East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
Jul 19, 2020 20:12:52 GMT
Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells, Clark, and 3 more like this
Post by yellowfox on Jul 19, 2020 20:12:52 GMT
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow is a somewhat sprawling seat, covering that part of Scotland between the Greater Glasgow conurbation and what could reasonably be described as the Borders. Despite this, the population of the seat is largely condensed within the New Town, giving elections here a rather urban flavour.
In terms of boundaries, this seat covers the whole of the old East Kilbride constituency (which survived from creation in 1974 to 2005 with only minor alterations) and a small portion of the Clydesdale constituency around Lesmahagow, that constituency one of those dismembered as a result of the reduction of Scottish representation at Westminster. Despite naming suggesting otherwise, Strathaven was always included within the East Kilbride constituency, the name being changed in 2005 to differentiate with the Holyrood constituency (which has since contracted to include solely the New Town, Strathaven being transferred to Clydesdale).
Electorally, for Westminster, until 2015 the East Kilbride constituencies always returned a Labour MP - the Labour majority falling below 10% into marginal territory only twice, to 5.2% under an SNP challenge in October 1974 and to 9.2% with the SDP challenge of 1983. The Labour hegemony was never quite as secure as in many other areas of the Central Belt, however, with their share of the vote exceeding 50% only in 1979, 1997 and 2001.
The SNP did achieve an absolute majority of votes when Lisa Cameron took the seat as part of their 2015 landslide and have held the seat since, their 2017 slide being largely cancelled out with a strong performance in 2019. In saying that, the Nationalists did not achieve a rebound quite to the extent they may have expected, perhaps due to the relatively controversial nature of Dr Cameron’s candidacy. It is apparent that she is on the socially conservative side of her party, being one of just two SNP MPs to vote against the extension of abortion rights to Northern Ireland, this has lead to friction within the local party, Dr Cameron being the last of the SNP’s then 35 MPs to be confirmed as a PPC in 2019. It is however a statement of the SNP’s dominance in the seat that her greatest (and in all probability only) challenge in 2024 may be from within her own party.
Labour, despite their recent Scottish woes, have consistently retained the silver medal here, although with just a 1.5% lead over the Tories in 2019 it is likely that any future Scottish Tory revival will see their first second place here since 1979. The Holyrood seat has behaved in a similar fashion, with a swing from Labour to the SNP at all four elections this century - the Tories in third on each occasion. If the Tories were to make any advance in Central Scotland it would be here as it is the least deprived constituency by far in the region (although SIMD figures must be caveated).
Since at least the 1970s, higher than average SNP support has been noted in Scotland’s new towns, generally this is said to be due to a lack of a monolithic labour voting history. Indeed, as Scotland’s answer to Milton Keynes, perhaps the dips in Labour support would have seen the constituency voting Conservative were it in England, certainly a move to a New Town 50 years ago was an aspirational move.
Breaking the seat down at local politics, it can be said to cover 6 electoral wards: the 5 including East Kilbride alongside Avondale and Stonehouse. Some small parts of neighbouring wards are included, due to the change of electoral system at local level to STV in 2007, although data at this level is largely supposition and marginal, at best, to the parliamentary result.
In 2017, which must now be regarded as a good year for the Conservatives, they led in 2 wards: Avondale and Stonehouse, and East Kilbride West (which includes many recently built private housing estates) and the SNP the other 4 (South, Central South, Central North, and East). Despite this, the Tories claimed only 2 councillors to Labour’s 6 and 10 for the SNP, who formed a minority council administration for South Lanarkshire. Indeed, East Kilbride must be one of only a few towns across Scotland where no additional tory councillors were elected in 2017.
Historically, council elections have generally been a Labour-SNP battleground in recent years, despite the introduction of preferential voting. The Lib Dems gained their first ever councillor in the town through a defection in EK South in 2019 (that coincidentally being the only ward where they were relevant in 2017) and the Greens have similarly performed above average in EK East, although they are yet to seriously challenge for a seat. The Lib Dem vote will be concentrated in Lindsayfield, another affluent housing estate built around the turn of the century, the rest of EK South being deprived in relative terms.
The local government reforms of 1974 introduced East Kilbride District Council which was controlled from that point through to 1980 by the SNP and from 1980 through to amalgamation into South Lanarkshire in 1995 by Labour. In both cases, first past the post ensured almost total domination of the council, except in 1974 when the SNP could govern only as a minority. Throughout this time both Avondale wards around the town of Strathaven consistently returned Tory candidates, however.
After these wards were subsumed into the unitary authority, SNP strength began to re-emerge in Hairmyres and Greenhills: now part of EK West and EK South respectively, and into this century their advance continued in areas now generally included within the EK East ward. With Hairmyres and Greenhills being generally the most affluent and most deprived areas of the town, this is presumably down to strong local candidates of David Watson and Archie Buchanan, the latter regularly polling over 40% alongside a running mate during the STV era in EK South.
In terms of the Tories, any additional seat would be in EK East, where at the 8th and final count in 2017 they were just 23 votes behind the 2nd SNP candidate. Labour were not close to picking up a second seat in either of the wards that they aimed to, although they did garner around a third of the vote in both EK Central South and EK Central North, being the heart of the original New Town and the pre-war East Kilbride village.
With these above average performances, the recorded no vote at the Independence Referendum, at 54% may have been somewhat a disappointment for the SNP. However, the received local wisdom is that as the South Lanarkshire Counts are held in the town an above-average proportion of postal votes (which would have been overwhelmingly no) were included with the area count. It is impossible to know for sure, and I will not comment on the accuracy of this, except to say that EK South, and in all probability EK Central South, would have voted yes on these numbers, assuming national demographic trends on deprivation held and that any future successful independence campaign will need to win both this constituency, and South Lanarkshire more generally. Results for the EU referendum, on the other hand, were remarkably uninteresting, following the South Lanarkshire (and Scottish) average of 62% remain almost exactly, although EK West likely produced a result similar to that in neighbouring East Renfrewshire.
In terms of boundaries, this seat covers the whole of the old East Kilbride constituency (which survived from creation in 1974 to 2005 with only minor alterations) and a small portion of the Clydesdale constituency around Lesmahagow, that constituency one of those dismembered as a result of the reduction of Scottish representation at Westminster. Despite naming suggesting otherwise, Strathaven was always included within the East Kilbride constituency, the name being changed in 2005 to differentiate with the Holyrood constituency (which has since contracted to include solely the New Town, Strathaven being transferred to Clydesdale).
Electorally, for Westminster, until 2015 the East Kilbride constituencies always returned a Labour MP - the Labour majority falling below 10% into marginal territory only twice, to 5.2% under an SNP challenge in October 1974 and to 9.2% with the SDP challenge of 1983. The Labour hegemony was never quite as secure as in many other areas of the Central Belt, however, with their share of the vote exceeding 50% only in 1979, 1997 and 2001.
The SNP did achieve an absolute majority of votes when Lisa Cameron took the seat as part of their 2015 landslide and have held the seat since, their 2017 slide being largely cancelled out with a strong performance in 2019. In saying that, the Nationalists did not achieve a rebound quite to the extent they may have expected, perhaps due to the relatively controversial nature of Dr Cameron’s candidacy. It is apparent that she is on the socially conservative side of her party, being one of just two SNP MPs to vote against the extension of abortion rights to Northern Ireland, this has lead to friction within the local party, Dr Cameron being the last of the SNP’s then 35 MPs to be confirmed as a PPC in 2019. It is however a statement of the SNP’s dominance in the seat that her greatest (and in all probability only) challenge in 2024 may be from within her own party.
Labour, despite their recent Scottish woes, have consistently retained the silver medal here, although with just a 1.5% lead over the Tories in 2019 it is likely that any future Scottish Tory revival will see their first second place here since 1979. The Holyrood seat has behaved in a similar fashion, with a swing from Labour to the SNP at all four elections this century - the Tories in third on each occasion. If the Tories were to make any advance in Central Scotland it would be here as it is the least deprived constituency by far in the region (although SIMD figures must be caveated).
Since at least the 1970s, higher than average SNP support has been noted in Scotland’s new towns, generally this is said to be due to a lack of a monolithic labour voting history. Indeed, as Scotland’s answer to Milton Keynes, perhaps the dips in Labour support would have seen the constituency voting Conservative were it in England, certainly a move to a New Town 50 years ago was an aspirational move.
Breaking the seat down at local politics, it can be said to cover 6 electoral wards: the 5 including East Kilbride alongside Avondale and Stonehouse. Some small parts of neighbouring wards are included, due to the change of electoral system at local level to STV in 2007, although data at this level is largely supposition and marginal, at best, to the parliamentary result.
In 2017, which must now be regarded as a good year for the Conservatives, they led in 2 wards: Avondale and Stonehouse, and East Kilbride West (which includes many recently built private housing estates) and the SNP the other 4 (South, Central South, Central North, and East). Despite this, the Tories claimed only 2 councillors to Labour’s 6 and 10 for the SNP, who formed a minority council administration for South Lanarkshire. Indeed, East Kilbride must be one of only a few towns across Scotland where no additional tory councillors were elected in 2017.
Historically, council elections have generally been a Labour-SNP battleground in recent years, despite the introduction of preferential voting. The Lib Dems gained their first ever councillor in the town through a defection in EK South in 2019 (that coincidentally being the only ward where they were relevant in 2017) and the Greens have similarly performed above average in EK East, although they are yet to seriously challenge for a seat. The Lib Dem vote will be concentrated in Lindsayfield, another affluent housing estate built around the turn of the century, the rest of EK South being deprived in relative terms.
The local government reforms of 1974 introduced East Kilbride District Council which was controlled from that point through to 1980 by the SNP and from 1980 through to amalgamation into South Lanarkshire in 1995 by Labour. In both cases, first past the post ensured almost total domination of the council, except in 1974 when the SNP could govern only as a minority. Throughout this time both Avondale wards around the town of Strathaven consistently returned Tory candidates, however.
After these wards were subsumed into the unitary authority, SNP strength began to re-emerge in Hairmyres and Greenhills: now part of EK West and EK South respectively, and into this century their advance continued in areas now generally included within the EK East ward. With Hairmyres and Greenhills being generally the most affluent and most deprived areas of the town, this is presumably down to strong local candidates of David Watson and Archie Buchanan, the latter regularly polling over 40% alongside a running mate during the STV era in EK South.
In terms of the Tories, any additional seat would be in EK East, where at the 8th and final count in 2017 they were just 23 votes behind the 2nd SNP candidate. Labour were not close to picking up a second seat in either of the wards that they aimed to, although they did garner around a third of the vote in both EK Central South and EK Central North, being the heart of the original New Town and the pre-war East Kilbride village.
With these above average performances, the recorded no vote at the Independence Referendum, at 54% may have been somewhat a disappointment for the SNP. However, the received local wisdom is that as the South Lanarkshire Counts are held in the town an above-average proportion of postal votes (which would have been overwhelmingly no) were included with the area count. It is impossible to know for sure, and I will not comment on the accuracy of this, except to say that EK South, and in all probability EK Central South, would have voted yes on these numbers, assuming national demographic trends on deprivation held and that any future successful independence campaign will need to win both this constituency, and South Lanarkshire more generally. Results for the EU referendum, on the other hand, were remarkably uninteresting, following the South Lanarkshire (and Scottish) average of 62% remain almost exactly, although EK West likely produced a result similar to that in neighbouring East Renfrewshire.
