Post by The Bishop on Aug 30, 2020 20:55:28 GMT
This constituency has existed in its present form since the 1950 general election - in that time it has usually been the largest seat by area in England and skirts the city constituency of Carlisle to take in the northernmost parts of Cumbria that (as the name suggests) borders Scotland. Since the 1983 GE it has taken in the northern part of historic Westmorland, and took a bit more of that for the 2010 GE which meant it for the first time encompassed all of the Eden district. At the same time, it shed some peripheral areas of the seat to both Carlisle and Workington.
A remarkable 99% of people here are white - second in the whole of England. Over 70% consider themselves Christian, and a similar percentage are either home owners or paying a mortgage. Penrith is the largest town, but even that is mostly service and tourism related (with a traditional output from agriculture) rather than industrial. The other main towns are Appleby, the notably elevated Alston and Wigton (the last two actually have some industry) but the vast bulk of this constituency is rural - much of it given over to farming but also containing the northern Lake District and part of the northern Pennines (including the highest point in that extensive range, Cross Fell)
The predecessor seats to this one - North Cumberland and Penrith and Cockermouth - actually had some Liberal successes after they were set up in 1918. The latter elected a Liberal in 1922 only for the Tories to win a year later, come 1935 the Liberals did not even stand a candidate. But in that same year they had a breakthrough in N Cumberland, and the winner then narrowly held in 1945 (helped in both cases by having no Labour opponent) Come the following election the entirety of that seat and the eastern part of P&C went into the new constituency (the area around Cockermouth being taken by Workington, where it has remained to this day) Penrith and the Border then started as it meant to go on, with a comfortable Tory win by nearly 9k against the Liberals with Labour not far behind. The following election in 1951 saw the Tories go above 50% of the vote and Labour move into second place - two factors that remained in situ for a remarkably stable series of results that continued until 1979. From 1955 the sitting Tory for this by then heartland seat was William Whitelaw, who became part of the local "furniture" whilst making a name for himself in national politics, not least as Thatcher's loyal deputy after she saw him off for the Tory leadership in 1975. In his final contest in 1983, he took nearly 60% of the vote and a 15k majority - the ease of his win may have convinced the PM to move him "upstairs" to the Lords as their new leader just a matter of days after the election.
It nearly cost the Tories dear, unlike in most seats in their post-1950 dark days the Liberals had never given up here - fielding a candidate in every GE since the war and always saving their deposit even at its old 12.5% level - and in that year's contest they had moved into a comfortable second with over a quarter of the vote. The byelection - so soon after the Tories historic landslide win - saw them cut the Tory majority to barely 500 votes and a recount was required to see their hopeful David Maclean (a Scot just like his predecessor) elected after a swing of nearly 15% to the Liberals. Any hopes this had any longer term significance were dashed in 1987, however, as Maclean took over 60% - following this up in 1992 with a Tory majority of 18k, their highest ever up to that point. Tory dominance was only dented here even in 1997, and in 2010 Maclean handed over to yet another Scottish born Tory, Rory Stewart. In 2015, with the opposition unusually divided as the LibDems (second in every election since 1983) dropped to fourth, he enjoyed a majority of nearly 20k - still the record in this seat. A totally secure place to pursue his own ambitions then, which culminated in an ill fated bid for the leadership come Theresa May's exit, but as it was the main threat to him came from his "own" side as he became one of the more prominent victims of the Cummings "purge" of pro-Europeans last year, and at December's election he dropped previously announced plans to stand as an Independent allowing the new Tory standard bearer Neil Hudson (yet another Scot!) to romp home with 60% and a majority of 18.5k.
And it is rather difficult to see elections here in the foreseeable future differing greatly from the past. At council level the Tory hegemony is not as total as it is for Westminster, even as they slowly but steadily push out the traditionally dominant Independents from the rural wards in local elections - Penrith can often elect non-Tory councillors, Labour have a significant presence in Wigton (peer and one time SDP stalwart Roger Liddle winning the county council seat even in their poor year of 2017) and Alston, whilst the LibDems have started to clean up in historic Westmorland in the south of the seat (mindful not least of that area maybe going south to Tim Farron's patch in boundary changes, one strongly suspects) But all that is ultimately drowned out by the deep-dyed Tory DNA of most of this constituency, and barring some unexpected cataclysm it looks set - and uniquely thus amongst the Cumbrian seats, despite their present strong position in the county - to remain a banker for them as far as the eye can see.
A remarkable 99% of people here are white - second in the whole of England. Over 70% consider themselves Christian, and a similar percentage are either home owners or paying a mortgage. Penrith is the largest town, but even that is mostly service and tourism related (with a traditional output from agriculture) rather than industrial. The other main towns are Appleby, the notably elevated Alston and Wigton (the last two actually have some industry) but the vast bulk of this constituency is rural - much of it given over to farming but also containing the northern Lake District and part of the northern Pennines (including the highest point in that extensive range, Cross Fell)
The predecessor seats to this one - North Cumberland and Penrith and Cockermouth - actually had some Liberal successes after they were set up in 1918. The latter elected a Liberal in 1922 only for the Tories to win a year later, come 1935 the Liberals did not even stand a candidate. But in that same year they had a breakthrough in N Cumberland, and the winner then narrowly held in 1945 (helped in both cases by having no Labour opponent) Come the following election the entirety of that seat and the eastern part of P&C went into the new constituency (the area around Cockermouth being taken by Workington, where it has remained to this day) Penrith and the Border then started as it meant to go on, with a comfortable Tory win by nearly 9k against the Liberals with Labour not far behind. The following election in 1951 saw the Tories go above 50% of the vote and Labour move into second place - two factors that remained in situ for a remarkably stable series of results that continued until 1979. From 1955 the sitting Tory for this by then heartland seat was William Whitelaw, who became part of the local "furniture" whilst making a name for himself in national politics, not least as Thatcher's loyal deputy after she saw him off for the Tory leadership in 1975. In his final contest in 1983, he took nearly 60% of the vote and a 15k majority - the ease of his win may have convinced the PM to move him "upstairs" to the Lords as their new leader just a matter of days after the election.
It nearly cost the Tories dear, unlike in most seats in their post-1950 dark days the Liberals had never given up here - fielding a candidate in every GE since the war and always saving their deposit even at its old 12.5% level - and in that year's contest they had moved into a comfortable second with over a quarter of the vote. The byelection - so soon after the Tories historic landslide win - saw them cut the Tory majority to barely 500 votes and a recount was required to see their hopeful David Maclean (a Scot just like his predecessor) elected after a swing of nearly 15% to the Liberals. Any hopes this had any longer term significance were dashed in 1987, however, as Maclean took over 60% - following this up in 1992 with a Tory majority of 18k, their highest ever up to that point. Tory dominance was only dented here even in 1997, and in 2010 Maclean handed over to yet another Scottish born Tory, Rory Stewart. In 2015, with the opposition unusually divided as the LibDems (second in every election since 1983) dropped to fourth, he enjoyed a majority of nearly 20k - still the record in this seat. A totally secure place to pursue his own ambitions then, which culminated in an ill fated bid for the leadership come Theresa May's exit, but as it was the main threat to him came from his "own" side as he became one of the more prominent victims of the Cummings "purge" of pro-Europeans last year, and at December's election he dropped previously announced plans to stand as an Independent allowing the new Tory standard bearer Neil Hudson (yet another Scot!) to romp home with 60% and a majority of 18.5k.
And it is rather difficult to see elections here in the foreseeable future differing greatly from the past. At council level the Tory hegemony is not as total as it is for Westminster, even as they slowly but steadily push out the traditionally dominant Independents from the rural wards in local elections - Penrith can often elect non-Tory councillors, Labour have a significant presence in Wigton (peer and one time SDP stalwart Roger Liddle winning the county council seat even in their poor year of 2017) and Alston, whilst the LibDems have started to clean up in historic Westmorland in the south of the seat (mindful not least of that area maybe going south to Tim Farron's patch in boundary changes, one strongly suspects) But all that is ultimately drowned out by the deep-dyed Tory DNA of most of this constituency, and barring some unexpected cataclysm it looks set - and uniquely thus amongst the Cumbrian seats, despite their present strong position in the county - to remain a banker for them as far as the eye can see.
