Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 31, 2021 15:21:28 GMT
I assume the LDP won their customary thumping majority? No, it will be a narrow one, as expected. Presently they are at 232/465 with 65 undeclared. LDP's GeneralSecretary has already stepped down, surely in order to take away pressure from Kishido. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 31, 2021 15:41:53 GMT
LDP's GeneralSecretary has already stepped down... Lost his seat as well. A very strange election all told. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 31, 2021 15:45:37 GMT
A very basic, short, but interesting, outline of what helps keep the LDP in power: Japan election: Why the ruling party keeps winning www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59073986Interesting that door-to-door campaigning isn’t permitted. ‘ Japan election: How the elderly keep the ruling party in power’ Gosh can you imagine that Sad, that it's not only US-media, which are transferring their situation in a shamelessly ignorant way to other countries. For avoiding they could have read for example this: mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201119/p2a/00m/0dm/033000cIt's really known to every observer, that the very old are LDP-leaning, while the less elderly (below 70) are LDP's worst AgeGroup. What improves then gradually the younger people are. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 31, 2021 15:52:05 GMT
‘ Japan election: How the elderly keep the ruling party in power’ Gosh can you imagine that Sad, that it's not only US-media, which are transferring their situation in a shamelessly ignorant way to other countries. For avoiding they could have read for example this: mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201119/p2a/00m/0dm/033000cIt's really known to every observer, that the very old are LDP-leaning, while the less elderly (below 70) are LDP's worst AgeGroup. What improves then gradually the younger people are. "Results also showed that the younger the respondent, the more likely they were to say they do not consider the prime minister's refusal to appoint six researchers as new members to the independent advisory body Science Council of Japan problematic".
Now that's what i call a niche question.* 
*presumably something to do with the response to Covid I guess.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 31, 2021 16:02:21 GMT
Sad, that it's not only US-media, which are transferring their situation in a shamelessly ignorant way to other countries. For avoiding they could have read for example this: mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201119/p2a/00m/0dm/033000cIt's really known to every observer, that the very old are LDP-leaning, while the less elderly (below 70) are LDP's worst AgeGroup. What improves then gradually the younger people are. "Results also showed that the younger the respondent, the more likely they were to say they do not consider the prime minister's refusal to appoint six researchers as new members to the independent advisory body Science Council of Japan problematic".
Now that's what i call a niche question.*
*presumably something to do with the response to Covid I guess.
Indeed. But it was also only 1 of several questions. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 31, 2021 17:07:27 GMT
"Results also showed that the younger the respondent, the more likely they were to say they do not consider the prime minister's refusal to appoint six researchers as new members to the independent advisory body Science Council of Japan problematic".
Now that's what i call a niche question.*
*presumably something to do with the response to Covid I guess.
Indeed. But it was also only 1 of several questions. Indeed. But it was the one highlighted.  |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Oct 31, 2021 18:02:58 GMT
‘ Japan election: How the elderly keep the ruling party in power’ Gosh can you imagine that Sad, that it's not only US-media, which are transferring their situation in a shamelessly ignorant way to other countries. For avoiding they could have read for example this: mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201119/p2a/00m/0dm/033000cIt's really known to every observer, that the very old are LDP-leaning, while the less elderly (below 70) are LDP's worst AgeGroup. What improves then gradually the younger people are. ‘Concerning the recent poll results, Matsumoto commented, "It reflects the younger generation's tendency to orient toward maintaining the status quo, where they don't want to change or for present circumstances to change. Rather than being 'conservative,' they should be called 'self-protective,' and in terms of politics they may be on a different part of the spectrum to conservatism."’ No ‘Young Turks’ in Japan then! |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Oct 31, 2021 18:10:07 GMT
Ichirō Ozawa reportedly defeated after fifty two years in the Diet. Ordinarily 'long-serving opposition politician ousted by LDP' would not normally be seen as 'good' news, he is a frankly satanic figure so... Great Wikipedia page ‘In the same speech, Ozawa said, "I don't like British people."‘ |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 31, 2021 18:24:03 GMT
Sad, that it's not only US-media, which are transferring their situation in a shamelessly ignorant way to other countries. For avoiding they could have read for example this: mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201119/p2a/00m/0dm/033000cIt's really known to every observer, that the very old are LDP-leaning, while the less elderly (below 70) are LDP's worst AgeGroup. What improves then gradually the younger people are. ‘Concerning the recent poll results, Matsumoto commented, "It reflects the younger generation's tendency to orient toward maintaining the status quo, where they don't want to change or for present circumstances to change. Rather than being 'conservative,' they should be called 'self-protective,' and in terms of politics they may be on a different part of the spectrum to conservatism."’ No ‘Young Turks’ in Japan then! They trend more towards either Ishin's right-liberalism ("libertarian") or nationalism a la Abe. Indeed less so to throne&altare. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 31, 2021 18:28:00 GMT
Finally LDP+Komeito will have lost not more than ~10 MPs - what is quite successful.
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 31, 2021 21:51:18 GMT
Based on that BBC report the main points on Japanese politics are:
The main Right of Centre Party has held power for the vast majority of the period since WW2.
Ruling Party relies on overwhelming support from older and rural voters.
Young people and urban voters are demotivated and disillusioned with political system meaning lower turnout from these groups.
Opposition parties are badly divided with leaders with minimal public profile.
Constituency map is well out of date.
Does any of this sound vaguely familiar?
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Oct 31, 2021 22:32:39 GMT
"Liberal Democrats on track to retain power..." Not often you wake up to that. Mendip District Council 🤝 Japan Controlled by the Lib Dems |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 1, 2021 0:01:02 GMT
Based on that BBC report the main points on Japanese politics are: The main Right of Centre Party has held power for the vast majority of the period since WW2. Ruling Party relies on overwhelming support from older and rural voters. Young people and urban voters are demotivated and disillusioned with political system meaning lower turnout from these groups. Opposition parties are badly divided with leaders with minimal public profile. Constituency map is well out of date. Does any of this sound vaguely familiar? It isn't a remotely similar situation to Britain. Since the occupation ended in 1952, the LDP (and its predecessor parties) have only been out of power for a total of four years (1993-4, 2009-12) and have held the post of PM for all but one of the remaining sixty nine years. The LDP is particularly strong in the countryside and is particularly strong with voters considered elderly from a Japanese perspective (i.e. older than where we would typically define matters in GB), but are dominant amongst young voters and now in all major metropolitan regions other than Osaka (which is dominated by a party to their right). Turnout is now significantly lower than in Britain: this time it was only 56%. The state of the opposition parties in Britain and Japan cannot be seriously compared: the Japanese opposition makes the Labour Party at its most fratricidal look like a tea party. And the issue with the Japanese constituency map isn't that it is out of date but that it is skewed by conscious malapportionment aimed at boosting the representation of regions particularly important to certain LDP factions, Chūgoku especially. |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 1, 2021 7:24:55 GMT
Finally LDP+Komeito will have lost not more than ~10 MPs - what is quite successful. It appears to be a case of polling failure. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 1, 2021 12:51:38 GMT
Did the polls overstate the likely turnout?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 1, 2021 16:21:45 GMT
Polling is very difficult in Japan for what amount to cultural reasons.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 1, 2021 21:30:53 GMT
Finally LDP+Komeito will have lost not more than ~10 MPs - what is quite successful. It appears to be a case of polling failure. Partly correct, partly not: Contrary to former elections, when the pollsters of the right-wing MediaHouses had LDP+ too low (and vice versa), this time the right-wing pollsters were roughly right: 293=261+32 HiroshiMiura 296=265+31 AsahiShimbun |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 2, 2021 2:13:34 GMT
Asahi is left wing I thought?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 2, 2021 9:19:26 GMT
Asahi is left wing I thought? Ah - yes, sorry. The right-wing media (Yomiuri, Nikkei, Sankei) underpolled LDP as usual, the left ones (Asahi, Mainichi, Kyodo) had them correct. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 2, 2021 9:54:06 GMT
Polling is very difficult in Japan for what amount to cultural reasons. It would be impolite to knock on the doors or make cold calls. Impolite to ask those impertinent questions. And beyond endurance to publish the results. I sometimes wish it were true here as well. For all the good and harm that they do and the nonsense they contain. And of course this heightened form of politeness for some reason did not extent to the many British civilians and servicemen tortured and starved to death in SE Asia during WW2, nor to the hundreds of thousands of women raped in Manchuria as an act of supremacy! Nor does such politeness stops the Nips from having very nasty anime comics, videos and games. It is a very fluid type of culture of politeness in various discrete compartments. |
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