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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 30, 2020 6:27:33 GMT
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Post by afleitch on Jul 30, 2020 18:52:10 GMT
More
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jul 31, 2020 11:08:15 GMT
As a matter of interest, where do the ward boundary details in the maps come from? Two or three weeks ago, I was trying to make out whether certain ward boundaries in Barnet (specifically, those between Friern Barnet ward and Brunswick Park and East Barnet wards) had changed from the old Hertfordshire/Middlesex boundary to following the Kings Cross railway line in the 1966 ward boundary review or the 1977 one, and couldn't find any evidence one way or the other.
(In Barnet as a whole, the 1966 review completely redrew the entire ward map, while the 1977 review seems to have made only fairly minor changes to ward boundaries, otherwise keeping the "same" 20 wards as 1966 - but I have a nagging memory from what I think was the early 1980s of some just possibly still current or relatively recently obsolete documentation [canvass cards? old Labour Party ward membership lists?] for Brunswick Park ward which contained a very small number of households in side streets to the west of the railway. Of course, in the case of both ward reviews, the constituency boundaries only caught up in the next constituency reviews). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2020 19:06:29 GMT
As a matter of interest, where do the ward boundary details in the maps come from? Two or three weeks ago, I was trying to make out whether certain ward boundaries in Barnet (specifically, those between Friern Barnet ward and Brunswick Park and East Barnet wards) had changed from the old Hertfordshire/Middlesex boundary to following the Kings Cross railway line in the 1966 ward boundary review or the 1977 one, and couldn't find any evidence one way or the other. (In Barnet as a whole, the 1966 review completely redrew the entire ward map, while the 1977 review seems to have made only fairly minor changes to ward boundaries, otherwise keeping the "same" 20 wards as 1966 - but I have a nagging memory from what I think was the early 1980s of some just possibly still current or relatively recently obsolete documentation [canvass cards? old Labour Party ward membership lists?] for Brunswick Park ward which contained a very small number of households in side streets to the west of the railway. Of course, in the case of both ward reviews, the constituency boundaries only caught up in the next constituency reviews). I've used Adam Gray's book mainly but also the mapping data from borders.ukdataservice.ac.uk/bds.html - not sure if this link opens for others Neither are wholly accurate I think - the borders site seems to put boundaries all over the place but it's a pretty good guide and the post 1978 boundaries in Barnet do seem to be near enough identical to the 1968 ones (they were very different prior to that of course) but I'm sure there must have been a fair bit of tinkering here and there. Barnet was the only borough besides Kensington & Chelsea where I basically didn't edit my base map of the post 1978 (1982 in Enfield) wards and Kenisngton & Chelsea pre-empted the rest of London by having new ward boundaries in 1974 which then lasted up until 2002 (strictly speaking I should have used the previous boundaries for K&C as they were the actual wards which were used in the parliamentary boundary review, but since this only involved splitting a number of the large Kensington wards in two it provides a bit more detail at no cost) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 4, 2020 22:03:24 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 8, 2020 8:40:58 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 8, 2020 20:02:22 GMT
I've reached a fork in the road in this thread. Having created these maps (and connected spreadsheets) and desiring to post them here, I decided on a new thread rather than adding to any of the many existing threads on notional results but the title of the thread was very much an afterthought. Logically, the next set of maps in the sequence would be the 1983 maps for London but that would be inconsistent with the thread title. However the title can be changed easily enough.
Alternatively I could stay with the 1970s theme and and post maps of other counties which I have already done (principally in the Northern Home counties). I do already have maps of London from 1983 onwards but these were done many years ago and I am minded to redo those in the light of improved methodology and data (and on the basis that the greater pleasure to be derived from this exercise is in creating the maps and spreadsheets rather than in having them). Perhaps I will add a poll to gauge opinion - for various reasons (busy in 'real life') it would likely be a little while anyway before I post anything else on this thread.
Meanwhile I wonder if it might be worthwhile to create a new sub-board for notional results. There are one or two other regulars as well as me who post various notional results and it would be good to have all of these in one place. At the moment they appear to be scattered around all manner of different threads and sub-boards
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 8, 2020 20:18:23 GMT
I've reached a fork in the road in this thread. Having created these maps (and connected spreadsheets) and desiring to post them here, I decided on a new thread rather than adding to any of the many existing threads on notional results but the title of the thread was very much an afterthought. Logically, the next set of maps in the sequence would be the 1983 maps for London but that would be inconsistent with the thread title. However the title can be changed easily enough. Alternatively I could stay with the 1970s theme and and post maps of other counties which I have already done (principally in the Northern Home counties). I do already have maps of London from 1983 onwards but these were done many years ago and I am minded to redo those in the light of improved methodology and data (and on the basis that the greater pleasure to be derived from this exercise is in creating the maps and spreadsheets rather than in having them). Perhaps I will add a poll to gauge opinion - for various reasons (busy in 'real life') it would likely be a little while anyway before I post anything else on this thread. Meanwhile I wonder if it might be worthwhile to create a new sub-board for notional results. There are one or two other regulars as well as me who post various notional results and it would be good to have all of these in one place. At the moment they appear to be scattered around all manner of different threads and sub-boards The creation of a new sub-board would be a good idea in my view. Notional results are an interesting field (and will become even more important when we eventually have the boundary changes), and having them all in one place would be handy. AdminSTB has the ultimate power to decide either way (since only he can create new sub-boards), but personally I'd be happy to see a dedicated area for them. My only concern would be if there's enough content for a notional results sub-forum. Re this thread, it's up to you. I'd personally like to see it continued forward in time rather than into the rest of the Home Counties, mostly because I think putting the 1974-2019 maps into a gif would be fascinating to see. Though if you include Oxfordshire in your definition of Northern Home Counties, I might be tempted to look at that (specifically to see notionals for Oxford city when it voted Conservative). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 8, 2020 20:50:31 GMT
I've reached a fork in the road in this thread. Having created these maps (and connected spreadsheets) and desiring to post them here, I decided on a new thread rather than adding to any of the many existing threads on notional results but the title of the thread was very much an afterthought. Logically, the next set of maps in the sequence would be the 1983 maps for London but that would be inconsistent with the thread title. However the title can be changed easily enough. Alternatively I could stay with the 1970s theme and and post maps of other counties which I have already done (principally in the Northern Home counties). I do already have maps of London from 1983 onwards but these were done many years ago and I am minded to redo those in the light of improved methodology and data (and on the basis that the greater pleasure to be derived from this exercise is in creating the maps and spreadsheets rather than in having them). Perhaps I will add a poll to gauge opinion - for various reasons (busy in 'real life') it would likely be a little while anyway before I post anything else on this thread. Meanwhile I wonder if it might be worthwhile to create a new sub-board for notional results. There are one or two other regulars as well as me who post various notional results and it would be good to have all of these in one place. At the moment they appear to be scattered around all manner of different threads and sub-boards The creation of a new sub-board would be a good idea in my view. Notional results are an interesting field (and will become even more important when we eventually have the boundary changes), and having them all in one place would be handy. AdminSTB has the ultimate power to decide either way (since only he can create new sub-boards), but personally I'd be happy to see a dedicated area for them. My only concern would be if there's enough content for a notional results sub-forum. Re this thread, it's up to you. I'd personally like to see it continued forward in time rather than into the rest of the Home Counties, mostly because I think putting the 1974-2019 maps into a gif would be fascinating to see. This sort of thing you mean?  Well Oxfordshire would still be done (has been done, in fact) but would just appear on a different thread. I'm increasingly of the view that this should continue forward with London results with different threads for other areas |
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 8, 2020 20:56:37 GMT
The creation of a new sub-board would be a good idea in my view. Notional results are an interesting field (and will become even more important when we eventually have the boundary changes), and having them all in one place would be handy. AdminSTB has the ultimate power to decide either way (since only he can create new sub-boards), but personally I'd be happy to see a dedicated area for them. My only concern would be if there's enough content for a notional results sub-forum. Re this thread, it's up to you. I'd personally like to see it continued forward in time rather than into the rest of the Home Counties, mostly because I think putting the 1974-2019 maps into a gif would be fascinating to see. This sort of thing you mean? Well Oxfordshire would still be done (has been done, in fact) but would just appear on a different thread. I'm increasingly of the view that this should continue forward with London results with different threads for other areas Yes, exactly that sort of thing - I was imagining it showing the winning party by ward over time but vote share is also interesting! As for this thread - it probably does make sense to continue it as a London thread. Realistically you'd either organise the maps by election or by county, and this thread has already featured three different elections so it makes sense to keep going through time. But either way, keep up the great work - looking forward to 1983 when you get round to it! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 1, 2020 19:12:32 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 3, 2020 18:38:17 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 10, 2020 20:01:25 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 29, 2020 18:46:07 GMT
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Post by jacoblamsden on Sept 29, 2020 19:56:42 GMT
I know it is very difficult to speculate but do you reckon there were any wards where the Conservatives did better in London in 1997 compared to 2019?
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Post by johnloony on Sept 29, 2020 20:29:12 GMT
I know it is very difficult to speculate but do you reckon there were any wards where the Conservatives did better in London in 1997 compared to 2019? There must have been quite a few. For example, Croydon Central had a Labour majority of 4K in 1997 and 6k in 2019. Within Croydon Central constituency, New Addington was much more Conservative in 2019 than in 1997, but the wards in Shirley must have been conversely much more Labour. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 29, 2020 20:35:47 GMT
I know it is very difficult to speculate but do you reckon there were any wards where the Conservatives did better in London in 1997 compared to 2019? There were loads. Many seats like Southgate and Chingford were better then than now and the Conservatives still had a robust vote in places like Dulwich and the Lewishams compared to now. Not to mention the strange case of Bethnal Green & Bow |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 29, 2020 22:03:58 GMT
I know it is very difficult to speculate but do you reckon there were any wards where the Conservatives did better in London in 1997 compared to 2019? Given the relative size of the Lib Dem majorities between 1997 and 2019 (e.g. only 56 in Kingston in 1997) probably the south west boroughs? City of London and Westminster, Chingford too? |
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 2, 2020 18:40:35 GMT
I know it is very difficult to speculate but do you reckon there were any wards where the Conservatives did better in London in 1997 compared to 2019? Brent North which had a Labour majority of 4k in 1997 and is now an 8k Labour majority would also be another example. The Conservative vote in Hornsey & Wood Green was over 11k in 1997 and was 6,800 in 2019. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 2, 2020 19:43:28 GMT
I know it is very difficult to speculate but do you reckon there were any wards where the Conservatives did better in London in 1997 compared to 2019? which had a Labour majority of 4k in 1997 and is now an 8k Labour majority would also be another example. The Conservative vote in Hornsey & Wood Green was over 11k in 1997 and was 6,800 in 2019. That's not such a good example as most (if not all) of that increased majority is due to the areas added from Brent South in 2010 (Alperton, Wembley Central etc). It's hard to reconstruct the old Brent North due to major ward boundary changes in the area (and obviously difficult to compare wards directly for the same reason), but it looks to me that the Conservatives actually improved in the area a bit in 2019 relative to 1997 |
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