Post by European Lefty on Jul 24, 2020 17:26:08 GMT
Leicester South
Leicester South covers the southern areas and city centre of Leicester, stretching from the centre down through Southfields to Knighton in the south east and Aylestone in the south west. It also takes in the main campuses of both of Leicester’s universities.
Leicester goes back to at least the Iron Age, making it one of the UK’s oldest settlements. It has survived through time as a roman town and tribal capital; a Bishopric under the Saxons; a major regional town throughout the middle ages, Tudor period and the civil war; a major industrial centre from the industrial revolution to the 1980s; and finally as a city and a major regional centre to the present day. Its biggest explosion in size took place during and after the industrial revolution, as canals and railways connected the city to both the Leicestershire coalfields and the cities of London and Birmingham. Numerous mills and factories sprang up, at first involved in hosiery, textiles and shoe manufacture but later involved in engineering, as well as a steelworks. In 1936, the League of Nation’s Bureau of Statistics identified Leicester as the second richest city in Europe. Much of this industry remains, however it has almost entirely disappeared from the parts of the city covered by this seat.
Leicester’s politics also has a radical history, and the city was a stronghold of radicalism in the mid-nineteenth century. Leading Chartist Thomas Cooper had a shop in the town and the Chartists started two riots within six years in the 1840s. In 1936, Leicester would play host the Jarrow March on its way to London. Furthermore, the Leicester Secular Society was founded in 1851, making it the world’s oldest such society. Since the end of the second world war, mass house building of both council and privately-owned housing estates, and large-scale immigration have had their impact on Leicester, and especially on its politics, as will be seen later on.
Leicester South is the 109th most deprived of England’s 533 constituencies, and the second most deprived in Leicestershire, beaten only by its neighbour Leicester West. Despite this, it actually contains the most upmarket area of Leicester, the suburb of Knighton at its south eastern edge. Although it has deceptively few LSOAs in the most deprived decile in England, most of them are in the poorest 30%. Average incomes are quite low in this seat, over £100 per week behind the national average and nearly £65 per week behind the regional average. Elementary and routine occupations are slightly, although not massively, over-represented in the labour market and proportions in the other categories are fairly average. Most industries are roughly inline with the national average in terms of the percentage of local jobs in those industries. The exceptions are manufacturing, which is less than half its average, demonstrating just how much the area’s industry has declined since its heyday; and education at 15.3% compared to 8.9% nationally, mostly because of the two universities. Unsurprisingly for a student-heavy seat, the proportion of owner-occupied households is well below the national average, at just 46.2%. Social and private renting are both significantly above average; in fact 55.5% of households in the pre-2015 city-centre Castle ward were privately rented. The next highest is neighbouring Stoneygate ward, at 31.5%. The southern and more middle-class wards of Knighton and Aylestone are 73.7% and 67.1% owner-occupied respectively. Social renting is highest in Eyres Monsell at the southern boundary, at 43%, and Freemen to its north (now largely replaced by Saffron ward) at 38.8%.
Many educational statistics are inline with or better than the national average; the only exception is that the proportion with no qualifications stands at 14.6% compared to 7.7% nationally. It is also a relatively diverse seat, although not to the extent of Leicester East. The seat is 49.2% white and 37.4% Asian, although there is massive variation within the seat. On current boundaries, five of eight wards are majority white, with that figure reaching 88.09% in Aylestone and 87.95% in Eyres Monsell. Closer to the city centre, however, Stoneygate is 25.6% white and 59.1% Asian; Wycliffe is 7.2% white and 70.2% Asian; and Spinney Hills is 7% white and 82.6% Asian. Furthermore, just 66% of people in the seat were born in the UK compared to 87% nationally.
As a deprived, student heavy seat with a large minority population and a lot of people working in education, this looks like the archetype of a safe Labour seat. Today, it is, and Labour’s majority 45.2% on a 67% vote share makes it the safest Labour seat in Leicester, and in the whole of the East Midlands. However, it hasn’t always been like that, and has in fact been represented by all three major parties since its creation in 1974. It’s first election was a narrow Conservative win in February 1974, before being gained by Labour at the general election in October that year. The Conservatives won it back in 1983, only to lose it again in 1987. From just 3.4% that year, the Labour majority climbed to 17.7% in 1992 and 34.3% in 1997, and it was starting to look like a safe Labour seat. However, at the 2004 by-election held under the shadow of the Iraq war, the LibDems came from third to take the seat, and although they lost it again in 2005, they held Labour’s majority below 10%. However, Labour increased their majority at every election between then and 2017, and with only a small swing against them, it is once again a safe Labour seat.
With such frequent high majorities – over 30% on all but two occasions since 1997 – it is almost certain that Labour carry every ward at general elections. However, the reasonably well-off suburban ward of Knighton has always provided a pool of Conservative strength. As of the 2019 local elections, Aylestone ward in the south east of the seat is represented by the only non-Labour councillor on Leicester City Council, a solitary LibDem in a two-seat ward. These wards still provide a stronger Conservative vote than other parts of the seat, and will have been carried by the LibDems in their 2004 by-election victory.
Overall, this is a historically marginal seat that became safe for Labour in 1997 and never looked back (2004 notwithstanding). As a student-heavy seat, it is an area that was less hostile to Corbynism than much of the country, and when its ethnic minority population and relative deprivation are added to that, it starts to look untouchable. Despite its history, this must be considered a seat that Labour are highly unlikely ever to lose.
Leicester South covers the southern areas and city centre of Leicester, stretching from the centre down through Southfields to Knighton in the south east and Aylestone in the south west. It also takes in the main campuses of both of Leicester’s universities.
Leicester goes back to at least the Iron Age, making it one of the UK’s oldest settlements. It has survived through time as a roman town and tribal capital; a Bishopric under the Saxons; a major regional town throughout the middle ages, Tudor period and the civil war; a major industrial centre from the industrial revolution to the 1980s; and finally as a city and a major regional centre to the present day. Its biggest explosion in size took place during and after the industrial revolution, as canals and railways connected the city to both the Leicestershire coalfields and the cities of London and Birmingham. Numerous mills and factories sprang up, at first involved in hosiery, textiles and shoe manufacture but later involved in engineering, as well as a steelworks. In 1936, the League of Nation’s Bureau of Statistics identified Leicester as the second richest city in Europe. Much of this industry remains, however it has almost entirely disappeared from the parts of the city covered by this seat.
Leicester’s politics also has a radical history, and the city was a stronghold of radicalism in the mid-nineteenth century. Leading Chartist Thomas Cooper had a shop in the town and the Chartists started two riots within six years in the 1840s. In 1936, Leicester would play host the Jarrow March on its way to London. Furthermore, the Leicester Secular Society was founded in 1851, making it the world’s oldest such society. Since the end of the second world war, mass house building of both council and privately-owned housing estates, and large-scale immigration have had their impact on Leicester, and especially on its politics, as will be seen later on.
Leicester South is the 109th most deprived of England’s 533 constituencies, and the second most deprived in Leicestershire, beaten only by its neighbour Leicester West. Despite this, it actually contains the most upmarket area of Leicester, the suburb of Knighton at its south eastern edge. Although it has deceptively few LSOAs in the most deprived decile in England, most of them are in the poorest 30%. Average incomes are quite low in this seat, over £100 per week behind the national average and nearly £65 per week behind the regional average. Elementary and routine occupations are slightly, although not massively, over-represented in the labour market and proportions in the other categories are fairly average. Most industries are roughly inline with the national average in terms of the percentage of local jobs in those industries. The exceptions are manufacturing, which is less than half its average, demonstrating just how much the area’s industry has declined since its heyday; and education at 15.3% compared to 8.9% nationally, mostly because of the two universities. Unsurprisingly for a student-heavy seat, the proportion of owner-occupied households is well below the national average, at just 46.2%. Social and private renting are both significantly above average; in fact 55.5% of households in the pre-2015 city-centre Castle ward were privately rented. The next highest is neighbouring Stoneygate ward, at 31.5%. The southern and more middle-class wards of Knighton and Aylestone are 73.7% and 67.1% owner-occupied respectively. Social renting is highest in Eyres Monsell at the southern boundary, at 43%, and Freemen to its north (now largely replaced by Saffron ward) at 38.8%.
Many educational statistics are inline with or better than the national average; the only exception is that the proportion with no qualifications stands at 14.6% compared to 7.7% nationally. It is also a relatively diverse seat, although not to the extent of Leicester East. The seat is 49.2% white and 37.4% Asian, although there is massive variation within the seat. On current boundaries, five of eight wards are majority white, with that figure reaching 88.09% in Aylestone and 87.95% in Eyres Monsell. Closer to the city centre, however, Stoneygate is 25.6% white and 59.1% Asian; Wycliffe is 7.2% white and 70.2% Asian; and Spinney Hills is 7% white and 82.6% Asian. Furthermore, just 66% of people in the seat were born in the UK compared to 87% nationally.
As a deprived, student heavy seat with a large minority population and a lot of people working in education, this looks like the archetype of a safe Labour seat. Today, it is, and Labour’s majority 45.2% on a 67% vote share makes it the safest Labour seat in Leicester, and in the whole of the East Midlands. However, it hasn’t always been like that, and has in fact been represented by all three major parties since its creation in 1974. It’s first election was a narrow Conservative win in February 1974, before being gained by Labour at the general election in October that year. The Conservatives won it back in 1983, only to lose it again in 1987. From just 3.4% that year, the Labour majority climbed to 17.7% in 1992 and 34.3% in 1997, and it was starting to look like a safe Labour seat. However, at the 2004 by-election held under the shadow of the Iraq war, the LibDems came from third to take the seat, and although they lost it again in 2005, they held Labour’s majority below 10%. However, Labour increased their majority at every election between then and 2017, and with only a small swing against them, it is once again a safe Labour seat.
With such frequent high majorities – over 30% on all but two occasions since 1997 – it is almost certain that Labour carry every ward at general elections. However, the reasonably well-off suburban ward of Knighton has always provided a pool of Conservative strength. As of the 2019 local elections, Aylestone ward in the south east of the seat is represented by the only non-Labour councillor on Leicester City Council, a solitary LibDem in a two-seat ward. These wards still provide a stronger Conservative vote than other parts of the seat, and will have been carried by the LibDems in their 2004 by-election victory.
Overall, this is a historically marginal seat that became safe for Labour in 1997 and never looked back (2004 notwithstanding). As a student-heavy seat, it is an area that was less hostile to Corbynism than much of the country, and when its ethnic minority population and relative deprivation are added to that, it starts to look untouchable. Despite its history, this must be considered a seat that Labour are highly unlikely ever to lose.
