Post by andrewp on Aug 13, 2020 15:05:58 GMT
Devon was granted a 12th Constituency in the last boundary review, and there is little doubt that this was the new constituency. It is a bit of a rag bag and is geographically in the middle of the county to the West and South West of Exeter. It was formed from territory from 5 existing constituencies, 4 District council areas and has three distinct areas within it. Most of the small towns are in the corners of the seat- the biggest town is Crediton which has a population of 8000. If anything unites the towns it is a small market town economy and being within the cultural and business orbit of Exeter. There are then hundreds of villages.
This all leads to a constituency which is 98.6% white and with an older age profile than average with 53% of people being over 45, and the constituency ranking 51st nationally for the percentage of over 65’s. The lack of industry means that it is the constituency with the 3rd highest percentage of people who are self employed
The first of the three main areas of population is south of Exeter along the A38. This territory was taken from the oversized Teignbridge and South Hams seats and includes the small towns of Ashburton, Buckfastleigh and Bovey Tracey. Ashburton has a population of 4000 and was the first place to elect a Monster Raving Loony elected representative when Alan Hope was elected to the town council. Buckfastleigh has a population of 3000 and Bovey Tracey about 5000. These small towns are about half way between Exeter and Plymouth and don’t have much industry – they are commuter bases to Exeter, Plymouth and Torquay.
The second area is along the A30 to the north of Dartmoor. This section came from Devon West and Torridge and includes the town of Okehampton. Okehampton is a small market town on the edge of Dartmoor founded on the wool trade and has a population of 6000.
The third and final section is to the North and North West of Exeter. This area came from the Tiverton and Honiton seat and includes the town of Crediton. Crediton is the largest town in the seat and has a population of 8000, was also founded on the wool trade, and is one of the better sections of the seat for the Liberal Democrats.
When this seat was first formed it had a notional 2005 Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats of 2,338. It seems likely that this seat would have been very close between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 1997 and 2001 had it existed then. Conservative MP Mel Stride has never been in much difficulty here though. He won the inaugural contest in 2010 by 9000 and has won more comfortably since then. In 2019 he achieved a majority of 17,721. One curiosity here is that Labour have achieved second place in 2017 and 2019. In 2017, they achieved 27% of the vote- not bad for Rural Devon. The question is where does this Labour vote come from? Local elections don’t give us much of a clue- the wards in this constituency elected 21 Conservative councillors, 17 Lib Dems, 4 Independents and 2 Greens in 2019. And in the Devon CC elections of 2017, the highest Labour share in a division in this seat was 13% in Okehampton. Certainly there are a lot of public sector workers working in Exeter at Councils, Hospitals and Colleges who live outside of the city boundary in villages in this seat. Labour must also have been competitive in the towns, with their highest vote share likely to have been in Okehampton. It is hard to see Labour challenging in this small town seat though, and the Conservatives will be grateful that this split opposition leads to a safe seat for them.
This all leads to a constituency which is 98.6% white and with an older age profile than average with 53% of people being over 45, and the constituency ranking 51st nationally for the percentage of over 65’s. The lack of industry means that it is the constituency with the 3rd highest percentage of people who are self employed
The first of the three main areas of population is south of Exeter along the A38. This territory was taken from the oversized Teignbridge and South Hams seats and includes the small towns of Ashburton, Buckfastleigh and Bovey Tracey. Ashburton has a population of 4000 and was the first place to elect a Monster Raving Loony elected representative when Alan Hope was elected to the town council. Buckfastleigh has a population of 3000 and Bovey Tracey about 5000. These small towns are about half way between Exeter and Plymouth and don’t have much industry – they are commuter bases to Exeter, Plymouth and Torquay.
The second area is along the A30 to the north of Dartmoor. This section came from Devon West and Torridge and includes the town of Okehampton. Okehampton is a small market town on the edge of Dartmoor founded on the wool trade and has a population of 6000.
The third and final section is to the North and North West of Exeter. This area came from the Tiverton and Honiton seat and includes the town of Crediton. Crediton is the largest town in the seat and has a population of 8000, was also founded on the wool trade, and is one of the better sections of the seat for the Liberal Democrats.
When this seat was first formed it had a notional 2005 Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats of 2,338. It seems likely that this seat would have been very close between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 1997 and 2001 had it existed then. Conservative MP Mel Stride has never been in much difficulty here though. He won the inaugural contest in 2010 by 9000 and has won more comfortably since then. In 2019 he achieved a majority of 17,721. One curiosity here is that Labour have achieved second place in 2017 and 2019. In 2017, they achieved 27% of the vote- not bad for Rural Devon. The question is where does this Labour vote come from? Local elections don’t give us much of a clue- the wards in this constituency elected 21 Conservative councillors, 17 Lib Dems, 4 Independents and 2 Greens in 2019. And in the Devon CC elections of 2017, the highest Labour share in a division in this seat was 13% in Okehampton. Certainly there are a lot of public sector workers working in Exeter at Councils, Hospitals and Colleges who live outside of the city boundary in villages in this seat. Labour must also have been competitive in the towns, with their highest vote share likely to have been in Okehampton. It is hard to see Labour challenging in this small town seat though, and the Conservatives will be grateful that this split opposition leads to a safe seat for them.
