Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2020 19:02:49 GMT
I had fun writing this one!
Orkney & Shetland
Orkney and Shetland covers the two eponymous archipelagos – together known as the Northern Isles – that lie to the to north of Scotland’s northern tip. With an electorate of 34,211 at the 2019 general election, it is the second smallest constituency in the UK, only ahead of the other Scottish Island seat, Na h-Eileanan an Iar. Although their shared isolation and small-community, island nature means comparisons are often drawn between the two, the similarity is really only skin-deep and the culture, economy and politics of the two places are as different to each other as they are to the rest of the UK.
Obviously, it is impossible to fit over 8,500 years of history into one of these profiles, but I intend to give it a good go. Although a single charred hazelnut shell might not seem significance, it was just such a find that gave a radiocarbon date 6820-6660 BCE and therefore established the earliest confirmed date of human occupation in Orkney. Shetland’s human activity is considerably more recent, although still ancient with the earliest confirmed date being 4320-4030 BCE. Some of the most incredible and best-preserved archaeological sites in Europe are within this constituency, including the world-famous Neolithic settlement at Skara Brea in Orkney and the weelhouse at Jarlshof in Shetland. This is one area of Scotland that has never a Gaelic population and has never spoken Gaelic as a first language; the original inhabitants are thought to have been Picts, who spoke a Brittonic language related to Welsh, Breton and Cornish rather than a gaelic language related to Irish and Manx. With their proximity to Scandinavia – one former MP once listed Bergen in Norway as his nearest mainline railway station – it is hardly surprising that the areas came under heavy Viking influence. Shetland was colonised by Vikings in the 8th century, and then annexed by Norway in 875 along with Orkney to prevent the Viking raids against the Norwegian coast. The area was under Norwegian rule for nearly 600 years before being given to Scotland as security against the dowry of Margaret, daughter of the king of Norway on her betrothal to James III of Scotland. As the dowry was never paid, the Northern Isles were absorbed by the Kingdom of Scotland in 1472. After the Act of Union, high tariffs led to a decrease in trade with Germany and pushed the area into recession. The Crofters’ Act of 1886 freed local farmers from what had essentially been serfdom and allowed them to own their own farms; this is partly responsible for the relatively high levels of owner-occupation today, especially outside the two major towns. Another major part of the local economy was fishing although it has had its ups and downs as stocks have fluctuated.
Despite being handed over to Scotland over 600 years ago, the islands still retain many traces of their Norwegian past. Many place names in both island groups are of Scandinavian origin. The genetic make-up of modern-day populations also reveal a largely Scandinavian origin for the population. In addition to this, many aspects of the islands’ culture are also Scandinavian in origin, including much of their musical and storytelling tradition. The festival of Up Helly Aa, originally of Viking origin, is still celebrated on Shetland, and the two islands were the last hold out of Norn, a North Germanic language descended from Old Norse and most closely related to modern Icelandic and Faroese. The language is believed to have become extinct in a round 1850 with the death of its last native speaker, although it had been in decline for well over a century before that happened. This stands in stark contrast to the Northern Highlands where much of the Norse cultural influence was subsumed by Scots influences much earlier; and the Hebrides which have always been Gaelic rather than Norse.
The economy of the area is based quite heavily on agriculture and fishing. However, it has diversified recently with tourism and renewable energy research and initiatives bringin much-needed income into the area. Economically, this seat is reasonably average. Owner-occupation is slightly above the national average, for the reasons mentioned above. There is fluctuation over the constituency, with far more social housing and rented housing in Kirkwall and Lerwick than in the rural areas. The proportion of households living rent-free is also significantly higher in the constituency than in Scotland or the UK at large. Professional and managerial occupations are heavily under-represented. Skilled trades, however, are heavily over-represented, partly to do with the renewable energy industry and partly to do with the tourist industry. Average incomes in the seat are almost exactly inline with the UK as a whole, and slightly above the average for Scotland. However, just 58.3% of the labour force works full-time, a full ten points lower than the UK average.
Perhaps unsurprisingly for an isolated, island constituency, 96% of the population were born in the UK. 96% of the population are also white British. It also has a slightly higher proportion than the Scottish average of residents who identify as British only. Education levels are broadly average, although the proportion of people educated to degree level or above lags slightly behind the UK average and 10% behind the Scottish average. Like Scotland as a whole, this constituency voted against both brexit and independence. However, it was slightly more supportive of brexit and much less supportive of independence than Scotland as a whole. The two authorities making up the seat had the first and third highest no votes at the 2014 referendum. Shetland’s remain vote was 56.5% in 2016, which was quite low for Scotland: the islands of Fetlar and Unst together voted 81% leave because of discontent over EU fishing policy.
It has often been said that there is no such thing as a safe LibDem constituency, but this must surely come close. It has been held by Whig, Liberal or Liberal Democrat MPs for all but 25 of the last 213 years, and continuously since 1950. It has had just 3 MPs in those last 70 years, and a change in MP has always coincided with a sizeable drop in the LibDem vote, emphasising the importance of personality politics. 2015 was a close-run thing, and there are some reports that the SNP actually carried Shetland, but that a personal vote in Orkney helped Orkney-based incumbent Alistair Carmichael hold on by 817 votes or 3.6%. This election was was the subject of an election petition, after Carmichael denied all knowledge of leaks which he knew to have been carried out by his Special Adviser. Normal service has sort of resumed since then, although after 2019 Carmichael’s majority sits at just 10.8% on 44.8% of the vote, leaving it in marginal territory; the first election after his retirement is going to be interesting. This Liberal dominance is perhaps best seen as part of the long-standing Highlands liberal tradition (interestingly, common to areas that have a history of Norse cultural influence) that is holding up better here than elsewhere in Northern Scotland.
Identifying areas of strength for each party is not especially easy. Both councils are almost completely dominated by independents, so that offers little clues. The lack of a consistent pattern of opposition support in recent years doesn’t make figuring this out any easier. As mentioned earlier, some believe that Shetland voted SNP in 2015, although that might be more to do with the local bases of each candidate than anything else. That said, this is a seat made up of small communities and small-community politics makes a big difference. It is also worth noting that in the Scottish parliament, Shetland has generally been stronger for the LibDems than Orkney.
Overall, this is a constituency with a phenomenal streak of Liberal representation. Not even the twin shocks of independence and brexit that have caused so much chaos to the political landscape of the UK could upset this pattern, although the LibDem position has weakened. One thing that might do it, however, is the retirement of the incumbent MP. Although Carmichael looks safe for as long as he wants the seat, it is doubtful that the LibDems can bank on it permanently after his retirement.
Orkney & Shetland
Orkney and Shetland covers the two eponymous archipelagos – together known as the Northern Isles – that lie to the to north of Scotland’s northern tip. With an electorate of 34,211 at the 2019 general election, it is the second smallest constituency in the UK, only ahead of the other Scottish Island seat, Na h-Eileanan an Iar. Although their shared isolation and small-community, island nature means comparisons are often drawn between the two, the similarity is really only skin-deep and the culture, economy and politics of the two places are as different to each other as they are to the rest of the UK.
Obviously, it is impossible to fit over 8,500 years of history into one of these profiles, but I intend to give it a good go. Although a single charred hazelnut shell might not seem significance, it was just such a find that gave a radiocarbon date 6820-6660 BCE and therefore established the earliest confirmed date of human occupation in Orkney. Shetland’s human activity is considerably more recent, although still ancient with the earliest confirmed date being 4320-4030 BCE. Some of the most incredible and best-preserved archaeological sites in Europe are within this constituency, including the world-famous Neolithic settlement at Skara Brea in Orkney and the weelhouse at Jarlshof in Shetland. This is one area of Scotland that has never a Gaelic population and has never spoken Gaelic as a first language; the original inhabitants are thought to have been Picts, who spoke a Brittonic language related to Welsh, Breton and Cornish rather than a gaelic language related to Irish and Manx. With their proximity to Scandinavia – one former MP once listed Bergen in Norway as his nearest mainline railway station – it is hardly surprising that the areas came under heavy Viking influence. Shetland was colonised by Vikings in the 8th century, and then annexed by Norway in 875 along with Orkney to prevent the Viking raids against the Norwegian coast. The area was under Norwegian rule for nearly 600 years before being given to Scotland as security against the dowry of Margaret, daughter of the king of Norway on her betrothal to James III of Scotland. As the dowry was never paid, the Northern Isles were absorbed by the Kingdom of Scotland in 1472. After the Act of Union, high tariffs led to a decrease in trade with Germany and pushed the area into recession. The Crofters’ Act of 1886 freed local farmers from what had essentially been serfdom and allowed them to own their own farms; this is partly responsible for the relatively high levels of owner-occupation today, especially outside the two major towns. Another major part of the local economy was fishing although it has had its ups and downs as stocks have fluctuated.
Despite being handed over to Scotland over 600 years ago, the islands still retain many traces of their Norwegian past. Many place names in both island groups are of Scandinavian origin. The genetic make-up of modern-day populations also reveal a largely Scandinavian origin for the population. In addition to this, many aspects of the islands’ culture are also Scandinavian in origin, including much of their musical and storytelling tradition. The festival of Up Helly Aa, originally of Viking origin, is still celebrated on Shetland, and the two islands were the last hold out of Norn, a North Germanic language descended from Old Norse and most closely related to modern Icelandic and Faroese. The language is believed to have become extinct in a round 1850 with the death of its last native speaker, although it had been in decline for well over a century before that happened. This stands in stark contrast to the Northern Highlands where much of the Norse cultural influence was subsumed by Scots influences much earlier; and the Hebrides which have always been Gaelic rather than Norse.
The economy of the area is based quite heavily on agriculture and fishing. However, it has diversified recently with tourism and renewable energy research and initiatives bringin much-needed income into the area. Economically, this seat is reasonably average. Owner-occupation is slightly above the national average, for the reasons mentioned above. There is fluctuation over the constituency, with far more social housing and rented housing in Kirkwall and Lerwick than in the rural areas. The proportion of households living rent-free is also significantly higher in the constituency than in Scotland or the UK at large. Professional and managerial occupations are heavily under-represented. Skilled trades, however, are heavily over-represented, partly to do with the renewable energy industry and partly to do with the tourist industry. Average incomes in the seat are almost exactly inline with the UK as a whole, and slightly above the average for Scotland. However, just 58.3% of the labour force works full-time, a full ten points lower than the UK average.
Perhaps unsurprisingly for an isolated, island constituency, 96% of the population were born in the UK. 96% of the population are also white British. It also has a slightly higher proportion than the Scottish average of residents who identify as British only. Education levels are broadly average, although the proportion of people educated to degree level or above lags slightly behind the UK average and 10% behind the Scottish average. Like Scotland as a whole, this constituency voted against both brexit and independence. However, it was slightly more supportive of brexit and much less supportive of independence than Scotland as a whole. The two authorities making up the seat had the first and third highest no votes at the 2014 referendum. Shetland’s remain vote was 56.5% in 2016, which was quite low for Scotland: the islands of Fetlar and Unst together voted 81% leave because of discontent over EU fishing policy.
It has often been said that there is no such thing as a safe LibDem constituency, but this must surely come close. It has been held by Whig, Liberal or Liberal Democrat MPs for all but 25 of the last 213 years, and continuously since 1950. It has had just 3 MPs in those last 70 years, and a change in MP has always coincided with a sizeable drop in the LibDem vote, emphasising the importance of personality politics. 2015 was a close-run thing, and there are some reports that the SNP actually carried Shetland, but that a personal vote in Orkney helped Orkney-based incumbent Alistair Carmichael hold on by 817 votes or 3.6%. This election was was the subject of an election petition, after Carmichael denied all knowledge of leaks which he knew to have been carried out by his Special Adviser. Normal service has sort of resumed since then, although after 2019 Carmichael’s majority sits at just 10.8% on 44.8% of the vote, leaving it in marginal territory; the first election after his retirement is going to be interesting. This Liberal dominance is perhaps best seen as part of the long-standing Highlands liberal tradition (interestingly, common to areas that have a history of Norse cultural influence) that is holding up better here than elsewhere in Northern Scotland.
Identifying areas of strength for each party is not especially easy. Both councils are almost completely dominated by independents, so that offers little clues. The lack of a consistent pattern of opposition support in recent years doesn’t make figuring this out any easier. As mentioned earlier, some believe that Shetland voted SNP in 2015, although that might be more to do with the local bases of each candidate than anything else. That said, this is a seat made up of small communities and small-community politics makes a big difference. It is also worth noting that in the Scottish parliament, Shetland has generally been stronger for the LibDems than Orkney.
Overall, this is a constituency with a phenomenal streak of Liberal representation. Not even the twin shocks of independence and brexit that have caused so much chaos to the political landscape of the UK could upset this pattern, although the LibDem position has weakened. One thing that might do it, however, is the retirement of the incumbent MP. Although Carmichael looks safe for as long as he wants the seat, it is doubtful that the LibDems can bank on it permanently after his retirement.
