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Post by Merseymike on Jun 22, 2020 15:55:32 GMT
I'll get this one done this week
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 16, 2020 15:10:55 GMT
A seat often included alongside Sefton Central and Wirral West as an example of a constituency where Labour poll better than they should expect to, the seat was created in 1983 from elements of the oversized Tory Wirral seat, and the Labour marginal of Bebington and Ellesmere Port. For its first 13 years it was held by Tory Barry Porter, but since a 1996 by-election Labour have held the seat. Two right wing Labour MPs, Ben Chapman and Alison McGovern ( a leading light of Progress) have been elected with reasonable if not huge majorities, with the seat only looking really close in 2010 where the Labour majority dropped to 531.
The seat is similar to Wirral West only slightly less uniformly middle class. There are five wards in all. Two are held by Labour although both have been lost in recent history - Bebington and Bromborough. The very upmarket and safe Conservative redoubt of Heswall, and the more marginal but consistently Conservative Clatterbridge provide the bulk of the Tory vote, and the fifth ward, Eastham, returns three LibDem councillors although national results suggest that little of this vote transfers over to national elections and that Labour are more likely to be the beneficiary.
Recalling the tendency for Labour to underperform in Wirral local elections and the Merseyside effect at national elections, the seat as a reasonably secure Labour constituency is no great surprise and certainly parts of the seat, particularly in Bromborough and Eastham, have a longstanding Labour vote. Heswall has to be one of the most upmarket areas even by Wirral standards and a visit there doesn't suggest a Labour seat. However 2019 saw a Labour majority of just over 6000 and it looks unlikely that the Tories will see much of a revival here.
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hengo
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Post by hengo on Sept 30, 2020 21:27:50 GMT
It might change if the local Conservative party ever managed to attempt the slightest effort, and finally chose a better candidate. In 25 years I’ve only ever been canvassed ( in Heswall) by Labour and LibDems. Even so I suspect if the slippery Ben Chapman hadn’t stood down in the wake of the expenses scandal and been replaced by a local girl it would have reverted to the Conservatives then. There hasn’t been much demographic change here, and no real reason why it couldn’t . There is some of the middle class professional Labour vote we discussed elsewhere in Wirral, and Alison McGovern is pretty well liked.
An interesting footnote about this constituency is the impact the pre ‘97 by election had on the subsequent education policy of the Labour Government. As this is one of two selective areas in Wirral, and the schools, both Grammar and “ Secondary Modern” are locally highly popular, it looked like this would be the dominant issue. However Blair himself gave assurances that the Grammar schools would be safe under Labour for as long as that was what their parents wanted. This despite Blunkett , as shadow education secretary, being committed to finally end them. He ( Blunkett) later, embarrassingly, had to claim that when he had said “ no more Grammar schools” to resounding cheers, what he had actually meant was no MORE Grammar schools, ie more than we already had. And subsequently the rules were constructed so that it was impossible for a local authority to reorganise on a comprehensive basis, as Wirral would most certainly have proposed when, shortly later, Labour gained control of the Council.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2020 12:25:11 GMT
It might change if the local Conservative party ever managed to attempt the slightest effort, and finally chose a better candidate. In 25 years I’ve only ever been canvassed ( in Heswall) by Labour and LibDems. Even so I suspect if the slippery Ben Chapman hadn’t stood down in the wake of the expenses scandal and been replaced by a local girl it would have reverted to the Conservatives then. There hasn’t been much demographic change here, and no real reason why it couldn’t . There is some of the middle class professional Labour vote we discussed elsewhere in Wirral, and Alison McGovern is pretty well liked. An interesting footnote about this constituency is the impact the pre ‘97 by election had on the subsequent education policy of the Labour Government. As this is one of two selective areas in Wirral, and the schools, both Grammar and “ Secondary Modern” are locally highly popular, it looked like this would be the dominant issue. However Blair himself gave assurances that the Grammar schools would be safe under Labour for as long as that was what their parents wanted. This despite Blunkett , as shadow education secretary, being committed to finally end them. He ( Blunkett) later, embarrassingly, had to claim that when he had said “ no more Grammar schools” to resounding cheers, what he had actually meant was no MORE Grammar schools, ie more than we already had. And subsequently the rules were constructed so that it was impossible for a local authority to reorganise on a comprehensive basis, as Wirral would most certainly have proposed when, shortly later, Labour gained control of the Council. I doubt it. The Tory assault on the public sector since 2010 means there's no way back for them here. Conservatives don't need this seat to win a majority but they'd better hope private sector professionals don't go the way of their public sector counterparts if Brexit goes badly. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2020 12:30:09 GMT
I do think this constituency is also going Labour's way demographically speaking, albeit gradually.
Wirral West stands out rather more as a "surprising" seat for them.
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Oct 1, 2020 13:30:26 GMT
I doubt it. The Tory assault on the public sector since 2010 means there's no way back for them here. Conservatives don't need this seat to win a majority but they'd better hope private sector professionals don't go the way of their public sector counterparts if Brexit goes badly. I think the issue with your analysis (and I’m not having a go here, just a bit of advice) is that you isolate one factor of many and (perhaps inadvertently) suggest it to be the only one at play. The frequently repeated “Tories will lose this seat when brexit goes badly” is rather simplistic. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2020 13:57:02 GMT
I doubt it. The Tory assault on the public sector since 2010 means there's no way back for them here. Conservatives don't need this seat to win a majority but they'd better hope private sector professionals don't go the way of their public sector counterparts if Brexit goes badly. I think the issue with your analysis (and I’m not having a go here, just a bit of advice) is that you isolate one factor of many and (perhaps inadvertently) suggest it to be the only one at play. The frequently repeated “Tories will lose this seat when brexit goes badly” is rather simplistic. Fair point. Regarding this seat, I still think public sectorisation accounts for much of Labour's success here despite the affluence of the area. According to the BBC, Unilever was among the biggest employers here in 2001. I don't think that's true anymore. As for Brexit going badly, I've never said it will and hope it doesn't. However there are seats where the City is more important than others and some of these may turn on Boris if we don't have a deal. |
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hengo
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Post by hengo on Oct 1, 2020 15:42:14 GMT
I do think this constituency is also going Labour's way demographically speaking, albeit gradually. Wirral West stands out rather more as a "surprising" seat for them. I’m not sure where you get this from. I don’t see any evidence for it . There is no significant immigration. The constituency straddles the peninsula and so there have always been “natural“ Labour and “natural“ Tory areas -Deeside and Merseyside, but there are factors in each which, in my view make it perfectly possible that in future it will go either way. When Labour won the by election in 97 it was at the peak of Blair’s popularity , and I doubt if then , people would have expected it to survive a change in the national fortunes of the parties as it has. So I understand why it looks as if there is some general deep rooted phenomenon in this area which accounts for it. I don’t buy it. In fact I’m reasonably confident that all that would be needed for a Conservative victory here again would be a period of Labour government! I do think that there is a significant minority of people in the affluent parts who are Brexit sceptical, including many highly paid public sector workers, who have voted Labour in the recent general elections but whose long term reliability for Labour is highly doubtful. And the support in the less affluent parts is not as solid as it may appear either, as is clear from local government elections. |
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Post by jacoblamsden on Oct 1, 2020 16:01:02 GMT
It might change if the local Conservative party ever managed to attempt the slightest effort, and finally chose a better candidate. In 25 years I’ve only ever been canvassed ( in Heswall) by Labour and LibDems. Even so I suspect if the slippery Ben Chapman hadn’t stood down in the wake of the expenses scandal and been replaced by a local girl it would have reverted to the Conservatives then. There hasn’t been much demographic change here, and no real reason why it couldn’t . There is some of the middle class professional Labour vote we discussed elsewhere in Wirral, and Alison McGovern is pretty well liked. An interesting footnote about this constituency is the impact the pre ‘97 by election had on the subsequent education policy of the Labour Government. As this is one of two selective areas in Wirral, and the schools, both Grammar and “ Secondary Modern” are locally highly popular, it looked like this would be the dominant issue. However Blair himself gave assurances that the Grammar schools would be safe under Labour for as long as that was what their parents wanted. This despite Blunkett , as shadow education secretary, being committed to finally end them. He ( Blunkett) later, embarrassingly, had to claim that when he had said “ no more Grammar schools” to resounding cheers, what he had actually meant was no MORE Grammar schools, ie more than we already had. And subsequently the rules were constructed so that it was impossible for a local authority to reorganise on a comprehensive basis, as Wirral would most certainly have proposed when, shortly later, Labour gained control of the Council. As you are local, it would be interesting to get your take on whether Margaret Greenwood is popular in Wirral West. I've always thought Alison McGovern comes across well, but isn't Greenwood a different beast - very much on the left of the Labour party? From a distance, she seems a bizarre fit for a seat like Wirral West which is even more of an unlikely Labour seat than South. |
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hengo
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Post by hengo on Oct 1, 2020 16:32:00 GMT
Well among those I know in West Kirby and Hoylake she isn’t ! I share others puzzlement to be honest at the West Wirral position. But there as in South Wirral the moribund local party, despite having all the local councillors must be partly to blame. There seems among Wirral Conservatives to be far more vitality and activity in Wallasey, despite having little chance there. One of the oddities of this place is that while there are large numbers of people who you would imagine might become involved in politics on the Conservative side , very few do, and that is reflected in the calibre of the councillors..
Alison McGovern is indeed well liked , even among conservatives. Personally I find her emotionalism when speaking in the Commons irritating, but she has the reputation of being a good constituency MP. She certainly, together with her supporters worked hard to disassociate herself from Corbyn, and that worked for her I think.
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 1, 2020 16:40:14 GMT
It might change if the local Conservative party ever managed to attempt the slightest effort, and finally chose a better candidate. In 25 years I’ve only ever been canvassed ( in Heswall) by Labour and LibDems. Even so I suspect if the slippery Ben Chapman hadn’t stood down in the wake of the expenses scandal and been replaced by a local girl it would have reverted to the Conservatives then. There hasn’t been much demographic change here, and no real reason why it couldn’t . There is some of the middle class professional Labour vote we discussed elsewhere in Wirral, and Alison McGovern is pretty well liked. An interesting footnote about this constituency is the impact the pre ‘97 by election had on the subsequent education policy of the Labour Government. As this is one of two selective areas in Wirral, and the schools, both Grammar and “ Secondary Modern” are locally highly popular, it looked like this would be the dominant issue. However Blair himself gave assurances that the Grammar schools would be safe under Labour for as long as that was what their parents wanted. This despite Blunkett , as shadow education secretary, being committed to finally end them. He ( Blunkett) later, embarrassingly, had to claim that when he had said “ no more Grammar schools” to resounding cheers, what he had actually meant was no MORE Grammar schools, ie more than we already had. And subsequently the rules were constructed so that it was impossible for a local authority to reorganise on a comprehensive basis, as Wirral would most certainly have proposed when, shortly later, Labour gained control of the Council. As you are local, it would be interesting to get your take on whether Margaret Greenwood is popular in Wirral West. I've always thought Alison McGovern comes across well, but isn't Greenwood a different beast - very much on the left of the Labour party? From a distance, she seems a bizarre fit for a seat like Wirral West which is even more of an unlikely Labour seat than South. She's a good local MP and most voters haven't a clue whether she's on the left or right of the party. Often middle class local Labour parties can be more left wing. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 1, 2020 16:42:40 GMT
It might change if the local Conservative party ever managed to attempt the slightest effort, and finally chose a better candidate. In 25 years I’ve only ever been canvassed ( in Heswall) by Labour and LibDems. Even so I suspect if the slippery Ben Chapman hadn’t stood down in the wake of the expenses scandal and been replaced by a local girl it would have reverted to the Conservatives then. There hasn’t been much demographic change here, and no real reason why it couldn’t . There is some of the middle class professional Labour vote we discussed elsewhere in Wirral, and Alison McGovern is pretty well liked. An interesting footnote about this constituency is the impact the pre ‘97 by election had on the subsequent education policy of the Labour Government. As this is one of two selective areas in Wirral, and the schools, both Grammar and “ Secondary Modern” are locally highly popular, it looked like this would be the dominant issue. However Blair himself gave assurances that the Grammar schools would be safe under Labour for as long as that was what their parents wanted. This despite Blunkett , as shadow education secretary, being committed to finally end them. He ( Blunkett) later, embarrassingly, had to claim that when he had said “ no more Grammar schools” to resounding cheers, what he had actually meant was no MORE Grammar schools, ie more than we already had. And subsequently the rules were constructed so that it was impossible for a local authority to reorganise on a comprehensive basis, as Wirral would most certainly have proposed when, shortly later, Labour gained control of the Council. As you are local, it would be interesting to get your take on whether Margaret Greenwood is popular in Wirral West. I've always thought Alison McGovern comes across well, but isn't Greenwood a different beast - very much on the left of the Labour party? From a distance, she seems a bizarre fit for a seat like Wirral West which is even more of an unlikely Labour seat than South. I have a friend from West Kirby who is a member of the Labour Party. He’s from the right of the party. His view is that she is an effective campaigner and assiduous MP, despite her not being from his wing of the party. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 3, 2020 10:37:59 GMT
I do think this constituency is also going Labour's way demographically speaking, albeit gradually. Wirral West stands out rather more as a "surprising" seat for them. I’m not sure where you get this from. I don’t see any evidence for it . There is no significant immigration Not much non-white immigration, granted. But that's not the only form of demographic change. Basically, isn't this seat - as with others - becoming "Scouseified"? People from the city itself moving into nearby areas, many of these will be strong Labour voters. |
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hengo
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Post by hengo on Oct 3, 2020 12:24:05 GMT
I’m not sure where you get this from. I don’t see any evidence for it . There is no significant immigration Not much non-white immigration, granted. But that's not the only form of demographic change. Basically, isn't this seat - as with others - becoming "Scouseified"? People from the city itself moving into nearby areas, many of these will be strong Labour voters. Well, some for course, but not that significantly, I’d say. There will also be those who have moved to Deeside who were never really Labour types in Liverpool and more typical I suppose of other parts of the country where declining conservative votes in cities are balanced by decreased Labour support in prosperous suburbs. The legitimate question is why this hasn’t been more pronounced I suppose. I certainly wouldn’t expect the conservatives to recover here at the next election. My view though is that the labour vote isn’t anything like as solid here as it appears. But it will need a Labour Government for a period to trigger a reaction. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 28, 2021 20:36:20 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 22.1 % 53/650
Owner-occupied 79.0% 25/650
Private rented 10.4% 555/650
Social rented 9.4% 602/650
White 97.8% 141/650
Black 0.2% 534/650
Asian 1.1% 493/650
Managerial & professional 36.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 23.1%
Retired 19.8% 24/650
Degree level 30.7% 166/650
No qualifications 19.5% 474/650
Students 6.5% 369/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 77.5% 27/573
Private rented 12.8% 537/573
Social rented 9.8% 527/573
White 96.1%
Black 0.3%
Asian 1.9%
Managerial & professional 38.8% 131/573
Routine & Semi-routine 21.0% 392/573
Degree level 36.8% 154/573
No qualifications 14.5% 449/573
General Election 2019: Wirral South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alison McGovern 22,284 51.2 -6.0
Conservative Stewart Gardiner 16,179 37.2 -1.6
Liberal Democrats Christopher Carubia 2,917 6.7 +3.8
Brexit Party Martin Waring 1,219 2.8 New
Green Harry Gorman 948 2.2 +1.2
Lab Majority 6,105 14.0 -4.4
Turnout 43,547 76.0 -2.4
Labour hold
Swing 2.2 Lab to C
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Post by elinorhelyn on Dec 31, 2022 19:00:14 GMT
Where will Allison McGovern try to stand in next do you think?
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Dec 31, 2022 21:36:40 GMT
Where will Allison McGovern try to stand in next do you think? If Labour keep the "40% of current seat going into the new one" as the rule to define territorial claims (rule they had used with previous boundary changes), she must fight Justin Madders for Ellesmere Port and Bromborough. The part of the her constituency going into Wirral West is 39% |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 1, 2023 11:32:32 GMT
Well if it is 39%, its not so hard to see them waiving that rule if McGovern is really interested in going for that one. Plus the Wirral West incumbent Margaret Greenwood is over 20 years her senior and will be 65 in the event of a 2024 GE, its not impossible she may call it a day anyway.
And of course a smaller but still non-negligible part of the current Wirral South goes into the redrawn Birkenhead - Mick Whitley is even older than Greenwood despite being a first termer, and I expect party HQ would approve AM trying for that if he retires.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jan 1, 2023 11:57:17 GMT
Well if it is 39%, its not so hard to see them waiving that rule if McGovern is really interested in going for that one. Plus the Wirral West incumbent Margaret Greenwood is over 20 years her senior and will be 65 in the event of a 2024 GE, its not impossible she may call it a day anyway. And of course a smaller but still non-negligible part of the current Wirral South goes into the redrawn Birkenhead - Mick Whitley is even older than Greenwood despite being a first termer, and I expect party HQ would approve AM trying for that if he retires. More than waiving for a specific case, it would be easier and more "sellable" to just have a new rule this time using 35% threshold as territorial claim. So they can have a McGovern vs Greenwood selection (if Greenwood doesn't retire). Last time (2005-2010) when you had a part of your current seat going into a new but below the territorial claim threshold, open selections were conducted rather trigger ballots. Sharon Hodgson (then MP for Gateshead East and Washington West ) had to undergo an open selection process for thew new Washington and Sunderland West after losing the head to head with David Clelland for the new Gateshead (where the majority of her then constituency was being moved). Then Clelland retired.... I would think McGovern could win the open selection comfortably if one of the next door MPs stand down. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Jan 1, 2023 11:59:30 GMT
Well if it is 39%, its not so hard to see them waiving that rule if McGovern is really interested in going for that one. Plus the Wirral West incumbent Margaret Greenwood is over 20 years her senior and will be 65 in the event of a 2024 GE, its not impossible she may call it a day anyway. And of course a smaller but still non-negligible part of the current Wirral South goes into the redrawn Birkenhead - Mick Whitley is even older than Greenwood despite being a first termer, and I expect party HQ would approve AM trying for that if he retires. He won't want to retire in favour of her though, they're at completely opposite ends of the party |
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