Post by John Chanin on Aug 27, 2020 10:49:40 GMT
Nuneaton is famous for George Eliot, and they won’t let you forget it. Not only is there a George Eliot hospital, a George Eliot school, and a George Eliot business park, but the signs at the border welcome you to George Eliot country. Now while George Eliot is without question one of our best classic writers, this over emphasis seems to show a lack of self-confidence in this rather workaday industrial town. The great majority of the constituency consists of the town itself which has a population of some 80,000. There is a small rural addendum - the Arbury area of Nuneaton borough to the south of the town, and the anomalous North Warwickshire ward of Arley & Whitacre. The other North Warwickshire ward included in the seat (Hartshill) is part of the town’s built-up area.
As the statistics below show, this is a working-class town, with more people in routine than managerial jobs, and a high level of people with minimal qualifications. The town developed on the back of the Warwickshire coalfield, but this part of the coalfield was the first to close. There is a constant reminder of its mining past however in the form of Mount Judd to the north of the town, which looks like a volcano with a near perfect cone, but is in fact a giant spoil heap. Like most industrial towns it has not done well in the last 50 years, and this is reflected in its politics. This is not to say there isn’t variety. On the west side of town are the sprawling council estates of Camp Hill and Bar Pool. This is the poorest part of town with half the population in routine jobs, and was the core Labour vote in the town. The town centre, and Wem Brook to the south where there are more council estates, are not much better off, and they traditionally vote Labour too. However at the 2021 local elections Labour held just the town centre Abbey ward. East of the main railway line (a branch of the West Coast mainline), which cuts through the town, is however rather different. The area is 90% owner-occupied, with twice as many managerial as routine workers, and this part of the town normally votes Conservative at local elections, as do the semi-rural wards of Arbury and Galley Common on the western outskirts of the town. The Coventry canal also winds its way through the town, once an important artery for its coal and industrial products, alongside the river Anker which is a tributary of the Tame. The town is not as white as similar places in the Midlands and North with a significant Asian population in the town centre, where the central Abbey ward is only 75% white.
Prior to 1983 when a major redistribution removed even more working-class Bedworth and replaced it with rural surroundings, Nuneaton was considered a safe Labour seat, but it fell to the Conservatives in the 1983 landslide, with a 10% majority, though it was one of the seats regained in 1992. Labour held it until 2010, when despite a favourable boundary change (as the rural component was reduced) it fell narrowly to the Conservatives. Like other medium sized industrial towns there has been a long-term trend to the Conservatives. Majorities in 2015 and 2017 were similar to those in 1983 and 1987, despite the national picture being much closer, and 2019 showed the huge swing to the Conservatives characteristic of such seats across the country. Much of the historically Labour vote on the council estates must have switched allegiance (66% voted Leave at the referendum in Nuneaton & Bedworth), and it remains to be seen whether this will be permanent or we will see a sharp swing back as the EU loses its salience. The MP here is Marcus Jones, a local boy and former councillor and solicitor, who won the seat in 2010.
Warwickshire provided an unusually easy task for the Boundary Commission as the only change required (apart from realignment to new ward boundaries) was to move one ward from Warwick & Leamington to Kenilworth & Southam. They could have realigned the seats to match local authority boundaries, but chose not to.
Census data: Owner-occupied 71% (205/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (339th), social rented 15% (296th).
: White 92%, Black 1%, South Asian 5%, Mixed 1%, Other 2%
: Managerial & professional 30% (434th), Routine & Semi-routine 37% (106th)
: Degree level 19%(472nd), Minimal qualifications 43%(120th)
: Students 2.9% (355th), Over 65: 15% (374th)
As the statistics below show, this is a working-class town, with more people in routine than managerial jobs, and a high level of people with minimal qualifications. The town developed on the back of the Warwickshire coalfield, but this part of the coalfield was the first to close. There is a constant reminder of its mining past however in the form of Mount Judd to the north of the town, which looks like a volcano with a near perfect cone, but is in fact a giant spoil heap. Like most industrial towns it has not done well in the last 50 years, and this is reflected in its politics. This is not to say there isn’t variety. On the west side of town are the sprawling council estates of Camp Hill and Bar Pool. This is the poorest part of town with half the population in routine jobs, and was the core Labour vote in the town. The town centre, and Wem Brook to the south where there are more council estates, are not much better off, and they traditionally vote Labour too. However at the 2021 local elections Labour held just the town centre Abbey ward. East of the main railway line (a branch of the West Coast mainline), which cuts through the town, is however rather different. The area is 90% owner-occupied, with twice as many managerial as routine workers, and this part of the town normally votes Conservative at local elections, as do the semi-rural wards of Arbury and Galley Common on the western outskirts of the town. The Coventry canal also winds its way through the town, once an important artery for its coal and industrial products, alongside the river Anker which is a tributary of the Tame. The town is not as white as similar places in the Midlands and North with a significant Asian population in the town centre, where the central Abbey ward is only 75% white.
Prior to 1983 when a major redistribution removed even more working-class Bedworth and replaced it with rural surroundings, Nuneaton was considered a safe Labour seat, but it fell to the Conservatives in the 1983 landslide, with a 10% majority, though it was one of the seats regained in 1992. Labour held it until 2010, when despite a favourable boundary change (as the rural component was reduced) it fell narrowly to the Conservatives. Like other medium sized industrial towns there has been a long-term trend to the Conservatives. Majorities in 2015 and 2017 were similar to those in 1983 and 1987, despite the national picture being much closer, and 2019 showed the huge swing to the Conservatives characteristic of such seats across the country. Much of the historically Labour vote on the council estates must have switched allegiance (66% voted Leave at the referendum in Nuneaton & Bedworth), and it remains to be seen whether this will be permanent or we will see a sharp swing back as the EU loses its salience. The MP here is Marcus Jones, a local boy and former councillor and solicitor, who won the seat in 2010.
Warwickshire provided an unusually easy task for the Boundary Commission as the only change required (apart from realignment to new ward boundaries) was to move one ward from Warwick & Leamington to Kenilworth & Southam. They could have realigned the seats to match local authority boundaries, but chose not to.
Census data: Owner-occupied 71% (205/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (339th), social rented 15% (296th).
: White 92%, Black 1%, South Asian 5%, Mixed 1%, Other 2%
: Managerial & professional 30% (434th), Routine & Semi-routine 37% (106th)
: Degree level 19%(472nd), Minimal qualifications 43%(120th)
: Students 2.9% (355th), Over 65: 15% (374th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Conservative | 18,536 | 41.5% | 20,827 | 45.5% | 23,755 | 51.6% | 27,390 | 60.6% |
Labour | 16,467 | 36.9% | 15,945 | 34.9% | 19,016 | 41.3% | 14,246 | 31.5% |
Liberal Democrat | 6,846 | 15.3% | 816 | 1.8% | 914 | 2.0% | 1,862 | 4.1% |
UKIP | 6,582 | 14.4% | 1,619 | 3.5% | ||||
Green | 1,281 | 2.8% | 763 | 1.7% | 1,692 | 3.7% | ||
Others | 2,797 | 6.3% | 298 | 0.6% | ||||
Majority | 2,069 | 4.6% | 4,882 | 10.7% | 4,739 | 10.3% | 13,144 | 29.1% |
