East Surrey

[andrewp]

Jun 25, 2020 15:58:09 GMT Robert Waller said:

Since the creation of new threads has eased off somewhat, I'll make a commitment to this being my next effort.

Does anyone have an up to date total of how many we have nothing for?

[European Lefty]

Jun 25, 2020 16:13:35 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 25, 2020 15:58:09 GMT Robert Waller said:

Since the creation of new threads has eased off somewhat, I'll make a commitment to this being my next effort.

Does anyone have an up to date total of how many we have nothing for?

We currently have 409 threads which leaves 141 still to be done.

[andrewp]

Jun 25, 2020 18:35:20 GMT European Lefty said:

Jun 25, 2020 16:13:35 GMT andrewp said:

Does anyone have an up to date total of how many we have nothing for?

We currently have 409 threads which leaves 141 still to be done.

Thanks, 241?

[Robert Waller]

However, quite a few (maybe 15 or 20) of the 409 threads do not have a 'main entry', either because they are place-holders as this one is at present or because they were done by Barnaby Marder, and have disappeared along with him.

[Robert Waller]

This is not only the easternmost but the safest seat in Surrey – that is, for the Conservative party, who hold all 11 constituencies in the county as it is currently defined. However, the county-wide picture is not quite as monolithic as it may appear, despite Surrey’s reputation as the archetype of the affluent Home Counties or outer-London-suburbs. For a start, some of the Surrey seats were genuine contests in the 2019 general election, with Esher & Walton and Guildford rightly regarded as marginals with an uncertain outcome. What is more, even East Surrey’s very comfortable percentage majority only just makes the list of the 100 largest in Britain. The reason is pretty much the same in all cases: the Liberal Democrats advanced in every Surrey constituency, in some cases substantially and threateningly. Even in East Surrey they nearly doubled their share, from 10% in 2017 to 19%. In turn, the main reason for the Lib Dem advance is the existence of a significant ‘Remain in the EU’ opinion in the county. The 46% estimated in East Surrey, though only just below the national average, is low for the county, which helps to explain the relatively easy win here, though it should also be noted that the East Surrey MP from 2010 to 2019, Sam Gyimah, actually defected to the Liberal Democrats over the Brexit issue. He tried his luck in the Kensington constituency, where he finished third and was accused by some Labour supporters of splitting the Remain vote there and allowing the Conservatives to regain narrowly. That he did not stay here to reap any possible incumbency advantage says much about the potential strength of the Liberal Democrat challenge in this seat.

The East Surrey constituency is mainly based on the local government District of Tandridge, which has only existed since the 1974 reorganisation, but which is also the name of an ancient Hundred. Unlike Bassetlaw and Rushliffe in Nottinghamshire, the parliamentary seat has never followed by being called Tandridge, which is perhaps a defeat for romantics but prosaically describes the location more comprehensibly. The largest community in Tandridge is Caterham, a town generally divided between its hill and valley sections, and formerly notable for a large Army barracks, now the site of new housing. The seat, here largely linked by the A25, runs past Warlingham and Woldingham towards the Kent border beyond the towns of Oxted and Lingfield (as in the racecourse) eventually reaching the county boundary just west of Westerham. As the hill/valley distinction in Caterham suggests, much of the seat lies along the ridges and hollows of the North Downs. However Tandridge is not large enough to justify a constituency of its own, and in fact the largest community in the seat is borrowed from the borough of Reigate & Banstead. This is Horley, population over 22,000, which very much lies in the orbit of Gatwick Airport, and is situated between Redhill and Crawley, neither of them in the East Surrey seat. Thus Horley has something of a detached feel, ‘making up the numbers’.

In the May 2019 local elections, preceding the general election by seven months, the Conservatives actually did much better in Horley than in Tandridge. They took all nine Horley ward councilors in the all-out Reigate and Banstead elections. In Tandridge, however, as in several other Surrey districts, the Tories did poorly, losing out both to a variety of independents and local residents groups and to the Liberal Democrats. For example the Oxted and Limpsfield Residents Group won all three wards they contested, Godstone was swept by a ‘No Description’ who got 73% despite being opposed by four party label candidates, and the Lib Dems took two Caterham wards as well as Warlingham East, Chelsham and Farleigh (they had also won both Caterham Hill and Valley in the 2017 Surrey county council elections). In all the Tories took just 4 of the 14 wards in Tandridge in May 2019. Overall they now have only a third of the 42 councillors, which is therefore thoroughly under no overall control.

The same does not, and will not, apply to the East Surrey parliamentary seat. While not breaking any records, owner-occupation, managerial occupation (especially ‘lower managerial’ and ‘intermediate’) and measures of affluence such as car ownership are all well above average, and unemployment well below. Labour has not claimed a single councillor in Tandridge since the Blair years. The Liberal Democrats have more of a local government base to work with, but there is a strong suspicion that the independents and residents who are so strong in Tandridge do mainly express a Conservative allegiance as far as general elections are concerned. The ‘east end’ of many cities and towns in Britain are less Conservative than the west ends, generally because of the prevailing wind, but that definitely does not apply to the constituencies within the county of Surrey. This eastern division may well again record their most commanding result next time.

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 74.8 % 71/650
Private rented 12.1% 454/650
Social rented 10.9% 544/650
White 93.5% 357/650
Black 1.1% 252/650
Asian 2.9% 311/650
Managerial & professional 40.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 17.2%
Degree level 31.4% 151/650
No qualifications 17.2% 559/650
Students 6.2% 444/650
Age 65+ 17.8% 247/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 74.8% 60/573
Private rented 14.2% 469/573
Social rented 11.0% 472/573
White 88.7 %
Black 2.4%
Asian 4.4%
Managerial & professional 42.5% 63/573
Routine & Semi-routine 15.7% 509/573
Degree level 36.6% 157/573
No qualifications 13.9% 479/573




General Election 2019: East Surrey

Party Candidate Votes % ±

Conservative Claire Coutinho 35,624 59.7 +0.1
Liberal Democrats Alexander Ehmann 11,584 19.4 +8.9
Labour Frances Rehal 8,247 13.8 -5.4
Green Joseph Booton 2,340 3.9 -2.1
Independent Helena Windsor 1,374 2.3 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Martin Hogbin 521 0.9 N/A

C Majority 24,040 -0.1

Turnout 59,925 72.1 -2.8

Conservative hold

Swing C to LD 4.5

[bigfatron]

It's certainly true that the various residents' groups (notably the Oxted and Limpsfield Residents group) are 'conservative' in nature, being more closely associated with UKIP than the Tories, and pretty much refusing point blank to work with any other party grouping on the District council.

Further progress by the Lib Dems and Independents/Residents on both District and County councils is quite likely, but Horley's presence in East Surrey means the seat is very unlikely to swing away from the Tories unless briefly in some high-profile by-election.

[sirbenjamin]

The 2023 Boundary Review will likely break the link between Tandridge and Horley as the electorate of East Surrey as it stands is over quota.

Tandridge on its own is still slightly too small to form a parliamentary seat, and while including just one of the three Horley wards would be an option, it is more likely that the BCE will look North and include the Hooley, Merstham and Netherne ward rather than splitting Horley between two seats.

So we'll lose Horley and gain the similarly named but far smaller Hooley, none of which will make a lot of difference to the character of the seat, though the loss of Horley might make it a little less safe for the Tories.

[sirbenjamin]

Harestone ward includes David Gold's home 'The Chalet' with its own golf course, lake and helipad, where drinks parties for the local Association are sometimes hosted.

It is also home to my rather more modest two bedroom flat.

[jacoblamsden]

Jan 28, 2021 16:30:50 GMT sirbenjamin said:

The 2023 Boundary Review will likely break the link between Tandridge and Horley as the electorate of East Surrey as it stands is over quota.

Tandridge on its own is still slightly too small to form a parliamentary seat, and while including just one of the three Horley wards would be an option, it is more likely that the BCE will look North and include the Hooley, Merstham and Netherne ward rather than splitting Horley between two seats.

So we'll lose Horley and gain the similarly named but far smaller Hooley, none of which will make a lot of difference to the character of the seat, though the loss of Horley might make it a little less safe for the Tories.

I stopped for lunch in Horley last summer - interesting that it is one of the safer Tory parts of East Surrey, is that's because it is more Brexity than Oxted, Caterham, etc? It seemed a bit of a drab, middle-of-the-road kind of place, less wealthy than much of Surrey I would have guessed. 

[sirbenjamin]

Jan 28, 2021 18:29:21 GMT jacoblamsden said:

Jan 28, 2021 16:30:50 GMT sirbenjamin said:

The 2023 Boundary Review will likely break the link between Tandridge and Horley as the electorate of East Surrey as it stands is over quota.

Tandridge on its own is still slightly too small to form a parliamentary seat, and while including just one of the three Horley wards would be an option, it is more likely that the BCE will look North and include the Hooley, Merstham and Netherne ward rather than splitting Horley between two seats.

So we'll lose Horley and gain the similarly named but far smaller Hooley, none of which will make a lot of difference to the character of the seat, though the loss of Horley might make it a little less safe for the Tories.

I stopped for lunch in Horley last summer - interesting that it is one of the safer Tory parts of East Surrey, is that's because it is more Brexity than Oxted, Caterham, etc? It seemed a bit of a drab, middle-of-the-road kind of place, less wealthy than much of Surrey I would have guessed. 

Tandridge has competitive and well-organised Lib Dems who apparently haven't extended their grasp to Horley yet.

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries

Con	30413	58.9%
LD	10857	21.0%
Lab	6758	13.1%
Grn	2054	4.0%
Oth	1572	3.0%
Majority	19556	37.9%