Post by European Lefty on Jul 20, 2020 12:22:55 GMT
It's been noted that Northamptonshire is a black hole as far as this is concerned, so just to start us off there:
Northampton South
Northampton South covers the southern part of the town of Northampton in absolutely no sense whatsoever. Confused? You will be. As it is the more southerly of the two seats contained wholly within the borough, the name would be forgivable, were it not for the fact that its borders touch the northern boundary of Northampton but not the southern one at any point, with the most southern part of the town being contained in the South Northamptonshire constituency. From the town centre and the station, the seat bows out to the south to cover the communities of Briar Hill and Far Cotton; runs out to the east to cover the middle-class area of Abington Vale and the far more deprived area of Billing; and runs north-north west along the Harlestone Road (the A428) to Old and New Duston on its west side ad King’s Heath on its east.
Northampton’s history goes back to the tenth century, with the first written record of the town being in 914 has Ham Tune or “Home Town”. The north was added later to distinguish it from other places called Hampton. As Northampton’s medieval town deteriorated, so did its royal connections, during the civil war it was decidedly pro-parliament. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, Northampton became a major centre of footwear and leather manufacture, an industry which rapidly exploded thanks to the demand for boots for the Napoleonic war. It was connected to the midlands coalfields as well as Birmingham Manchester and London by the arrival of the grand union canal, and the railway came in 1845, with a branch line to Peterborough. There were several iron ore quarries in the surrounding area in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, although most have now disappeared. The shoemaking industry also declined after the first world war, and now the industry is almost gone from the town.
Northampton South is the 140th most deprived seat in England and the most deprived seat in Northamptonshire. However, it ranks 56th when only crime is looked at, and 110th when only access to education and training is looked at. There is a divide, however, with the town centre areas, the inter-war council estates in Far Cotton and the small part of Abington in the seat, and the northern areas to the east of the A428, and the 1970s and 80s overspill estates around Bellinge and Ecton Brook in the east being far more deprived (they actually include some of the most deprived areas in England), while the areas west of the A428, the area of Abington Vale and the subsumed villages of Great and Little Billing are much less deprived. The average income in the seat is about £20 per week lower than the national average, although there is a major gender disparity with men earning more than the national average for male workers and women earning over £70 per week less than the national average for female workers. Its labour market profile is reasonably average, although the middle two major groups – essentially skilled occupations – are over-represented, as are elementary occupations to a lesser extent and managerial and professional occupations are under-represented. Despite its industrial past, manufacturing is under-represented in the local workforce, although human health and social work is over-represented at 22.7% of the workforce compared to 13.2% nationally, making it the seat’s largest industry, and suggesting a high number of public sector workers. Furthermore, the seat is 8% less owner-occupied than the country at large with social and private renting both above average. The wards with most social renting are King’s Heath at 52.9%, Spencer at 35.4% (both to the seat’ north) and Castle in the town centre 27.3%. The wards with the most private renting are the town centre wards of Castle (40.2%), Semilong (34.9%, although only half in the constituency) and St James (29.9%). In stark contrast, New and Old Duston wards to the north west are both over 80% owner-occupied, and Park ward to the east of the centre is 90% owner-occupied: only three other wards hit 60%.
The constituency is 81% UK-born, compared to a national average of 87%. The seat is 82% white, 7.5% Asian and 5.9% black, so it is mostly white although not insignificant minority populations do exist. Education statistics are skewed by the high percentage of people with “other qualifications”, although the proportion with no qualifications is above average and the proportion educated to degree level below it.
And now a question: out of Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, and Northampton South, which is currently the strongest seat for Labour? Answer: Northampton South, which would have been almost unthinkable as recently as 2015. This seat can’t even be classed as a bellwether, having been Tory through both 1974 elections, going Labour in 1997 but returning to the Tories in 2005. Its first majorities were very narrow, although the seat became much safer through the 1980s, helped by the inclusion of rural wards from the neighbouring South Northamptonshire district. In 1997 it fell thanks to pro-Labour boundary changes and a 14.1% swing although Labour’s majority never even hit 2% and by 2010 it looked safely Conservative again. A swing to the left in 2015 and 17 and a lower than average swing to the right in 2019 left Conservative MP Andrew Lewer with a majority of 11.5%.
The reasons for this perhaps surprising pattern are many and varied. Economically, the more deprived areas give Labour a boost although that is counteracted by the richer areas and, remember, average incomes here are higher than the national average. The large number of renters and low number of owner-occupied households favour Labour as well. The ethnic minority vote helps, while the relatively high number of people born outside the UK might provide a more internationalist outlook. The Tories strengths lie in the lack of any recent industry and the poor educational statistics. One factor, however, that might make a big difference between this being a safe seat and a marginal one is the number of people employed in the human health and social work industry. The high proportion points to a high proportion of public sector workers, which traditionally favours the Labour Party.
In terms of the geography, Labour’s strengths are in the town centre areas, which are the most deprived and least white areas of the seat, as well as the inner-northern areas with their high levels of social renting. Labour also often win Delapre and Briar Hill at local level, and have a strong vote in Billing ward. The Conservatives take the middl-class, owner-occupied area to the east of the centre and the areas to the extreme north west as well as some parts of the seat to the south of the Nene. Outlying areas are also good for the Tories, although if Labour ever crack the poorer areas of the east, the Conservative’s will be in trouble.
Overall, this is a right-leaning marginal that has, unusually for a leave-voting seat, swung slightly to the left over recent elections. It has gone from being a seat that Labour could only win in landslides to one that they will probably need to take in order to win any majority. Unfortunately for the party, both Northampton seats are undersized and it looks almost inevitable that seat will take in the well-off, owner-occupied, suburban and heavily Conservative wards in the south of the town from South Northants, which would put this seat beyond Labour’s reach, at least for the foreseeable future.
Northampton South
Northampton South covers the southern part of the town of Northampton in absolutely no sense whatsoever. Confused? You will be. As it is the more southerly of the two seats contained wholly within the borough, the name would be forgivable, were it not for the fact that its borders touch the northern boundary of Northampton but not the southern one at any point, with the most southern part of the town being contained in the South Northamptonshire constituency. From the town centre and the station, the seat bows out to the south to cover the communities of Briar Hill and Far Cotton; runs out to the east to cover the middle-class area of Abington Vale and the far more deprived area of Billing; and runs north-north west along the Harlestone Road (the A428) to Old and New Duston on its west side ad King’s Heath on its east.
Northampton’s history goes back to the tenth century, with the first written record of the town being in 914 has Ham Tune or “Home Town”. The north was added later to distinguish it from other places called Hampton. As Northampton’s medieval town deteriorated, so did its royal connections, during the civil war it was decidedly pro-parliament. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, Northampton became a major centre of footwear and leather manufacture, an industry which rapidly exploded thanks to the demand for boots for the Napoleonic war. It was connected to the midlands coalfields as well as Birmingham Manchester and London by the arrival of the grand union canal, and the railway came in 1845, with a branch line to Peterborough. There were several iron ore quarries in the surrounding area in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, although most have now disappeared. The shoemaking industry also declined after the first world war, and now the industry is almost gone from the town.
Northampton South is the 140th most deprived seat in England and the most deprived seat in Northamptonshire. However, it ranks 56th when only crime is looked at, and 110th when only access to education and training is looked at. There is a divide, however, with the town centre areas, the inter-war council estates in Far Cotton and the small part of Abington in the seat, and the northern areas to the east of the A428, and the 1970s and 80s overspill estates around Bellinge and Ecton Brook in the east being far more deprived (they actually include some of the most deprived areas in England), while the areas west of the A428, the area of Abington Vale and the subsumed villages of Great and Little Billing are much less deprived. The average income in the seat is about £20 per week lower than the national average, although there is a major gender disparity with men earning more than the national average for male workers and women earning over £70 per week less than the national average for female workers. Its labour market profile is reasonably average, although the middle two major groups – essentially skilled occupations – are over-represented, as are elementary occupations to a lesser extent and managerial and professional occupations are under-represented. Despite its industrial past, manufacturing is under-represented in the local workforce, although human health and social work is over-represented at 22.7% of the workforce compared to 13.2% nationally, making it the seat’s largest industry, and suggesting a high number of public sector workers. Furthermore, the seat is 8% less owner-occupied than the country at large with social and private renting both above average. The wards with most social renting are King’s Heath at 52.9%, Spencer at 35.4% (both to the seat’ north) and Castle in the town centre 27.3%. The wards with the most private renting are the town centre wards of Castle (40.2%), Semilong (34.9%, although only half in the constituency) and St James (29.9%). In stark contrast, New and Old Duston wards to the north west are both over 80% owner-occupied, and Park ward to the east of the centre is 90% owner-occupied: only three other wards hit 60%.
The constituency is 81% UK-born, compared to a national average of 87%. The seat is 82% white, 7.5% Asian and 5.9% black, so it is mostly white although not insignificant minority populations do exist. Education statistics are skewed by the high percentage of people with “other qualifications”, although the proportion with no qualifications is above average and the proportion educated to degree level below it.
And now a question: out of Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, and Northampton South, which is currently the strongest seat for Labour? Answer: Northampton South, which would have been almost unthinkable as recently as 2015. This seat can’t even be classed as a bellwether, having been Tory through both 1974 elections, going Labour in 1997 but returning to the Tories in 2005. Its first majorities were very narrow, although the seat became much safer through the 1980s, helped by the inclusion of rural wards from the neighbouring South Northamptonshire district. In 1997 it fell thanks to pro-Labour boundary changes and a 14.1% swing although Labour’s majority never even hit 2% and by 2010 it looked safely Conservative again. A swing to the left in 2015 and 17 and a lower than average swing to the right in 2019 left Conservative MP Andrew Lewer with a majority of 11.5%.
The reasons for this perhaps surprising pattern are many and varied. Economically, the more deprived areas give Labour a boost although that is counteracted by the richer areas and, remember, average incomes here are higher than the national average. The large number of renters and low number of owner-occupied households favour Labour as well. The ethnic minority vote helps, while the relatively high number of people born outside the UK might provide a more internationalist outlook. The Tories strengths lie in the lack of any recent industry and the poor educational statistics. One factor, however, that might make a big difference between this being a safe seat and a marginal one is the number of people employed in the human health and social work industry. The high proportion points to a high proportion of public sector workers, which traditionally favours the Labour Party.
In terms of the geography, Labour’s strengths are in the town centre areas, which are the most deprived and least white areas of the seat, as well as the inner-northern areas with their high levels of social renting. Labour also often win Delapre and Briar Hill at local level, and have a strong vote in Billing ward. The Conservatives take the middl-class, owner-occupied area to the east of the centre and the areas to the extreme north west as well as some parts of the seat to the south of the Nene. Outlying areas are also good for the Tories, although if Labour ever crack the poorer areas of the east, the Conservative’s will be in trouble.
Overall, this is a right-leaning marginal that has, unusually for a leave-voting seat, swung slightly to the left over recent elections. It has gone from being a seat that Labour could only win in landslides to one that they will probably need to take in order to win any majority. Unfortunately for the party, both Northampton seats are undersized and it looks almost inevitable that seat will take in the well-off, owner-occupied, suburban and heavily Conservative wards in the south of the town from South Northants, which would put this seat beyond Labour’s reach, at least for the foreseeable future.
