technicality, simply stood down as maire en fonctions in Le Havre when Macron made him PM in 2017, and then picked up where he left off after being dismissed from the Matignon earlier this year. 

[Devil Wincarnate]

And Juppé wasn't even the first sitting mayor of Bordeaux to be PM (that was Chaban-Delmas). Mauroy was mayor of Lille whilst PM. As for Chirac...

Another recent example is Ayrault, who had a month as PM whilst mayor of Nantes.

[john07]

The examples above explain why I find French politics so captivating.

I studied French politics in my BA(Econ) at the University of Manchester and later in my MA(Econ) where I graduated in 1981. I travel to France frequently and love the country. We went for a week to Paris and Brittany earlier this year before the lockdown. I hope to travel there next year. We have friends in Orthez in the Basque Country and would like to visit them soon.

[relique]

There is no problem being a government position and a local councillor, mayor or region or département president. The legal incompatibility is between government minister and member of parliament. And now between member of parliament and mayor or president of region or département.

Nowadays, being minister and elected in a local office is frowned upon so some governments create this supplementary rules.

[andrea]

Dec 12, 2020 15:01:29 GMT relique said:

. The legal incompatibility is between government minister and member of parliament.

I've always found this a bit baffling. If you are reshuffled out of the government, you are out of national institutions as you have already resigned as MP.

[relique]

Dec 13, 2020 21:56:14 GMT andrea said:

Dec 12, 2020 15:01:29 GMT relique said:

. The legal incompatibility is between government minister and member of parliament.

I've always found this a bit baffling. If you are reshuffled out of the government, you are out of national institutions as you have already resigned as MP.

No. Now, you now automatically regain your seat in the national assembly or the senate. It's true that you used to need a by-election to come back.

[john07]

Dec 13, 2020 22:17:31 GMT relique said:

Dec 13, 2020 21:56:14 GMT andrea said:

I've always found this a bit baffling. If you are reshuffled out of the government, you are out of national institutions as you have already resigned as MP.

No. Now, you now automatically regain your seat in the national assembly or the senate. It's true that you used to need a by-election to come back.

Do Ministers still have a substitute to act as Deputy during their period in Government?

I seem to recall once when a substitute Deputy died, this meant that the Minister had to fight a by-election to install a new deputy?

[relique]

Yes. All candidates have a substitute. They run together. Sometimes (but not always) the substitute becomes a parliamentary assistant. It depends on the profile of the substitute (it can be a local official who doesn't have time for that, or a local party-official who will).

The substitutes can also refuse to seat. That's the case of Ludovic Loquet in Pas de Calais 6th. In Yvelines, the minister herself resigned from MP to prevent her substitute (who is allegedly involved in drug trafficking) to take the seat. In Yvelines, the new minister didn't stand in the by-election, so if she leaves the government, she won't return to the assembly (a LR MP was elected). In Pas-de-Calais, the new minister is standing so that her new substitute will take the seat at the assembly during her stay in government.

I think the argument in favour of this system comes from the separation of power. The government is viewed as the executive power, while the parliament is the legislative power. So no one can be part of the two.

I don't think a sitting judge can become (and stay a judge) a minister or an MP.

[relique]

Nov 30, 2020 9:37:21 GMT relique said:

There is a "clear uncertainty" on the dates of the next by-elections.

One should have been held in december (13th and 20th) in Pas de Calais 6th (with the former PS now minister Brigitte Bourguignon facing a tough reelection campaign). This district is quite large, from the coast north of Boulogne-sur-Mer (Wissant), just across the chanel from Lydd I guess, until south of Saint-Omer, in what we call the "audomarois". It is a very rural socialist district, with some commuters from Calais or Boulogne.

It will however most probably be postponed. But there is already a list of candidates:

Brigitte Bourguignon (incumbent, LREM) with Christophe Leclercq (local councillor in Seninghem)
Jérôme Jossien (Générations, Benoît Hamon's movement, local councillor in Pernes) with Patricia Duvieubourg (PCF)
Laure Bourel (LO) with Jean-Paul Wallard (LO)
Marie-Christine Bourgeois (RN, regional councillor) with Cédric Fasquelle (RN)
Bastien Marguerite-Garin (PS, local councillor in Boulogne-sur-Mer, which is not in the district) with Valérie Cormont (Mouvement des Citoyens)
Faustine Maliar (LR, regional councillor, from Calais, not in the district) with Jean-Luc Marcotte (local -opposition- councillor in Desvres, one of the major cities here)
Jérémy Revillon (probably left but no known affiliation) with Hélène Margez-Deneuveglise

Bourguignon was favorite to retain her constituency (against RN, probably), but it is very difficult to know what kind of message the voters might want to send the government. I think the socialists might have put quite a good fight with another candidate (someone already elected in the district). LR as well.

There will be another by-election soon. George Pau-Langevin (PS, former minister) was appointed in an administrative position that is not compatible with being an MP. It will trigger a by-election with a highly targetet Paris 15th district, part of the 20ème arrondissement. She was elected with no LREM candidate against her. The Greens will try to target this constituency. The 20ème was easily won by the PS at the local election of march-june.

In the district, the local election's results were:

1st round:

PS: 37,81%

LR: 14,82%

LREM: 12,91% (it was the incumbent -former PS- mayor of the arrondissement)

EELV: 10,92%

LFI: 9,70%

Right-wing independent: 7,16%

RN: 2,13%

others: 4,5%

2nd round:

PS-EELV: 56,44%

LR: 22,54%

LFI: 11,46%

LREM: 9,56%

Well, I've officially lost count of the number of postponements of these by-elections.

Parliamentary elections are suspended one year before the official election (that will take place in june 2022). So the government has proposed the last date possible: may 30th and june 6th for FOUR by-elections.

There will be the two elections in Pas-de-Calais 6th and Paris 15th which were supposed to be held ages ago (and candidates have been "campaigning" since autumn). There will also be a by-election in Oise 1st (Beauvais north), because the heir of the Dassault group, Olivier Dassault (LR), died in a helicopter crash in march. His substitute being senator for the Oise département, he chose to stay in the "Palais du Luxembourg" rather than going into the "Palais Bourbon". One of his nephew was selected by LR to be candidate to his uncle's seat, Victor Habert-Dassault. Olivier's father, Serge, was a senator for Essonne département (and at once mayor of Corbeil-Essonnes, which was won by PCF in 2020), while the founder of the Dassault group, Marcel Dassault was an MP for this constituency during the 5th Republic until his death in 1986. Olivier took over in 1988 in a by-election after the election of another politician was voided by the courts. He was only beaten in 1997 by a socialist, and took back his constituency in 2002. So, all in all, this constituency has more or less been in the family for about 60 years (with slightly different boundaries).

As an anecdote: the real family name was Bloch . Dassault was a "nom-de-guerre" of Marcel's brother in the french resistance, french army  Général Darius Paul Bloch (who rallied de Gaulle early in 1940), "chardasso", for "char d'assaut" (tank).  Marcel took his brother's name for himself. During the war, he was subject to many antisemitic campaigns by some far-right "news"papers and several times arrested. In 1944, he was transfered in Buchenwald and he himself said he only survived thanks to a french communist party official taking him under his wing. After the war, he gave money every year to the communist party newspaper l'Humanité (founded by Jean Jaurès).

In 2017, Olivier Dassault obtained 39 then 67% of the votes in the first and secound round while his LREM opponent got 24 and 33%. FN was third on the first round with 18%. Then, the left-wing candidates got 5,5% for the Insoumis, 5% for PCF (communist), 3,6% for PRG (supported by PS and Greens). For now, we know two candidates: a LREM and a FN. If no other right-wing candidate is announced, I don't see how this constituency will leave the Dassault family.

The fourth by-election will be held in Indre-et-Loire 3rd (Saint-Pierre des Corps, known TGV station, Chambray-les-Tours, Loches), where Sophie Auconie (UDI) resigned for health reasons (she had an operation because of a breast cancer in november). When the MP resigns, there is no substitution. Her substitute, local mayor and councillor at the départemental council, said he wouldn't seek the seat. He supports Sophie Métadier (UDI), mayor of Beaulieu-lès-Loches, who is also supported by LR and by Auconie herself.

This constituency is interesting because since the re-drawing of boundaries in 1988, only in 2007 did it elect a candidate in the national opposition. It was Marisol Touraine, PS MP in 1997, 2007 and 2012, minister for Health during the Hollande term. She was protected by LREM in 2017 who didn't field an official candidate. She was however beaten. Touraine, fielded by PS but with a "presidential majority" label got 28,5% on the first round but only 43% on the second (45 and 60% in 2012). Auconie got 20% on the first round and 57% in the second. An Insoumis candidate was third with 14% on the first round, a dissident LR 11% (he gave up contending for the by-election this time), FN 8%, Greens 7%, DLF (right wing) 4%, PCF 3%. Clearly, her "presidential majority" label (and important governement minister during Hollande's presidency) prevented lots of left-wing votes to go to Marisol Touraine on the second round (she gained 3,200 votes while there were 12,500 votes to other left-wing candidates on the first round; in 2012, she gained 7,300 votes for less than 5,000 votes on other left wing candidates on the first round, going from 150% transfers to 25% ).

The constituency included both cities from the Tours suburbs, mainly Saint-Pierre-des-Corps (15,000 inhabitants) a long-time communist "railway city" (cité cheminote, where lots of railway workers lived). It was held by PCF since the founding of the PCF in 1920. It was lost in 2020 after the retirement of Marie-France Beaufils, mayor and former senator (2001-2017). Also in the Tours suburbs, Chambray-lès-Tours (12,000 inhabitants), held by the left since 2001 (and before that between 1977 and 1983) and Saint-Avertin (15,000 inhabitants), quite wealthy city, very right-wing. But the constituency is also quite rural, around the city of Loches (6,000 inhabitants but 50,000 in the "inter-city" council of 67 communes). It used to be quite balanced (with a strong radical-socialist -center left-  background) but this rural component is more and more right-wing.

The local elections were hard for the left here. In 2015, all the "cantons" at the département-level were held by the right (even in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, in a new canton with the right-wing Saint-Avertin), except for Chambray-lez-Tours, included in a PS canton with lots of cities included in another constituency). In 2020, the loss of Saint-Pierre-des-Corps was quite significant.

[relique]

The four by-elections' first round is today !

On twitter, someone from a parisian polling station is saying they had 2,88% participation at 12 (so four out of twelve hours). That's ridiculously low.

I think only the parisian by-election will end voting at 8pm. The others will end at 6pm and we should have information a couple of hours after.

[Deleted]

May 30, 2021 11:10:16 GMT relique said:

The four by-elections' first round is today !

On twitter, someone from a parisian polling station is saying they had 2,88% participation at 12 (so four out of twelve hours). That's ridiculously low.

I think only the parisian by-election will end voting at 8pm. The others will end at 6pm and we should have information a couple of hours after.

Lots of postal votes (I assume they do have postal voting)?

[relique]

May 30, 2021 12:25:26 GMT @europeanlefty said:

May 30, 2021 11:10:16 GMT relique said:

The four by-elections' first round is today !

On twitter, someone from a parisian polling station is saying they had 2,88% participation at 12 (so four out of twelve hours). That's ridiculously low.

I think only the parisian by-election will end voting at 8pm. The others will end at 6pm and we should have information a couple of hours after.

Lots of postal votes (I assume they do have postal voting)?

Is it a joke ?

No postal voting allowed in FrancE. You need to go to your polling station OR to sign a document saying one person, who votes in the same city as you (it's not mandatory it's the same polling station) can vote for you.

So 2,88% was the real number of votes at 12 in this polling station (a polling station is between 800 and 1200 registered voters, so that was probably something like 25-35 votes).

[timmullen1]

Very democratic; I would have to get a stranger to vote for me given that I’ve been housebound since 1996, my mother is 88 and can’t walk without a Zimmer frame, and I have no family living in the City. Sounds like the arrogance in your first line includes assuming disabled people don’t vote.

[relique]

May 30, 2021 13:46:19 GMT timmullen1 said:

Very democratic; I would have to get a stranger to vote for me given that I’ve been housebound since 1996, my mother is 88 and can’t walk without a Zimmer frame, and I have no family living in the City. Sounds like the arrogance in your first line includes assuming disabled people don’t vote.

No. I just thought the poster above was mocking the french rules because of what you are saying. I genuinely thought it might be a joke and I didn't want to explain something to someone who already knew.

Disabled french citizens do vote, though. If you want to vote for a candidate, you usually call them and ask to give you the number of someone able to vote for you. It guarantees you they will vote for who you want to vote for.

I have voted several times for different kinds of people (family members, mostly, but also I've been a volunteer in some campaigns to be called for if they wanted someone to vote for a citizen unable to go to its polling station).

There are also polling stations located in retirement homes, and people in hospitals or disabled can have the police coming to them to make them sign the document (if you just are going to a holiday, you need to go to the police station).

[Deleted]

May 30, 2021 13:52:23 GMT relique said:

May 30, 2021 13:46:19 GMT timmullen1 said:

Very democratic; I would have to get a stranger to vote for me given that I’ve been housebound since 1996, my mother is 88 and can’t walk without a Zimmer frame, and I have no family living in the City. Sounds like the arrogance in your first line includes assuming disabled people don’t vote.

No. I just thought the poster above was mocking the french rules because of what you are saying. I genuinely thought it might be a joke and I didn't want to explain something to someone who already knew.

Disabled french citizens do vote, though. If you want to vote for a candidate, you usually call them and ask to give you the number of someone able to vote for you. It guarantees you they will vote for who you want to vote for.

I have voted several times for different kinds of people (family members, mostly, but also I've been a volunteer in some campaigns to be called for if they wanted someone to vote for a citizen unable to go to its polling station).

There are also polling stations located in retirement homes, and people in hospitals or disabled can have the police coming to them to make them sign the document (if you just are going to a holiday, you need to go to the police station).

I wasn't mocking, I wondered if, like our recent elections, a low election day turnout was caused by people switching to postal votes because of the pandemic then halfway through typing I suddenly realised that I didn't know if France actually allowed postal voting. I must say though that I'm slightly surprised to hear that it doesn't

[hullenedge]

May 30, 2021 13:54:33 GMT @europeanlefty said:

May 30, 2021 13:52:23 GMT relique said:

No. I just thought the poster above was mocking the french rules because of what you are saying. I genuinely thought it might be a joke and I didn't want to explain something to someone who already knew.

Disabled french citizens do vote, though. If you want to vote for a candidate, you usually call them and ask to give you the number of someone able to vote for you. It guarantees you they will vote for who you want to vote for.

I have voted several times for different kinds of people (family members, mostly, but also I've been a volunteer in some campaigns to be called for if they wanted someone to vote for a citizen unable to go to its polling station).

There are also polling stations located in retirement homes, and people in hospitals or disabled can have the police coming to them to make them sign the document (if you just are going to a holiday, you need to go to the police station).

I wasn't mocking, I wondered if, like our recent elections, a low election day turnout was caused by people switching to postal votes because of the pandemic then halfway through typing I suddenly realised that I didn't know if France actually allowed postal voting. I must say though that I'm slightly surprised to hear that it doesn't

It may still be lawful in The Netherlands for one family member to cast votes for other family members providing they can produce their ID cards etc. Assume no postals there.

[relique]

Apr 24, 2021 10:20:01 GMT relique said:

Nov 30, 2020 9:37:21 GMT relique said:

There is a "clear uncertainty" on the dates of the next by-elections.

One should have been held in december (13th and 20th) in Pas de Calais 6th (with the former PS now minister Brigitte Bourguignon facing a tough reelection campaign). This district is quite large, from the coast north of Boulogne-sur-Mer (Wissant), just across the chanel from Lydd I guess, until south of Saint-Omer, in what we call the "audomarois". It is a very rural socialist district, with some commuters from Calais or Boulogne.

It will however most probably be postponed. But there is already a list of candidates:

Brigitte Bourguignon (incumbent, LREM) with Christophe Leclercq (local councillor in Seninghem)
Jérôme Jossien (Générations, Benoît Hamon's movement, local councillor in Pernes) with Patricia Duvieubourg (PCF)
Laure Bourel (LO) with Jean-Paul Wallard (LO)
Marie-Christine Bourgeois (RN, regional councillor) with Cédric Fasquelle (RN)
Bastien Marguerite-Garin (PS, local councillor in Boulogne-sur-Mer, which is not in the district) with Valérie Cormont (Mouvement des Citoyens)
Faustine Maliar (LR, regional councillor, from Calais, not in the district) with Jean-Luc Marcotte (local -opposition- councillor in Desvres, one of the major cities here)
Jérémy Revillon (probably left but no known affiliation) with Hélène Margez-Deneuveglise

Bourguignon was favorite to retain her constituency (against RN, probably), but it is very difficult to know what kind of message the voters might want to send the government. I think the socialists might have put quite a good fight with another candidate (someone already elected in the district). LR as well.

There will be another by-election soon. George Pau-Langevin (PS, former minister) was appointed in an administrative position that is not compatible with being an MP. It will trigger a by-election with a highly targetet Paris 15th district, part of the 20ème arrondissement. She was elected with no LREM candidate against her. The Greens will try to target this constituency. The 20ème was easily won by the PS at the local election of march-june.

In the district, the local election's results were:

1st round:

PS: 37,81%

LR: 14,82%

LREM: 12,91% (it was the incumbent -former PS- mayor of the arrondissement)

EELV: 10,92%

LFI: 9,70%

Right-wing independent: 7,16%

RN: 2,13%

others: 4,5%

2nd round:

PS-EELV: 56,44%

LR: 22,54%

LFI: 11,46%

LREM: 9,56%

Well, I've officially lost count of the number of postponements of these by-elections.

Parliamentary elections are suspended one year before the official election (that will take place in june 2022). So the government has proposed the last date possible: may 30th and june 6th for FOUR by-elections.

There will be the two elections in Pas-de-Calais 6th and Paris 15th which were supposed to be held ages ago (and candidates have been "campaigning" since autumn). There will also be a by-election in Oise 1st (Beauvais north), because the heir of the Dassault group, Olivier Dassault (LR), died in a helicopter crash in march. His substitute being senator for the Oise département, he chose to stay in the "Palais du Luxembourg" rather than going into the "Palais Bourbon". One of his nephew was selected by LR to be candidate to his uncle's seat, Victor Habert-Dassault. Olivier's father, Serge, was a senator for Essonne département (and at once mayor of Corbeil-Essonnes, which was won by PCF in 2020), while the founder of the Dassault group, Marcel Dassault was an MP for this constituency during the 5th Republic until his death in 1986. Olivier took over in 1988 in a by-election after the election of another politician was voided by the courts. He was only beaten in 1997 by a socialist, and took back his constituency in 2002. So, all in all, this constituency has more or less been in the family for about 60 years (with slightly different boundaries).

As an anecdote: the real family name was Bloch . Dassault was a "nom-de-guerre" of Marcel's brother in the french resistance, french army  Général Darius Paul Bloch (who rallied de Gaulle early in 1940), "chardasso", for "char d'assaut" (tank).  Marcel took his brother's name for himself. During the war, he was subject to many antisemitic campaigns by some far-right "news"papers and several times arrested. In 1944, he was transfered in Buchenwald and he himself said he only survived thanks to a french communist party official taking him under his wing. After the war, he gave money every year to the communist party newspaper l'Humanité (founded by Jean Jaurès).

In 2017, Olivier Dassault obtained 39 then 67% of the votes in the first and secound round while his LREM opponent got 24 and 33%. FN was third on the first round with 18%. Then, the left-wing candidates got 5,5% for the Insoumis, 5% for PCF (communist), 3,6% for PRG (supported by PS and Greens). For now, we know two candidates: a LREM and a FN. If no other right-wing candidate is announced, I don't see how this constituency will leave the Dassault family.

The fourth by-election will be held in Indre-et-Loire 3rd (Saint-Pierre des Corps, known TGV station, Chambray-les-Tours, Loches), where Sophie Auconie (UDI) resigned for health reasons (she had an operation because of a breast cancer in november). When the MP resigns, there is no substitution. Her substitute, local mayor and councillor at the départemental council, said he wouldn't seek the seat. He supports Sophie Métadier (UDI), mayor of Beaulieu-lès-Loches, who is also supported by LR and by Auconie herself.

This constituency is interesting because since the re-drawing of boundaries in 1988, only in 2007 did it elect a candidate in the national opposition. It was Marisol Touraine, PS MP in 1997, 2007 and 2012, minister for Health during the Hollande term. She was protected by LREM in 2017 who didn't field an official candidate. She was however beaten. Touraine, fielded by PS but with a "presidential majority" label got 28,5% on the first round but only 43% on the second (45 and 60% in 2012). Auconie got 20% on the first round and 57% in the second. An Insoumis candidate was third with 14% on the first round, a dissident LR 11% (he gave up contending for the by-election this time), FN 8%, Greens 7%, DLF (right wing) 4%, PCF 3%. Clearly, her "presidential majority" label (and important governement minister during Hollande's presidency) prevented lots of left-wing votes to go to Marisol Touraine on the second round (she gained 3,200 votes while there were 12,500 votes to other left-wing candidates on the first round; in 2012, she gained 7,300 votes for less than 5,000 votes on other left wing candidates on the first round, going from 150% transfers to 25% ).

The constituency included both cities from the Tours suburbs, mainly Saint-Pierre-des-Corps (15,000 inhabitants) a long-time communist "railway city" (cité cheminote, where lots of railway workers lived). It was held by PCF since the founding of the PCF in 1920. It was lost in 2020 after the retirement of Marie-France Beaufils, mayor and former senator (2001-2017). Also in the Tours suburbs, Chambray-lès-Tours (12,000 inhabitants), held by the left since 2001 (and before that between 1977 and 1983) and Saint-Avertin (15,000 inhabitants), quite wealthy city, very right-wing. But the constituency is also quite rural, around the city of Loches (6,000 inhabitants but 50,000 in the "inter-city" council of 67 communes). It used to be quite balanced (with a strong radical-socialist -center left-  background) but this rural component is more and more right-wing.

The local elections were hard for the left here. In 2015, all the "cantons" at the département-level were held by the right (even in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, in a new canton with the right-wing Saint-Avertin), except for Chambray-lez-Tours, included in a PS canton with lots of cities included in another constituency). In 2020, the loss of Saint-Pierre-des-Corps was quite significant.

(partial and still not definitive) results of the first round. Participation is abysmal so there will be a second round every where with only two candidates:

Pas de Calais 6th:  LREM incumbent

Bourguignon (LREM minister) against Bourgeois (RN)

Oise 1st: LR incumbent

Haber-Dassault (LR) against  RN

Indre-et-Loire 4rd: UDI incumbent

Métadier (UDI) against PS apparently

Paris 15th: PS incumbent

PS will face either Insoumis Simonnet or LR. With a few polling stations still unannounced, there is PS 25%, LFI 21%, LR 19%, EELV 18%

Edit: to give you an idea of how the french media are upholding their duty as one of the "powers" of a democratic society to let the people know of the democratic process, there's nothing on the front page of Le Monde's website.

I wonder should there be 4 by-elections in the UK, how scandalous it would be that the BBC don't talk about it on their website ?

[neilm]

May 30, 2021 13:52:23 GMT relique said:

There are also polling stations located in retirement homes

And people say the UK is at risk of vote farming!

[neilm]

May 30, 2021 13:54:33 GMT @europeanlefty said:

I wasn't mocking, I wondered if, like our recent elections, a low election day turnout was caused by people switching to postal votes because of the pandemic then halfway through typing I suddenly realised that I didn't know if France actually allowed postal voting. I must say though that I'm slightly surprised to hear that it doesn't

I wonder if, given the interesting way the French vote, it might be impossible? I don't see that it would be but you'd end up with bits of paper all over the place and how would they keep track of where they end up?

[relique]

May 31, 2021 9:29:02 GMT neilm said:

May 30, 2021 13:52:23 GMT relique said:

There are also polling stations located in retirement homes

And people say the UK is at risk of vote farming!

Well, at some point, some politicians were also accused of having ballots from the cemetary.

The results of the four by-elections (and comparison with 2017):

Pas de Calais 6th: participation: 24,26%

Bourguignon (LREM): 34,95% (-6,99)

Bourgeois (RN): 24,02% (+1,33)

Maliar (LR): 19,20% (+3,25)

Marguerite-Garin (PS): 12,91% (+12,91)

Jossien (G.s, PCF, LFI): 5,80% (-7,35 from LFI+PCF)

Bourel (LO): 3,11% (+2,01)

Paris 15th: participation: 15,54%

El Aaraje (PS, PRG): 25,66% (-0,86 from PS + PRG)

Simonnet (LFI): 20,78% (+2,12)

Didier (LR): 18,52% (-7,13 from LR + MR)

Guhl (EELV, G.s): 18,42% (+7,55)

Roger (PCF): 10,57% (+6,02)

de Sinzogan (Ind): 4,40%

Gardent (POID): 1,11% (+0,26 from other trotskysts)

Ghehioueche (CSF-FLUO - left-wing libertarians, csf being cannabis without borders): 0,54%

Oise 1st: participation: 26,41%

Habert Dassault (LR, UDI): 58,44% (+19,93)

Marais-Beuil (RN): 15,27% (-2,85)

Lundy (G.s, EELV, PS, PCF, PRG): 12,31% (-1,93 from LFI+PCF+PRG-PS-EELV)

Lamaaizi (LREM): 4,57% (-19,56)

Latrasse (dissident EELV): 3,17% (+1,74 from an ecologist)

Renard (DLF) 3,13% (+1,79)

Potchtovik (LO): 1,99% (+1,16)

Joly (PDF, far-right): 1,14% (+0,24)

Even with more than 50% of the votes, you need 25% of registered voters to be elected on the first round. Therefore, there will be a second round.

Indre-et-Loire 3rd: participation: 18,39%

Métadier (UDI-LR): 45,02% (+25,00)

Riolet (PS-PCF): 20,12% (-11,72 from PS+PCF)

Protin: (RN): 18,64% (+11,02)

Geneix (EELV): 16,22% (+9,62)

In 2017 there was LFI at 13,70%, a dissident LR at 10,81% but still no LREM against Marisol Touraine (PS); now, LREM didn't field a candidate rather to protect Métadier. So it would be logical to see the bump for EELV as the absence of LFI, the bump for UDI as the absence of dissident LR and LREM voters going more center-right, and the decrease for PS-PCF as a decrease from macronist votes (Touraine had some flyers with "presidential majority" which the new socialist candidate does not have).  Part of the bump for RN is the absence of DLF (4%).

It's really hard to take in any significant lesson from these, as the participation is so low. There will only be two-way races as a result (if you are not in the first two, you need 12,5% of registered voters to qualify for the second round). 

I'm finding this very undemocratic that political leaders and media do not talk at all about these elections and do not participate in any way to the campaign. They really are not serving democracy in France by ignoring the dozen of by-elections to the parliament during any one term.