Post by European Lefty on Jul 20, 2020 22:30:55 GMT
Having done the other Northampton seat, I figured I'd do this one as well as I already had the research.
Northampton North
Northampton north covers the section of the town and borough of Northampton north east of the town centre. It takes in the communities of Kingsthorpe and Sunnyside at its western edge, Abington in the south, Parklands in the middle of the seat and Southfields and Lumbertubs out to the east.
Northampton’s history goes back to the tenth century, with the first written record of the town being in 914 has Ham Tune or “Home Town”. The north was added later to distinguish it from other places called Hampton. As Northampton’s medieval town deteriorated, so did its royal connections, during the civil war it was decidedly pro-parliament. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, Northampton became a major centre of footwear and leather manufacture, an industry which rapidly exploded thanks to the demand for boots for the Napoleonic war. It was connected to the midlands coalfields as well as Birmingham Manchester and London by the arrival of the grand union canal, and the railway came in 1845, with a branch line to Peterborough. There were several iron ore quarries in the surrounding area in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, although most have now disappeared. The shoemaking industry also declined after the first world war, and now the industry is almost gone from the town.
Northampton North is the 185th most deprived constituency in England and the second most deprived in Northamptonshire, behind only its southern (and western and eastern) neighbour Northampton South. There is some variation, with the outer areas to the north being far less deprived than the areas closer to the town centre. Pockets of low deprivation also exist in Phippsville and Westone. It has a very working-class labour market profile, with the proportion of those in major group 8-9 (elementary and manual jobs) almost double the national average at 30.9% compared to 16.3%. Incomes in the constituency are significantly below average for the nation, although slightly above average for the East Midlands region. Manufacturing is still well above average in this seat, largely still in the shoemaking industry. Human health and social work is slightly under-represented although education is slightly over-represented in employment statistics. Most housing tenure statistics are close to average, with owner-occupation very slightly over-represented and social and private renting both slightly under-represented. Again, there is variation across the constituency. The highest rates of owner-occupation are in Boothville, Spring Park and Parklands wards at 91.2%, 89% and 87.9% respectively, all wards on the northern boundary of the seat. Social renting ranges from 39.3% in St David’s, 35.3% in Brookside and 31.1% in Talavera, wards spread throughout the seat but with lots of housing built as inter-war council estates, to 0.8%, 3.7% and 2.5% in the previously mentioned suburban wards. Abington and Trinity, both close to the town centre, are both over 30% private rented while Boothville and Spring Park on the edge as well as Headlands in the town centre are all under 10%.
The constituency is 85% UK-born, broadly in line with the national average, and 85.17% white. Significant ethnic minority populations exist in the central ward of Semilong, and the deprived and largely socially-rented ward of Brookside out to the east. Both the percentage of people with degrees and people with no qualifications are below the national average, although the percentage of people with “other qualifications”, which includes foreign and some professional qualifications is significantly higher.
So, with housing statistics close to the national average and a labour-favouring working-class profile and low average income juxtaposing pro-Tory low education statistics and ethnic minority population, it’s no surprise that this seat is a bellwether of the national result. It was Labour in both 1974 elections by very narrow margins, was taken by the Tories in 1983, regained by Labour in 1997 and retaken by the Conservatives in 2010. It nearly fell in 2017, with Conservative Michael Ellis hanging on by just 807 votes or 2%. In 2019, the swing against Labour was below the national average, and the Tory majority stands at just 13.9%, making it a better future prospect for Labour than seats like Bassetlaw and Mansfield. Its former MPs have included Britain’s first ever openly lesbian MP, Maureen Culquhoun, and its predecessor seat of Northampton was represented by Margaret Bondfield, one of the first three women to be elected as a Labour MP, and Spencer Perceval, the only British prime minister ever to have been assassinated in office.
In terms of the political geography, the town centre areas and the council estate-heavy wards to the east favour Labour, while areas farther from the town centre favour the Conservatives. The high deprivation and high rates of renting tilt areas like Semilong, Kingsley, Eastfield and Talavera in Labour’s favour, while high owner-occupation rates help the Tories in outer areas. Abington and Phippsville, between the town centre and the eastern edge, have characteristics favourable for both parties and are the closest thing the seat has to a bellwether area.
This is a classic bellwether seat that still mirrors the national results reasonably closely. Next time the Labour Party win a majority, this seat is almost certain to be part of it. Boundary changes, however, will be crucial. Both Northampton seats are undersized, and the borough is entitled to exactly two. If the seat expands west to take in the northern suburbs of King’s Heath and Duston, the political implications will be fairly neutral. If it expands southwards to take in areas around the town centre, it will help Labour massively in this seat while knocking them out of contention in Northampton South. If the seats are changed to an east-west divide, both would probably become right-leaning marginals. Whatever happens, this seat, and this town, have both had an interesting political past and look set for an interesting political future.
Northampton North
Northampton north covers the section of the town and borough of Northampton north east of the town centre. It takes in the communities of Kingsthorpe and Sunnyside at its western edge, Abington in the south, Parklands in the middle of the seat and Southfields and Lumbertubs out to the east.
Northampton’s history goes back to the tenth century, with the first written record of the town being in 914 has Ham Tune or “Home Town”. The north was added later to distinguish it from other places called Hampton. As Northampton’s medieval town deteriorated, so did its royal connections, during the civil war it was decidedly pro-parliament. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, Northampton became a major centre of footwear and leather manufacture, an industry which rapidly exploded thanks to the demand for boots for the Napoleonic war. It was connected to the midlands coalfields as well as Birmingham Manchester and London by the arrival of the grand union canal, and the railway came in 1845, with a branch line to Peterborough. There were several iron ore quarries in the surrounding area in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, although most have now disappeared. The shoemaking industry also declined after the first world war, and now the industry is almost gone from the town.
Northampton North is the 185th most deprived constituency in England and the second most deprived in Northamptonshire, behind only its southern (and western and eastern) neighbour Northampton South. There is some variation, with the outer areas to the north being far less deprived than the areas closer to the town centre. Pockets of low deprivation also exist in Phippsville and Westone. It has a very working-class labour market profile, with the proportion of those in major group 8-9 (elementary and manual jobs) almost double the national average at 30.9% compared to 16.3%. Incomes in the constituency are significantly below average for the nation, although slightly above average for the East Midlands region. Manufacturing is still well above average in this seat, largely still in the shoemaking industry. Human health and social work is slightly under-represented although education is slightly over-represented in employment statistics. Most housing tenure statistics are close to average, with owner-occupation very slightly over-represented and social and private renting both slightly under-represented. Again, there is variation across the constituency. The highest rates of owner-occupation are in Boothville, Spring Park and Parklands wards at 91.2%, 89% and 87.9% respectively, all wards on the northern boundary of the seat. Social renting ranges from 39.3% in St David’s, 35.3% in Brookside and 31.1% in Talavera, wards spread throughout the seat but with lots of housing built as inter-war council estates, to 0.8%, 3.7% and 2.5% in the previously mentioned suburban wards. Abington and Trinity, both close to the town centre, are both over 30% private rented while Boothville and Spring Park on the edge as well as Headlands in the town centre are all under 10%.
The constituency is 85% UK-born, broadly in line with the national average, and 85.17% white. Significant ethnic minority populations exist in the central ward of Semilong, and the deprived and largely socially-rented ward of Brookside out to the east. Both the percentage of people with degrees and people with no qualifications are below the national average, although the percentage of people with “other qualifications”, which includes foreign and some professional qualifications is significantly higher.
So, with housing statistics close to the national average and a labour-favouring working-class profile and low average income juxtaposing pro-Tory low education statistics and ethnic minority population, it’s no surprise that this seat is a bellwether of the national result. It was Labour in both 1974 elections by very narrow margins, was taken by the Tories in 1983, regained by Labour in 1997 and retaken by the Conservatives in 2010. It nearly fell in 2017, with Conservative Michael Ellis hanging on by just 807 votes or 2%. In 2019, the swing against Labour was below the national average, and the Tory majority stands at just 13.9%, making it a better future prospect for Labour than seats like Bassetlaw and Mansfield. Its former MPs have included Britain’s first ever openly lesbian MP, Maureen Culquhoun, and its predecessor seat of Northampton was represented by Margaret Bondfield, one of the first three women to be elected as a Labour MP, and Spencer Perceval, the only British prime minister ever to have been assassinated in office.
In terms of the political geography, the town centre areas and the council estate-heavy wards to the east favour Labour, while areas farther from the town centre favour the Conservatives. The high deprivation and high rates of renting tilt areas like Semilong, Kingsley, Eastfield and Talavera in Labour’s favour, while high owner-occupation rates help the Tories in outer areas. Abington and Phippsville, between the town centre and the eastern edge, have characteristics favourable for both parties and are the closest thing the seat has to a bellwether area.
This is a classic bellwether seat that still mirrors the national results reasonably closely. Next time the Labour Party win a majority, this seat is almost certain to be part of it. Boundary changes, however, will be crucial. Both Northampton seats are undersized, and the borough is entitled to exactly two. If the seat expands west to take in the northern suburbs of King’s Heath and Duston, the political implications will be fairly neutral. If it expands southwards to take in areas around the town centre, it will help Labour massively in this seat while knocking them out of contention in Northampton South. If the seats are changed to an east-west divide, both would probably become right-leaning marginals. Whatever happens, this seat, and this town, have both had an interesting political past and look set for an interesting political future.
