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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 1, 2020 23:11:20 GMT
An unusual batch of seven by-elections (législatives partielles) in France due later this month. All caused by deputies either becoming mayors (national/local dual mandates banned) or being nominated to the government. In each case the suppléant - the substitute or replacement elected with the deputy was unwilling or unable to take over.
The circonscriptions (constituencies) are:
LRM: 11th in Les Yvelines, 6th in the Pas-de-Calais.
LR: 1st in the Haut-Rhin, 3rd in Maine-et-Loire.
Socialists: 5th in Seine-Maritime, 9th in the Val-de-Marne.
and the gem -
GDR (Gauche démocrate et républicaine - communists) 2nd circonscription in La Reunion.
If the GDR loses this seat they will fall to 14, one below the number to form an official group in the National Assembly.
Interesting to see if the EELV can follow up their successes in the municipals in any of these seats or if the RN (formerly FN) of the odious Marine Le Pen can make any progress. Or if Macron's lot can come up again.
Whatever - there will be some numbers over two rounds for a few poor number-starved souls here.
I think nominations for the first round should be lodged by now.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 2, 2020 6:34:57 GMT
An unusual batch of seven by-elections ( législatives partielles) in France due later this month. All caused by deputies either becoming mayors (national/local dual mandates banned) or being nominated to the government. In each case the suppléant - the substitute or replacement elected with the deputy was unwilling or unable to take over. The circonscriptions (constituencies) are: LRM: 11th in Les Yvelines, 6th in the Pas-de-Calais. LR: 1st in the Haut-Rhin, 3rd in Maine-et-Loire. Socialists: 5th in Seine-Maritime, 9th in the Val-de-Marne. and the gem - GDR (Gauche démocrate et républicaine - communists) 2nd circonscription in La Reunion. If the GDR loses this seat they will fall to 14, one below the number to form an official group in the National Assembly. Interesting to see if the EELV can follow up their successes in the municipals in any of these seats or if the RN (formerly FN) of the odious Marine Le Pen can make any progress. Or if Macron's lot can come up again. Whatever - there will be some numbers over two rounds for a few poor number-starved souls here. I think nominations for the first round should be lodged by now. When were national and local mandates banned? I realised they were yesterday when I read an article about Francois Bayrou (more on that in the other thread). |
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relique
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Post by relique on Sept 2, 2020 9:59:36 GMT
An unusual batch of seven by-elections ( législatives partielles) in France due later this month. All caused by deputies either becoming mayors (national/local dual mandates banned) or being nominated to the government. In each case the suppléant - the substitute or replacement elected with the deputy was unwilling or unable to take over. The circonscriptions (constituencies) are: LRM: 11th in Les Yvelines, 6th in the Pas-de-Calais. LR: 1st in the Haut-Rhin, 3rd in Maine-et-Loire. Socialists: 5th in Seine-Maritime, 9th in the Val-de-Marne. and the gem - GDR (Gauche démocrate et républicaine - communists) 2nd circonscription in La Reunion. If the GDR loses this seat they will fall to 14, one below the number to form an official group in the National Assembly. Interesting to see if the EELV can follow up their successes in the municipals in any of these seats or if the RN (formerly FN) of the odious Marine Le Pen can make any progress. Or if Macron's lot can come up again. Whatever - there will be some numbers over two rounds for a few poor number-starved souls here. I think nominations for the first round should be lodged by now. When were national and local mandates banned? I realised they were yesterday when I read an article about Francois Bayrou (more on that in the other thread).
The election in Pas-de-Calais is not yet officially called so we don't have dates of election or dates for candidates to file.
In Yvelines 11th (city of Trappes and surroundings) the former MP was Benoît Hamon, former PS, former candidate at the presidential election (6%). He lost his constituency in 2017, not qualifying to the second round. The MP, Nadia Hai, decided not to let her substitute take over because he is "mis en examen" in a drug-trafficking case.
Hamon said he will not contest the election. The city of Trappes was however conquered at the 2020 municipal election by a member of his small party (Générations). It is a deputy-mayor of Trappes (32 000 inhabitants), Sandrine Grandgambe, member of Générations (and former head of the PS party in the Yvelines département) who is candidate. She is supported by PS and Greens (EELV). The PCF and France Insoumise have put forward a ticket with communist Valérie Froberger at the head of the ticket and insoumis Thibaut Langlois as a substitute. A trotskyst LO candidate was also announced.
On the right, there were fear of divisions among the LR family but they managed to unite around Philippe Benassaya mayor of Bois d'Arcy (14 000 inhabitants) and Othman Nasrou (substitute), a close ally to Valérie Pécresse (he is now 1st VP of the Île de France region) who declared first but rallied Benassaya after the local right put some pressure against him. UDI supports this ticket.
LREM could have supported Nadia Hai with a different substitute (if she wins, then her substitute would have taken over for the time she was part of the government; when she leaves the government, she would automatically return in parliament and her substitute would be... nothing). That's not her choice. Pierre Luce (not elected, département head of LREM) was selected.
If Benoît Hamon didn't go himself, it must be that the internal poll he paid for wasn't very good. LR might take back this seat (which is probably the most left-wing seat in the Yvelines département; but in 2015 in the département local elections, the left lost all seats, even the Trappes canton (that's how we call constituencies for departemental elections, which were formerly known as cantonales elections).
In Haut-Rhin 1st (Colmar city and surroundings), the MP became LR mayor of Colmar and so had to quit. What is funny is that his substitute, Brigitte Klinkert, the president of the Haut-Rhin départemental council could have said "I prefer my position of president of the département, so I refuse to become an MP" and it would have triggered a by-election. But what happenned was that she was appointed in the government at the same time, triggering a by-election.
It's a bit of a mess for the selection of candidates. Two candidates wanted the LR selection. Odile Uhlrich-Mallet, 1st deputy mayor of Colmar, former supporter of Gilbert Meyer (former Colmar mayor who announced he will not seek another term, then decided he will and came second at the first round of the municipal election and did not file for the second round after his list completely exploded politically), she joined Eric Strauman (now former MP and new mayor) before the first round and so became 1st deputy mayor (she was 2nd on the list). She was a longtime Modem member but joined LR in june to be selected for the MP seat. Yves Hemedinger was 1st deputy mayor of Gilbert Meyer for a long time. He was 3rd in his list for the 2020 municipal election. When in may, Gilbert Meyer announced that he rather supported Claudine Ganter to become mayor if the list win (Meyer had a stroke in may), Hemedinger was outraged and the explosion occured. Since Meyer decided not to file for the second round, Hemedinger is not elected anymore.
However Uhlrich-Mallet is not candidate. Hemedinger is candidate but his selection is not official !
LREM has first said they would not select a candidate. But there is a candidate who says he is LREM, Jean-Frédéric Baechler. He was candidate in Mulhouse in the 2020 municipal election (which is not part of the constituency) 10th in a list by LREM candidates who didn't have the official selection of LREM (another list had it). They only got 8% and couldn't file for the second round. So he probably isn't supported officially by LREM now.
Greens (EELV) have put forward Frédéric Hilbert, who was candidate at the Colmar municipal election (15% at the first round with the support of the left, 36% at the second round against Strauman) ( elections.interieur.gouv.fr/municipales-2020/068/068066.html ). On the left, there is also a LO (trotskyst) candidate and a "Gilets jaunes" (yellow vests) candidate, Christophe Kleitz, former candidate for the "parti du vote blanc" (null-vote party).
There is a RN candidate and some other non-partisan candidates.
In Maine-et-Loire 3rd (very rural constituency with the most populous city Baugé-en-Anjou, 11 000 inhabitants, it is north of Saumur (with a 6 000 inhabitants fraction of the city) and east of Angers), there shouldn't have been any problem for LR either. But when you're so overwhelmingly dominant, you always face the risk of lots of people wanting to take the seat. The MP, Jean-Charles Taugourdeau was elected mayor of the new city of Beaufort-en-Anjou (a merger of Beaufort-en-Vallée and Gée) after leaving the position from 2017 to 2020 to a deputy while he was an MP. His substitute, Elisabeth Marquet was reelected as mayor of Jarzé-villages (a merger of her city of Jarzé with Beauvau, Chaumont-d'Anjou, and Lué-en-Baugeois). The MP selected his parliamentary assistant, Anne-Laure Blin, who is supported by the LR national selection commission. But she is rather an unknown locally, and the local LR party for Maine-et-Loire prefered the candidacy of Adrien Denis, mayor of Noyant-Villages (5 000 inhabitants, a merger of 14 small cities). He is candidate with the support of small right-wing parties (Mouvement de la ruralité, former CPNT (chasse, pêche, nature et traditions; hunting, fishing, nature and traditions) and Debout la France). Guy Bertin, mayor of Neuillé (1000 inhabitants) and departmental councillor declared his candidacy. Without asking for it apparently, he is supported by LREM. He said he would not join the LREM grouping but rather be a part of a constructive minority if elected.
The left have coalesced around Daphnée Raveneau, Green party (former 1st deputy mayor of La Seiches-sur-le-Loir of a right-wing mayor), and her substitute, PS Ludovid Lantrain, parliamentary assistant of PS Sarthe senator Nadine Grelet. There's a LO candidate as well.
RN has a candidate too.
In Seine-Maritime 5th (quite rural constituency inside the regional parc "Boucles de la Seine" (which would be quite a nice name for the constituency) between Rouen and Le Havre) the PS MP Christophe Bouillon (which is favoured by some to head the list for the Normandie regional elections) became mayor of Barentin while his substitute stayed mayor of Rives-en-Seine. Gérard Leseul was selected by the PS. He doesn't have a local mandate. His substitute is Martine Blondel, departemental councillor and former mayor of Touffreville la Cable (until 2014).
There is an Insoumis-PCF ticket headed by Maxime Da Silva is (or was?) parliamentary assistant to insoumis MP Michel Larive (from Ariège, quite a long way !) with a PCF municipal councillor Marie-Odile Lecourtois, who was substitute to Jean-Paul Lecoq, PCF MP between 2007 and 2012 (the constituency was different at the time and her city was included in this Le Havre constituency).
There is a Générations-EELV ticket with municipal councillor of Le Houlme Alban Al Jiboury (former PS now Générations) and Green Rouen municipal councillor Enora Chopard (which is not part of the constituency).
Patricia Lhoir, former municipal councillor of Saint-Martin de Boscherville is candidate for LREM (there was no LREM candidate in 2017, which was the case for several PS MPs which were viewed as "politically close") with Paul Bonmartel, municipal councillor in Le Trait.
There is also a LR ticket, a RN ticket, a UPR ticket and a LO ticket.
It should be a left-wing constituency, probably PS.
In Val-de-Marne 9th (Alfortville and party of Vitry-sur-Seine), Luc Carvounas (PS) MP became mayor of Alfortville. His substitute is a student at the ENA school for high civil servant and cannot be both. PS have fielded an Alfortville deputy-mayor and departmental councillor Isabelle Santiago. PCF which control the Vitry sur Seine city (although the former mayor's list was reelected, the municipal councillors decided to get rid of him at the first meeting of the new council, and chose another PCF mayor, which created tensions to say the least) has fielded Fatmata Konaté but they will probably not campaign thoroughly (they have good relationships with Carvounas and want to keep the département in alliance with PS in 2021). Insoumis have fielded Christian Benedetti, an Alfortville-based stage director. Greens have been divided in Vitry for the municipal election so it's a parisian deputy head of EELV which was "parachutée" (that's how we call it) with, as substitute, a candidate in the unsupported list in Vitry. LREM fielded Jonathan Rosenblum, head of the LREM list in the municipal election (13,75% in the only round necessary for Carvounas to win with 57%). LR have fielded Michèle Bonhomme-Afflatet, spouse of the LR head of the Vitry municipal list (16 and then 24% in the first and secound round).
RN and LO also fielded candidates.
Finally, in La Réunion 2nd, Huguette Bello was elected back mayor of Saint-Paul (she was beaten in 2014 after one term) and her substitute Olivier Hoarau reelected mayor of Le Port. They both were part of the PCR (Parti Communiste Réunionnais) headed by long-time leader Paul Vergès, but they created their own party PLR Pour La Réunion in 2012. She remained part of the GDR (communists and other left-wing MPs from over-sea territories) grouping at the Assemblée Nationale since 2007 (before that, she has been also part of the RCV grouping, which was a technical group of Greens, radical-left -center-left- and Mouvement des Citoyens between 1997 and 2002).
Bello supports Karine Lebon from PLR, who is also supported by PCR and PS. A dissident PCR candidate Philippe Robert (supported by PCR and PLR at the municipal election of La Possession against a former Green mayor) is on the field. Alain Bénard, former UMP mayor of Saint-Paul (beaten by Bello in 2008 and in a by-election in 2009, he was candidate in 2020 and came third after the LR incumbent -2014-2020- mayor Sinimalé; they merged but were beaten by Bello in june) is candidate with LR support. Greens have fielded a candidate (who did 3% in 2017). In 2017, Bello got 57% of the votes on the first run (but didn't win due to lack of participation - you need 50%+1 votes but 25% of registered voters to be elected in the first round; she only got 17%) and 74% in the second run against LR.
There are quite a lot of other candidates, including Modem Laurence Lougnon for the presidential majority.
Concerning the "cumul" of local and national mandates:
- you cannot be both a national assembly MP and a senator (or MEP) - since 2017, you cannot be both a member of parliament (député, sénateur or MEP) AND part of the executive of a local council (municipal, departemental, regional, or inter-municipal -"intercommunalité") - Since quite a few decades, you cannot have three mandates among (député, sénateur, mep, regional councillor, departmeental councillor, municipal councillor above 1000 inhabitants).
- Since 2017, you cannot be president of separate local councils (regional, departmeental and municipal); so you cannot be mayor and president of the département.
If you are an MP (député, sénateur or MEP), while you are part of the government, your substitute (or the first unelected in the list if it's a list-election) becomes an MP, but when you leave the governement, you are automatically returned.
You can be part of the government and be mayor. You even can be departemental councillor, regional councillor, municipal councillor of a city with less than 1000 inhabitants AND minister, since minister is not an elected position. But some governments try to force ministers to resign from elected positions. So it's not a rule, it's a policy.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 2, 2020 12:01:34 GMT
I love how Alsace politicians always have names that sound like the first name is taken from the French pot and the surname from the German pot.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 2, 2020 13:18:27 GMT
You can be part of the government and be mayor. You even can be departemental councillor, regional councillor, municipal councillor of a city with less than 1000 inhabitants AND minister, since minister is not an elected position. But some governments try to force ministers to resign from elected positions. So it's not a rule, it's a policy. Aah so it's under 1000 people. Thanks. tonygreaves' post and what I read yesterday implied it was all mayors. |
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relique
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Post by relique on Sept 2, 2020 13:40:54 GMT
You can be part of the government and be mayor. You even can be departemental councillor, regional councillor, municipal councillor of a city with less than 1000 inhabitants AND minister, since minister is not an elected position. But some governments try to force ministers to resign from elected positions. So it's not a rule, it's a policy. Aah so it's under 1000 people. Thanks. tonygreaves ' post and what I read yesterday implied it was all mayors. Hum, no.
The rule "under 1000 people" is for the third mandate. (For example: if you are regional councillor and departmental councillor and are elected municipal councillor, you have to quit one of your three mandates IF the city you are elected in is over 1000 inhabitants)
No MP can be mayor or president of a Region, a Département or an Intercommnalité.
But ministers can. Bayrou can be mayor. No problem with that. But he couldn't be senator and mayor at the same time.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 2, 2020 17:05:51 GMT
Aah so it's under 1000 people. Thanks. tonygreaves ' post and what I read yesterday implied it was all mayors. Hum, no.
The rule "under 1000 people" is for the third mandate. (For example: if you are regional councillor and departmental councillor and are elected municipal councillor, you have to quit one of your three mandates IF the city you are elected in is over 1000 inhabitants)
No MP can be mayor or president of a Region, a Département or an Intercommnalité.
But ministers can. Bayrou can be mayor. No problem with that. But he couldn't be senator and mayor at the same time.
When did this change? I remember MPs being mayors as well. Was this when local government was restructured? |
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relique
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Post by relique on Sept 2, 2020 17:11:45 GMT
Hum, no.
The rule "under 1000 people" is for the third mandate. (For example: if you are regional councillor and departmental councillor and are elected municipal councillor, you have to quit one of your three mandates IF the city you are elected in is over 1000 inhabitants)
No MP can be mayor or president of a Region, a Département or an Intercommnalité.
But ministers can. Bayrou can be mayor. No problem with that. But he couldn't be senator and mayor at the same time.
When did this change? I remember MPs being mayors as well. Was this when local government was restructured? It was voted during the Hollande presidency but only applied after the 2017 legislative elections for the députés and the 2017 september senate elections for the senators. The rule for 3 mandates is older. I should want to look to be sure but i think it was during Mitterand's presidency maybe |
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 4, 2020 19:47:29 GMT
Isn't real local politics fun? Thanks for all that detail. I can't wait for seeing how people vote.
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relique
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Post by relique on Sept 4, 2020 20:05:59 GMT
Isn't real local politics fun? Thanks for all that detail. I can't wait for seeing how people vote. If you really want to have fun with local politics, the best in french elections are senate elections !
You have a certain number of "grands électeurs" either elected people (MPs, regional or departemental councillors, which mostly belong to a political party) or elected by the municipal councils, where councillors are more than often not members of a political party.
So you need good psephologists to know which council favours which candidates or political party, given also that the choice of candidates is very important. A bit like irish election, the territorial aspect is important, and some candidates have a lot of traction with "grands électeurs" from their "terre d'élection" (where they are elected).
I did a post on these elections elsewhere and when the lists of candidates are finalized, I'll do another.
Edit: and honestly, in the legislative by-elections, there will probably be abismal participation (20, 30% top) while for the senate elections, there is usually 95-100% participation.
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 7, 2020 21:31:37 GMT
Thanks for the link. (I can read French!)
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relique
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Post by relique on Sept 20, 2020 16:45:29 GMT
We have started counting ballots in some of the by-elections. In La Réunion 2nd, the candidate Karine Lebon (PLR, in the communist grouping), supported by the incumbent Huguette Bello is largely ahead. She will need a second run (you need 25% of registered voters to be elected in the first round, and participation was between 10 and 20%). She will probably face Audrey Fontaine, former UDI and former deputy mayor of Saint-Paul (when it was held by the right). The polls closed at 6pm (45 minutes ago) in some constituencies (Haut-Rhin, Seine Maritime, Maine-et-Loire) but I think they may close later for the two constituencies in the parisian region.
Edit:
every single time there are by-elections nowadays in France, I'm angry at the media (and also the political parties) that they just don't talk about it. There is sometimes a bit of local media coverage (they presdent the candidates a few days before and SOMETIMES they give the results).
We are close to the end in Haut-Rhin 1st, but we still need the final results in Colmar (about 55% of the constituency's population). With all the other "communes", the right-wing Hemedinger is largely ahead with more than 40%. 2nd is RN's Zimmermann with 22% but will probably be 3rd, because Greens' Hilbert (supported by the left) is at 19% and should be well ahead of Zimmermann in Colmar (he was the first in the Green's list at the municipal level and, when elected, he joined the right-wing majority to become deputy-mayor; not really a lefty).
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relique
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Post by relique on Sept 22, 2020 13:46:00 GMT
Well, the final result of the first round. There will be a run off everywhere since there was not enough participation for an election in the first round.
Seine-Maritime 5th: (incumbent PS Bouillon, elected without a En Marche candidate against him; this explains why he did such a big score at the time)
Gérard Leseul (PS): 39,94% (-1,92) => qualified for the runoff
Jean-Cyril Montier (RN): 18,01% (-0,81) => qualified for the runoff
Patricia Lhoir (LREM): 10,72% (+10,72)
Michel Allais (LR): 9,71% (-11,41)
Auban Al Jiboury (G·s-EELV): 8,82% (+4,96)
Maxime da Silva (LFI-PCF): 8,70% (-3,03)
Valérie Foissey (LO): 2,73 (+1,21)
Jean-Christophe Loutre (UPR): 1,73% (+0,63)
A confirmation that while 2017 LREM voters were tilted left (and weakened PS candidates throughout France), they nowadays tilt right and seem to weaken LR more.
Val-de-Marne 9th: incumbent Luc Carvounas (PS), supported by EELV in 2017.
Isabelle Santiago (PS) 33,74% (+13,20) ==> qualified for runoff
Sandra Regol (EELV) 17,35% (+17,35) ==> qualified for runoff
Jonathan Rosenblum (LREM) 10,00% (-19,25)
Fatmata Konaté (unsupported by the party PCF) 9,67% (+0,87 from 2017 when she was supported by PCF)
Gaëtan Dussausaye (RN) 9,00% (+0,46)
Michèle Bonhomme-Afflatet (LR) 8,99% (+1,15)
Christian Benedetti (LFI-PCF) 437 6,61% (-15,08)
Sandrine Ruchot (LO) 2,44% (+1,52)
Abdallah Benbekta (unsupported by the party EELV) 2,21%
Big weakening of LFI and LREM here in favour of PS and EELV.
Yvelines 11th: Incumbent: Nadia Hai (LREM), nominated to government; resigned from her seat so that her replacement would not be seated
Philippe Benassaya (LR-UDI): 36,62% (+13,53) ==> qualified to runoff
Sandrine Grandgambe (G·s-EELV): 24,83% (+2,24 compared to Hamon PS in 2017) ==> qualified to runoff
Pierre Luce (LREM): 15,42% (-17,56)
Laurent Morin (RN): 7,13% (+0,1)
Valérie Froberger (PCF-LFI): 6,48% (-3,93 compared to LFI + PCF in 2017)
Olivier Gallant (DLF): 3,57% (+2,25)
Jérémy Bizet (FE-MEI): 2,49% (+2,49)
Patrick Planque (LO): 1,32% (+0,82)
Laurent Cocheton (UPR): 1,20% (+0,58)
Kamal Benmarouf (RPR): 0,93% (+0,93)
The decrease of LREM allowed the left to qualify. But the right seem poised to take back the seat lost in 2012 (in the most left-wing seat of the département, which is not that left-wing !).
LREM lost this seat already. That's one pickup, but from which opposition ?
La Réunion 2nd: Incumbent: Huguette Bello (PLR, in the communist grouping) elected mayor of Saint-Paul (her replacement elected mayor of Le Port)
Karine Lebon (PLR-PCR-PS-LFI): 52,15% (-4,93) ==> qualified for runoff
Audrey Fontaine (DVD) 15,83% (+15,83) ==> qualified for runoff
Philippe Robert (not supported by party PCR) 6,19% (+6,19)
Alain Bénard (OR-LR) 5,41% (-14,96)
Patrick Serveaux (DIV) 4,80%
Jean-François Nativel (DIV) 3,83%
Charles Moyac (EELV) 3,25% (-0,44)
Laurence Lougnon (LPA-MoDem) 1,98% (-5,49)
Michelle Lartin-Graja (RN) 1,58% (-2,69)
Jacques Elie Dijoux (DVD) 1,43%
Hary Grondin (DIV) 1,41%
Davilla Verdun (DVD) 1,13%
Rémy Massain (PRG) 0,82%
Jean-Philippe Desby (DIV) 0,20%
Karine Lebon is a bit weakened because of the Robert candidacy. The right-wing vote got tired of Alain Bénard, former mayor of Saint-Paul (1999-2008), son of former mayor (1965-1987) and senator (1983-1987) Paul Bénard, and rallied around Audrey Fontaine. For example, the former candidate in 2017 supported Fontaine.
Haut-Rhin 1st: incumbent: Eric Straumann (LR), elected mayor of Colmar; his replacer was nominated to government
Yves Hemedinger (LR) 45,39% (+7,61) ==> qualified to runoff
Frédéric Hilbert (EELV) 23,53% (+12,01 compared to EELV+LFI+PRG-PS+PCF) ==> qualified to runoff
Christian Zimmermann (RN-LDP) 14,04% (+2,62)
Michel Clog (SE) 7,82%
Pascal Tschaen (DLF) 3,84% (+2,7)
Jean-Frédéric Baechler (not supported by party LREM) 3,13% (-23,11 compared to LREM)
Gilles Schaffar (LO) 2,03% (+1,62)
Thomas Fritz (SE) 0,21%
The left took back some ground from LREM while the absence of an official LREM candidate also benefitted LR candidate.
Maine-et-Loire 3rd: incumbent: Jean-Charles Taugourdeau elected mayor as was his replacer
Anne-Laure Blin ( LR) 25,23% (-1,94) ==> qualified to runoff
Daphnée Raveneau (EELV-PS-PCF-G·s-GÉ) 22,78% (+1,89 compared to LFI+EELV+PRG-PS+PCF) ==> qualified to runoff
Adrien Denis (DLF-LMR) 20,24% (+12,87 compared to another DVD)
Guy Bertin (LREM) 18,45% (-11,51)
Patrice Lancien (RN) 9,78% (-2,71)
Patricia Peillon (LO) 2,11% (+1,38)
Jean-Eudes Gannat (EXD) 1,41%
Here the left doesn't seem to have benefitted from the decrease of LREM. The division of the right between two candidates was the main attribute of this election. LREM is this time eliminated.
The next by-election should be Pas-de-Calais 6th, where PS didn't stand a candidate against former PS now LREM incumbent Brigitte Bourguignon. She was nominated to government while her replacer wants to stay mayor. Bourguignon will be candidate herself and PS should field someone. It will be probably a bit more interesting (a member of government, and MP since 2012, therefore quite well known locally) and maybe a bit more newsworthy.
There is still a chance there's no election if Bourguignon quits the government before her replacer leaves the seat open.
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relique
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Post by relique on Sept 28, 2020 9:14:36 GMT
No surprise yesterday:
The Yvelines seat went for LR (57/42). All the other seats kept the same political party as the incumbent MP.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 28, 2020 12:40:12 GMT
Yvelines is where Versailles is, I think?
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relique
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Post by relique on Sept 28, 2020 13:24:21 GMT
Yvelines is where Versailles is, I think? Yes. It's at the west of Paris. It's a very bourgeois département (like most of western suburbs of big cities in France) and this seat was the only one that could be seen as winnable by the left. In the département council, there is no left-wing councillor.
There should also be a left-wing seat in the northern parts (where Limay, Les Mureaux, Magnanville, Andrésy and Carrières-sous-Poissy are ) but redistricting quite dismembered the left-wing cities across three constituencies. The 8th was PS between 2012 and 2017.
Funnily enough, while between 2012 and 2017, PS had two MPs in the 8th and the 11th, and the 10 other constituencies went for LR (or its allies), in 2017, LR lost all their constituencies to LREM (or the ally Modem) except for the 8th which went LR. The left, if united in this constituency, would probably have kept it.
Now, with yesterday's win, LR has got the same constituencies as PS between 2012-2017 while LREM (and allies) has the same constituencies as LR (and allies) between 2012-2017.
(The old 10th constituency (redistricted in 2012) was briefly EELV - Greens- after a by-election in 2010; before that, the left held the same 2 seats - 8th and 11th - between 1997 and 2002; they held both and a third one, the 7th (with Michel Rocard, nonetheless) between 1988 and 1993, and in 1981, in another redistricting (there was one in 1988), PS held four at of eight constituencies, only losing in four constituencies around Versailles)
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relique
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Post by relique on Nov 30, 2020 9:37:21 GMT
There is a "clear uncertainty" on the dates of the next by-elections. One should have been held in december (13th and 20th) in Pas de Calais 6th (with the former PS now minister Brigitte Bourguignon facing a tough reelection campaign). This district is quite large, from the coast north of Boulogne-sur-Mer (Wissant), just across the chanel from Lydd I guess, until south of Saint-Omer, in what we call the "audomarois". It is a very rural socialist district, with some commuters from Calais or Boulogne. It will however most probably be postponed. But there is already a list of candidates: Brigitte Bourguignon (incumbent, LREM) with Christophe Leclercq (local councillor in Seninghem) Jérôme Jossien (Générations, Benoît Hamon's movement, local councillor in Pernes) with Patricia Duvieubourg (PCF) Laure Bourel (LO) with Jean-Paul Wallard (LO) Marie-Christine Bourgeois (RN, regional councillor) with Cédric Fasquelle (RN) Bastien Marguerite-Garin (PS, local councillor in Boulogne-sur-Mer, which is not in the district) with Valérie Cormont (Mouvement des Citoyens) Faustine Maliar (LR, regional councillor, from Calais, not in the district) with Jean-Luc Marcotte (local -opposition- councillor in Desvres, one of the major cities here) Jérémy Revillon (probably left but no known affiliation) with Hélène Margez-Deneuveglise
Bourguignon was favorite to retain her constituency (against RN, probably), but it is very difficult to know what kind of message the voters might want to send the government. I think the socialists might have put quite a good fight with another candidate (someone already elected in the district). LR as well.
There will be another by-election soon. George Pau-Langevin (PS, former minister) was appointed in an administrative position that is not compatible with being an MP. It will trigger a by-election with a highly targetet Paris 15th district, part of the 20ème arrondissement. She was elected with no LREM candidate against her. The Greens will try to target this constituency. The 20ème was easily won by the PS at the local election of march-june.
In the district, the local election's results were:
1st round:
PS: 37,81% LR: 14,82% LREM: 12,91% (it was the incumbent -former PS- mayor of the arrondissement)
EELV: 10,92% LFI: 9,70% Right-wing independent: 7,16% RN: 2,13% others: 4,5%
2nd round:
PS-EELV: 56,44% LR: 22,54% LFI: 11,46% LREM: 9,56%
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Post by into_oblivion on Dec 11, 2020 16:15:24 GMT
Are there any places where we can view the full results of the 2nd round?
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relique
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Post by relique on Dec 11, 2020 16:51:45 GMT
Are there any places where we can view the full results of the 2nd round? Full results = for each voting place, for each city inside the constituency ? Or just at the constituency level ?
At the constituency level, I think someone might have put on wikipedia the numbers. For more thorough reports, you'd have to look to each "préfecture" 's website.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 11, 2020 16:59:59 GMT
Hum, no.
The rule "under 1000 people" is for the third mandate. (For example: if you are regional councillor and departmental councillor and are elected municipal councillor, you have to quit one of your three mandates IF the city you are elected in is over 1000 inhabitants)
No MP can be mayor or president of a Region, a Département or an Intercommnalité.
But ministers can. Bayrou can be mayor. No problem with that. But he couldn't be senator and mayor at the same time.
When did this change? I remember MPs being mayors as well. Was this when local government was restructured? There was a time when many French politicians would remain as mayor of their political base even when they were in the cabinet or even Prime Minister. For example Gaston Defferre was mayor of Marseilles from 1953 until his death in 1986. He held cabinet posts as Minister of Overseas Finance from 1956-7 and Minister of the Interior from 1981-4. He stood for President in 1969 but stayed with his power base in Marseilles. Similarly François Mitterrand retained his position of Mayor of Château-Chinon from 1957 till he stood down when elected President in 1981. |
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