Aldershot
Aug 15, 2020 19:57:27 GMT
swanarcadian, Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells, and 1 more like this
Post by Robert Waller on Aug 15, 2020 19:57:27 GMT
I’ve just been round to look. It no longer says ‘welcome to the home of the British Army’ at every entrance to the town of Aldershot. But there are signs announcing the borders of ‘Aldershot Barracks – the home of the British Army’. As far as the influence of the military vote within Aldershot constituency goes, it is also right not to over-claim. Not only does the Army play only a small proportional role in employment even here, but the local election turnout recorded in the wards covering the military town (once named Queens after the principal thoroughfare, more recently Wellington) is historically very low (12% in 1992, for example). When local elections coincide with general elections, it reveals that turnout then is also well below average – for example the 45.8% in Wellington in 2010, and 47.7% in Queens in 1992. Labour can win the ‘military’ wards on occasion too, as they did Wellington in 2018, though in May 2019 the Conservatives took it (on a 24% turnout); most of the registered voters here will be ‘other ranks’ rather than officers.
These wards elect to Rushmoor Borough council, and that tells us something else about this constituency. Less than half of the population is actually in Aldershot itself. Most of the rest belongs to the town of Farnborough, which was credited with a population of 57,000 in the 2011 census, compared to 36,000 for Aldershot. There must be a case for this seat to be renamed, say as Aldershot and Farnborough (or even vice versa); but there is also a case for brevity. It is in the north east corner of Hampshire, but there is already a NE Hants seat. Rushmoor would be accurate, as the boundaries currently cover the whole of the borough, with the addition of just two wards from Hart (Blackwater/Hawley and Frogmore/Darby Green). No doubt some would then object that they have no idea where Rushmoor might be (it took its name from the Rushmoor Arena, an amphitheatre showground built by the Army in 1923 for the Aldershot Military Tattoo, and now used, among other things, for stock car racing). Still, Aldershot has been the name since its creation in 1918 – and since that date it has always elected a Conservative MP. The closest ever contest was a win by 2,816 in 1923 in a straight fight with the Liberals. Labour have never come within 6,500 of victory, not even in 1966, 1997 or 2001. In 1945 Tom Winteringham of the Commonwealth party was given a free run against Oliver Lyttleton, who had held the important post of Minister of Production in Churchill’s wartime cabinet, but he fell short by over 5,000 too.
So the Aldershot seat has a long and strong Conservative history. The latest incumbent, Leo Docherty, beat Labour by over 16,000 with a margin of 35% in 2019. Yet its statistics do not make it stand out, except for those which are a function of the Army presence. For example, it is no.1 for the proportion of Buddhists, no doubt because of the Nepalese ’Gurkha’ presence (it is also very high for ‘other Asian’) which extends to the local restaurant business, and in fact, as far as the staff at Fleet service station on the M3. The Aldershot seat is also in the top ten as far as ‘adults in employment’ goes. Its safety is probably due to being in a very Conservative sub-region – the other northern and eastern Hampshire seats are among the strongest in the whole country for the Tories, plus a small, unquantifiable, but distinct tilt to the right due to the connections with the general issue of defence.
Farnborough too has its armed services connections, though more aerial than on the ground. Its airshow has been fascinating plane buffs (and defence contractors) since 1948, but the connection with the Royal Aircraft Establishment is now over a century old. Of Farnborough’s eight Rushmoor wards, six are solidly Conservative, with Labour holding Cherrywood, with its high social rented percentage, and the Liberal Democrats strongest in St Marks, which includes North Camp. In Aldershot Labour took the council estate ward of Aldershot Park (in the south-east of the town and formerly largely the Heron Wood ward) and the gritty North Town, between the shopping centre and the military town. These are not the only parts of the constituency that look on the surface as if they would fit in with being in seat Labour can win in the heat of an election battle. But every skirmish, engagement, encounter, fray, encounter and clash to pick a representative for Parliament has been won since the end of the Great War by the Conservative party – and that looks set to continue till the time of Armageddon.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 12.7% 554/650
Owner-occupied 65.4% 368/650
Private rented 16.8% 203/650
Social rented 15.3% 341/650
White 85.5% 496/650
Black 1.9% 178/650
Asian 9.8% 124/650 (‘other Asian’ 7.1%)
Buddhist 3.1% 1/650
Managerial & professional 33.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.4%
Degree level 25.0% 344/650
No qualifications 18.5% 515/650
Students 6.7% 351/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 64.1% 330/573
Private rented 20.6% 189/573
Social rented 15.3% 277/573
White 78.4%
Black 2.5%
Asian 13.9%
Buddhist 4.4% 1/650
Managerial & professional 33.7% 253/573
Routine & Semi-routine 24.1% 275/573
Degree level 29.8% 344/573
No qualifications 17.9% 282/573
2019 General Election: Aldershot
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Leo Docherty 27,980 58.4 +3.3
Labour Howard Kaye 11,282 23.5 −8.1
Liberal Democrats Alan Hilliar 6,920 14.4 +7.0
Green Donna Wallace 1,750 3.7 +1.4
C Majority 16,698 34.9 +11.4
Turnout 47,932 66.0 +1.8
Registered electors 72,617
Conservative hold
Swing 5.7 Lab to C
These wards elect to Rushmoor Borough council, and that tells us something else about this constituency. Less than half of the population is actually in Aldershot itself. Most of the rest belongs to the town of Farnborough, which was credited with a population of 57,000 in the 2011 census, compared to 36,000 for Aldershot. There must be a case for this seat to be renamed, say as Aldershot and Farnborough (or even vice versa); but there is also a case for brevity. It is in the north east corner of Hampshire, but there is already a NE Hants seat. Rushmoor would be accurate, as the boundaries currently cover the whole of the borough, with the addition of just two wards from Hart (Blackwater/Hawley and Frogmore/Darby Green). No doubt some would then object that they have no idea where Rushmoor might be (it took its name from the Rushmoor Arena, an amphitheatre showground built by the Army in 1923 for the Aldershot Military Tattoo, and now used, among other things, for stock car racing). Still, Aldershot has been the name since its creation in 1918 – and since that date it has always elected a Conservative MP. The closest ever contest was a win by 2,816 in 1923 in a straight fight with the Liberals. Labour have never come within 6,500 of victory, not even in 1966, 1997 or 2001. In 1945 Tom Winteringham of the Commonwealth party was given a free run against Oliver Lyttleton, who had held the important post of Minister of Production in Churchill’s wartime cabinet, but he fell short by over 5,000 too.
So the Aldershot seat has a long and strong Conservative history. The latest incumbent, Leo Docherty, beat Labour by over 16,000 with a margin of 35% in 2019. Yet its statistics do not make it stand out, except for those which are a function of the Army presence. For example, it is no.1 for the proportion of Buddhists, no doubt because of the Nepalese ’Gurkha’ presence (it is also very high for ‘other Asian’) which extends to the local restaurant business, and in fact, as far as the staff at Fleet service station on the M3. The Aldershot seat is also in the top ten as far as ‘adults in employment’ goes. Its safety is probably due to being in a very Conservative sub-region – the other northern and eastern Hampshire seats are among the strongest in the whole country for the Tories, plus a small, unquantifiable, but distinct tilt to the right due to the connections with the general issue of defence.
Farnborough too has its armed services connections, though more aerial than on the ground. Its airshow has been fascinating plane buffs (and defence contractors) since 1948, but the connection with the Royal Aircraft Establishment is now over a century old. Of Farnborough’s eight Rushmoor wards, six are solidly Conservative, with Labour holding Cherrywood, with its high social rented percentage, and the Liberal Democrats strongest in St Marks, which includes North Camp. In Aldershot Labour took the council estate ward of Aldershot Park (in the south-east of the town and formerly largely the Heron Wood ward) and the gritty North Town, between the shopping centre and the military town. These are not the only parts of the constituency that look on the surface as if they would fit in with being in seat Labour can win in the heat of an election battle. But every skirmish, engagement, encounter, fray, encounter and clash to pick a representative for Parliament has been won since the end of the Great War by the Conservative party – and that looks set to continue till the time of Armageddon.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 12.7% 554/650
Owner-occupied 65.4% 368/650
Private rented 16.8% 203/650
Social rented 15.3% 341/650
White 85.5% 496/650
Black 1.9% 178/650
Asian 9.8% 124/650 (‘other Asian’ 7.1%)
Buddhist 3.1% 1/650
Managerial & professional 33.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.4%
Degree level 25.0% 344/650
No qualifications 18.5% 515/650
Students 6.7% 351/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 64.1% 330/573
Private rented 20.6% 189/573
Social rented 15.3% 277/573
White 78.4%
Black 2.5%
Asian 13.9%
Buddhist 4.4% 1/650
Managerial & professional 33.7% 253/573
Routine & Semi-routine 24.1% 275/573
Degree level 29.8% 344/573
No qualifications 17.9% 282/573
2019 General Election: Aldershot
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Leo Docherty 27,980 58.4 +3.3
Labour Howard Kaye 11,282 23.5 −8.1
Liberal Democrats Alan Hilliar 6,920 14.4 +7.0
Green Donna Wallace 1,750 3.7 +1.4
C Majority 16,698 34.9 +11.4
Turnout 47,932 66.0 +1.8
Registered electors 72,617
Conservative hold
Swing 5.7 Lab to C
