Post by European Lefty on Jul 17, 2020 18:26:23 GMT
I said I would have a go at this one, so here it is
Torridge and West Devon
Torridge and West Devon is Devon’s largest seat by area, covering all of Torridge district and most of West Devon district, with the town of Okehampton and 5 other wards covering various small rural communities to the east being in Central Devon instead. With 78,954 voters, it is slightly oversized and will have to be trimmed down at the next boundary review. The main towns in the seat are Bideford in the north, at the mouth of the river Torridge, Holsworthy in the middle near the Cornish border and Tavistock to the south. It also contains a substantial chunk of the Dartmoor national park. It also contains the famous island of Lundy, although its permanent population and hence its electorate is very small. It also contains Westward Ho!, famous for being the only place in the UK to have a punctuation mark in its name. It acquired this name after a book of the same name set in Bideford was released in 1855, and entrepreneurs saw an opportunity to capitalise on its potential for tourists.
Like much of Devon, most of this constituency was and is primarily an agricultural area. That isn’t to say that there has never been any industry of note in the area. Appledore shipbuilders operated out of the drydock in Appledore, on the mouth of the Torridge, from 1855 until 2019 and built over 350 vessels during its 164-year period of operation. Tavistock also has an industrial past, first centred around copper, tin and manganese mining and later around the cloth trade, however both had almost completely died out by the mid nineteenth century. Bideford was Britain’s third largest port by the sixteenth century, and it was here that Sir Walter Raleigh landed his shipment of Tobacco. Some raw materials are still exported from Bideford to other parts of Europe, and some fishing boats still operate out of both here and Appledore.
Today, agriculture remains important to the local economy and possibly not as important as tourism, with the North Devon Coast, the Tarka Trail and Dartmoor all being major attractions for tourists from all over the country and beyond. Accommodation and food services employ 14.6% of workers in the constituency, almost double the national average. Managerial and professional occupations are slightly under-represented in the workforce whilst elementary occupations are slightly over-represented. In spite of Devon’s reputation for wealth, deprivation is a serious problem here. It is the 252nd most deprived seat in England, putting it roughly in line with Blaydon, Eastbourne, and Norfolk North. This also makes it the 4th most deprived seat in Devon and the most deprived of the county’s predominantly rural seats. Although many of its rankings are around its average, it scores significantly higher on barriers to housing and services (83rd in England) and living environment (57th). This is partly due to the high housing prices and lack of housing availability, partly caused by the high number of second home-owners with homes in this area of the country. Average income is significantly below the national average, at £501.9 per week compared to £587 nationally. Owner-occupied households make up 72.4% of the constituency compared to 63.5% nationally, while social renting is only just over half the national average and private renting is roughly in-line. There is some variation, with 20% f households in Bideford East ward being socially rented, and private renting being 28.1% in Bideford North and 28.3% in Clovelly Bay; Westward Ho!, Lydford and Tavistock North are also significantly above average for both the seat and the country. Employment deprivation is particularly bad in and around Appledore and Bideford, as the once-plentiful industry has dwindled to almost nothing and many of the jobs have gone with it. Another factor of the area’s deprivation is that just 57.1% of the workforce is employed full time – a full ten points lower than the British average. This is because much of the tourism-related work is seasonal due to the far greater numbers of the tourists visiting in the summer. This also goes some way to explaining the particularly low average incomes.
As might be expected for rural Devon, this seat is almost entirely white British. 96% of the population was born in the UK and it is over 98% white – no ward is under 95%. It is also over five years older than the national average, with an average age of 53.6 years. Both people with no qualifications and people with degrees are under-represented in the population – the statistics suggest a higher than average number leave school with GCSEs but get no farther in their education. All of this perhaps explains the conservatism of this region, especially regarding immigration, and goes some way to explaining the high leave vote, estimated at 58%.
So, in summary, this is a deprived, but not impoverished, seat with an elderly and almost entirely white population and an economy with a high reliance on agriculture and tourism. In rural Devon. Little wonder then, with this intersection of agricultural right-wing economics, social conservatism, and the areas conservative culture that this is a safe Conservative seat. However, it hasn’t always been like that. The seat was created in 1983, largely from the old West Devon seat when suburban Plymouth was removed and replaced by all of the Devon coast west of the Torridge, imported from the North Devon seat. It was Conservative by 12,351 votes or 23% over the Liberals in its first election; this majority narrowed in 1987 and in 1992 the majority shrunk to just 5.8% or 3,614 votes. The incumbent MP defected to the Liberal Democrats in 1995, and in 1997 a new candidate won it for them by just 1,957 votes or 3.3%. They held on 2001 by 2.2% before losing to Conservative Geoffrey Cox in 2005 by 3,236 or 5.5%. His majority was 5.2% in 2010 as UKIP took third with 5.5%, but 2015 proved to be an all-change election in the constituency. The LibDem vote fell by 27.1% as they dropped to third behind UKIP but ahead of Labour. Labour nearly doubled their vote to win 10.6%, the Greens gained 5.1% to finish on 7% and hold their deposit. UKIP gained 12.8% to finish second although still shy of 20%. The Tories finally broke 50%, gaining 5.2% to finish with 50.9% and a majority of 32.5%. They increased their majority to 34.8% in 2017, winning 56.5% of the vote as Labour gained 11.1% to finish second for the first time in the seat’s history, the LibDems made a modest recovery, UKIP failed to field a candidate and the Green vote evaporated. In 2019, the LibDems recovered their second-place spot with 18.3% to Labour’s 17.2% and incumbent Conservative Geoffrey Cox increased his majority to 41.8% with 60.1%, both the largest majority and largest winning share since the seat was created. In 2017 and 2019, this was the safest seat in Devon and Cornwall.
At local elections there is a strong independent vote, a smattering of Green and LibDem councillors and, as of 2019, the only Labour councillors elected at district-level in Devon outside of Exeter. Bideford and Appledore both contain a reasonable Labour vote as a result of both their industrial past and the relatively high number of people living in poverty. Ascertaining where the LibDem vote comes from is slightly more difficult, as there are no major areas with favourable demographics or high remain votes. When they won the seat, it was probably by taking votes in and around Tavistock, a strong area for them at the 2003 elections, and by winning tactical Labour votes in Appledore and Bideford. No, of course, there can be almost no doubt that the Conservatives comfortably win every ward at general elections.
Overall, this is a deeply conservative seat in rural Devon that has undergone a transition from a Conservative-LibDem marginal typical of Devon and Cornwall, to a safe Conservative seat as a result of the coalition and brexit. With the seat as safe as it has ever been, and the demographics becoming more Conservative-friendly, it is very hard indeed to see anyone else winning this seat any time soon.
Torridge and West Devon
Torridge and West Devon is Devon’s largest seat by area, covering all of Torridge district and most of West Devon district, with the town of Okehampton and 5 other wards covering various small rural communities to the east being in Central Devon instead. With 78,954 voters, it is slightly oversized and will have to be trimmed down at the next boundary review. The main towns in the seat are Bideford in the north, at the mouth of the river Torridge, Holsworthy in the middle near the Cornish border and Tavistock to the south. It also contains a substantial chunk of the Dartmoor national park. It also contains the famous island of Lundy, although its permanent population and hence its electorate is very small. It also contains Westward Ho!, famous for being the only place in the UK to have a punctuation mark in its name. It acquired this name after a book of the same name set in Bideford was released in 1855, and entrepreneurs saw an opportunity to capitalise on its potential for tourists.
Like much of Devon, most of this constituency was and is primarily an agricultural area. That isn’t to say that there has never been any industry of note in the area. Appledore shipbuilders operated out of the drydock in Appledore, on the mouth of the Torridge, from 1855 until 2019 and built over 350 vessels during its 164-year period of operation. Tavistock also has an industrial past, first centred around copper, tin and manganese mining and later around the cloth trade, however both had almost completely died out by the mid nineteenth century. Bideford was Britain’s third largest port by the sixteenth century, and it was here that Sir Walter Raleigh landed his shipment of Tobacco. Some raw materials are still exported from Bideford to other parts of Europe, and some fishing boats still operate out of both here and Appledore.
Today, agriculture remains important to the local economy and possibly not as important as tourism, with the North Devon Coast, the Tarka Trail and Dartmoor all being major attractions for tourists from all over the country and beyond. Accommodation and food services employ 14.6% of workers in the constituency, almost double the national average. Managerial and professional occupations are slightly under-represented in the workforce whilst elementary occupations are slightly over-represented. In spite of Devon’s reputation for wealth, deprivation is a serious problem here. It is the 252nd most deprived seat in England, putting it roughly in line with Blaydon, Eastbourne, and Norfolk North. This also makes it the 4th most deprived seat in Devon and the most deprived of the county’s predominantly rural seats. Although many of its rankings are around its average, it scores significantly higher on barriers to housing and services (83rd in England) and living environment (57th). This is partly due to the high housing prices and lack of housing availability, partly caused by the high number of second home-owners with homes in this area of the country. Average income is significantly below the national average, at £501.9 per week compared to £587 nationally. Owner-occupied households make up 72.4% of the constituency compared to 63.5% nationally, while social renting is only just over half the national average and private renting is roughly in-line. There is some variation, with 20% f households in Bideford East ward being socially rented, and private renting being 28.1% in Bideford North and 28.3% in Clovelly Bay; Westward Ho!, Lydford and Tavistock North are also significantly above average for both the seat and the country. Employment deprivation is particularly bad in and around Appledore and Bideford, as the once-plentiful industry has dwindled to almost nothing and many of the jobs have gone with it. Another factor of the area’s deprivation is that just 57.1% of the workforce is employed full time – a full ten points lower than the British average. This is because much of the tourism-related work is seasonal due to the far greater numbers of the tourists visiting in the summer. This also goes some way to explaining the particularly low average incomes.
As might be expected for rural Devon, this seat is almost entirely white British. 96% of the population was born in the UK and it is over 98% white – no ward is under 95%. It is also over five years older than the national average, with an average age of 53.6 years. Both people with no qualifications and people with degrees are under-represented in the population – the statistics suggest a higher than average number leave school with GCSEs but get no farther in their education. All of this perhaps explains the conservatism of this region, especially regarding immigration, and goes some way to explaining the high leave vote, estimated at 58%.
So, in summary, this is a deprived, but not impoverished, seat with an elderly and almost entirely white population and an economy with a high reliance on agriculture and tourism. In rural Devon. Little wonder then, with this intersection of agricultural right-wing economics, social conservatism, and the areas conservative culture that this is a safe Conservative seat. However, it hasn’t always been like that. The seat was created in 1983, largely from the old West Devon seat when suburban Plymouth was removed and replaced by all of the Devon coast west of the Torridge, imported from the North Devon seat. It was Conservative by 12,351 votes or 23% over the Liberals in its first election; this majority narrowed in 1987 and in 1992 the majority shrunk to just 5.8% or 3,614 votes. The incumbent MP defected to the Liberal Democrats in 1995, and in 1997 a new candidate won it for them by just 1,957 votes or 3.3%. They held on 2001 by 2.2% before losing to Conservative Geoffrey Cox in 2005 by 3,236 or 5.5%. His majority was 5.2% in 2010 as UKIP took third with 5.5%, but 2015 proved to be an all-change election in the constituency. The LibDem vote fell by 27.1% as they dropped to third behind UKIP but ahead of Labour. Labour nearly doubled their vote to win 10.6%, the Greens gained 5.1% to finish on 7% and hold their deposit. UKIP gained 12.8% to finish second although still shy of 20%. The Tories finally broke 50%, gaining 5.2% to finish with 50.9% and a majority of 32.5%. They increased their majority to 34.8% in 2017, winning 56.5% of the vote as Labour gained 11.1% to finish second for the first time in the seat’s history, the LibDems made a modest recovery, UKIP failed to field a candidate and the Green vote evaporated. In 2019, the LibDems recovered their second-place spot with 18.3% to Labour’s 17.2% and incumbent Conservative Geoffrey Cox increased his majority to 41.8% with 60.1%, both the largest majority and largest winning share since the seat was created. In 2017 and 2019, this was the safest seat in Devon and Cornwall.
At local elections there is a strong independent vote, a smattering of Green and LibDem councillors and, as of 2019, the only Labour councillors elected at district-level in Devon outside of Exeter. Bideford and Appledore both contain a reasonable Labour vote as a result of both their industrial past and the relatively high number of people living in poverty. Ascertaining where the LibDem vote comes from is slightly more difficult, as there are no major areas with favourable demographics or high remain votes. When they won the seat, it was probably by taking votes in and around Tavistock, a strong area for them at the 2003 elections, and by winning tactical Labour votes in Appledore and Bideford. No, of course, there can be almost no doubt that the Conservatives comfortably win every ward at general elections.
Overall, this is a deeply conservative seat in rural Devon that has undergone a transition from a Conservative-LibDem marginal typical of Devon and Cornwall, to a safe Conservative seat as a result of the coalition and brexit. With the seat as safe as it has ever been, and the demographics becoming more Conservative-friendly, it is very hard indeed to see anyone else winning this seat any time soon.
