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Post by MacShimidh on Jun 20, 2020 20:39:47 GMT
The smallest seat in Scotland is a left-winger’s paradise. It is an urban constituency, consisting in large part of a trendy, bohemian, university area. It is a young seat, with more than two-fifths of the population aged 18-35. It is one of Scotland’s most multicultural seats, being only 87% white. In 2016 it had an astronomically high Remain vote of 78% - the fifth-highest anywhere in the UK. Additionally, it also voted in favour of Scottish independence in 2014, albeit by a small margin. If ever there was a Scottish version of Islington North, Glasgow North must be it.
This seat can be roughly divided into two halves – those parts lying within Glasgow’s West End, and those parts lying without. The West End is a loosely defined area concentrated mainly around Argyle Street, Byres Road and Great Western Road. In recent decades it has become the most gentrified and over-priced area in the city. The West End almost feels like a separate city from Glasgow itself, and it is possible to live here and go for days without hearing a proper Glaswegian accent. For this reason, it is held in low regard by many “real” Glaswegians, who see it (somewhat fairly) as being full of pretentious students and outsiders. The West End is covered almost wholly by this seat, but there are some portions of it lying within Glasgow Central and Glasgow North West.
The University of Glasgow is the crown jewel of the West End, and it lies at the southern border of this seat next to the River Kelvin. This is part of the Hillhead ward, at one time the last redoubt of Glaswegian Conservatism but now a hotbed of student politics and an area of strength for the Greens. Although there are many trendy bars and restaurants in this area, the housing here is largely a bit crap, with some unscrupulous landlords taking advantage of clueless students. Coming west from University Avenue, we arrive at Partick, where the accommodation is better – Partick is famous for its iconic sandstone buildings. Whilst this is still a very studenty part of the West End, there are more professionals here than in Hillhead, making this a more politically diverse area. To the immediate north of Partick, nestled between Great Western Road and the Kelvin, lies the leafy, affluent neighbourhood of Kelvindale. Some of the streets here are among the most expensive in Scotland, and this is an area of strength for the Conservatives. Overall though, the West End is a staunchly left-wing area, with the SNP clearly in front of everyone else. Even most unionists will tend to stick with Labour rather than the Tories.
Going north from the Botanic Gardens, by the time we get to Maryhill Road the character of this constituency shifts quite noticeably. This part of Glasgow North – which features the areas of Maryhill and Summerston – is more traditionally working-class and stereotypically Glaswegian. Geographically, the main feature here is a grotty section of the Forth and Clyde Canal. Partick Thistle’s Firhill Stadium is also located here – a fair walk from Partick, mind. The brilliant comedy Still Game was filmed here, and although Maryhill and Summerston have historically had a bad reputation, the reality today is that they are about as safe and developed as anywhere else in Glasgow. Indeed, plenty of students live here for the cheaper accommodation. Somewhat surprisingly, the northernmost extremity of Glasgow North contains a substantial section of agriculture and has more farms than any other Glasgow seat. Before 2015, this northern half of the seat was far more monolithically Labour than the West End, and though they have since been usurped by the SNP, they still have substantial support here.
Despite being the successor of the seat that gave us George Galloway, Glasgow North’s representatives have been rather boring. Its first MP was Labour’s Ann McKechin, whose only claim to fame is that she served for a year as Miliband’s Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, before being replaced by fellow Glaswegian Margaret Curran. Her SNP successor, Patrick Grady, is similarly low-profile, being the Chief Whip of the SNP at Westminster – surely one of the easiest jobs in politics!
When we think of the Glasgow seats, we tend to think of Labour strongholds that fell to the SNP and are now somewhat marginal. This narrative broadly works for this seat, but there are some important footnotes. This was always Labour’s weakest seat in the city, and the Lib Dems put up very respectable showings back when they could count on the student vote. In 2005 and 2010, they were able to put this seat on the very edge of the playing field, although it would be a stretch to call the seat a marginal at that time. There is a case to be made that the SNP owe their success here to Lib Dem switchers even more so than Labour ones – the Lib Dems’ fall here in 2015 was even more dramatic than Labour’s. And unlike Labour, there seems no prospect of them ever getting back to where they were. This group of young, disaffected Lib Dems are sticking with the Nats and not coming back. This could be what saved Grady in 2017 when Labour made a strong resurgence.
The reasons for Labour’s recovery in this seat are threefold. Firstly, this is the sort of constituency where Corbyn and Corbynism went down well. As mentioned, the demographic similarities between this seat and Islington North are considerable. Secondly, Labour has produced a strong local candidate who stood here in 2017 and 2019. Even in 2019, Scottish Labour’s nadir, their vote here held up better than anywhere else in Scotland. Finally, the presence of the Greens here hurts the SNP, especially in 2017 when Patrick Harvie stood for parliament. The prospect of the Greens harming the SNP is often overblown, but this is one seat where it really could make a difference. At #92 on Labour's target list, the party does have better targets even within Glasgow. But this is a seat they will have to win back to become Scotland’s largest party again – and, probably, to win a majority at Westminster.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2020 23:02:15 GMT
I have to say MacShimidh that you might be new around here but your profiles are excellent. Looking forward to your guided tour around the rest of Scotland. |
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Post by Clark on Jun 21, 2020 20:39:23 GMT
Fantastic write up MacShimidh !
I had never actually appreciated the strength of the Lib Dem vote in this seat in 2005 and 2010. Clearly, they did well in 2005 due to many disillusioned Labour voters unhappy about the Iraq war and of course having a Scottish leader in Charles Kennedy helped them even more north of the border. But even in 2010, post Kennedy and up against a Scottish PM, they increased their share further to 31%. Perhaps Gordon Brown was still seen as 'New Labour' and 'Pro war' neither of which appealed to the student vote.
Yes, the SNP benefitted more from the Lib Dem collapse in 2015 more so than the Labour one in this particular seat, almost by 2:1 !
Was there a general anti-nationalist feeling in Scotland in 2017? Both Labour and the Tories surged by 7% each that year in this seat - I never could work out why the Tories did so well in 2017 in Scotland despite faltering south of the border...
Perhaps you could add a little of the remaining wards within the seat - Firhill, Hyndland, North Kelvin, Woodlands and Wyndford?
But all in all, an excellent piece!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2020 21:31:46 GMT
Was there a general anti-nationalist feeling in Scotland in 2017? Both Labour and the Tories surged by 7% each that year in this seat - I never could work out why the Tories did so well in 2017 in Scotland despite faltering south of the border... It has to be remembered that that election took place a month after the Scottish council elections, in which the Conservatives had effectively fought a Scotland-wide campaign on the basis that they were the only viable opposition to the SNP and the only way to stop another independence referendum. It's fair to say that Sturgeon's suggestion that there could be another independence referendum following the Leave vote annoyed some people, including some who had previously voted SNP. As for Labour, at least anecdotally, there's a section of Yes and sometimes-SNP voters that is anti-Conservative, but isn't really Nationalist, and in some cases may have seen pre-Corbyn Labour as a bit too traditional. That might even have included me once upon a time. That likely accounts for some who switched from SNP to Labour in 2017, and in some cases back to the SNP in 2019. |
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Post by Clark on Jun 21, 2020 22:12:05 GMT
Yeah I think the main reason Labour did so well in 2017 (well as in denying the Tories a majority) was because Corbyn fought a very good campaign and gave hope for the least well off in society - this was shown with turnout significantly up in poor seats like those in Liverpool and many in London making Labour majorities go in excess of 30,000 which has never been seen in modern times
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 21, 2020 22:19:11 GMT
Rubbish. The Labour campaign in 2017 was just as chaotic and unfocussed as 2019. The difference was that all the focus was on the Conservatives and they messed up their campaign even more.
Labour's failure to realise how it had been handed a gift in 2017 led to some massive and fatal mistakes in preparing (or failing to prepare) for 2019.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 21, 2020 22:24:54 GMT
Yeah I think the main reason Labour did so well in 2017 (well as in denying the Tories a majority) was because Corbyn fought a very good campaign and gave hope for the least well off in society - this was shown with turnout significantly up in poor seats like those in Liverpool and many in London making Labour majorities go in excess of 30,000 which has never been seen in modern times It was certainly a lot more coherent than in 2019. The manifesto was reasonably minimalist and was written by an individual which I think always works better than anything written by a committee, which always reads as if it's been written by a committee! Also Brexit was not much of a focus at that stage. There was an acceptance that we were leaving by most people but still some hope of a deal. By 2019 the FBPE loons had got their way and a second referendum was back on the agenda. The outcome was obvious to those of us outside the London remainer set. However I don't see Labour making much progress in Scotland while the independence issue predominates. Those who want that most of all will vote SNP. |
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Post by MacShimidh on Jun 22, 2020 16:24:46 GMT
Fantastic write up MacShimidh ! I had never actually appreciated the strength of the Lib Dem vote in this seat in 2005 and 2010. Clearly, they did well in 2005 due to many disillusioned Labour voters unhappy about the Iraq war and of course having a Scottish leader in Charles Kennedy helped them even more north of the border. But even in 2010, post Kennedy and up against a Scottish PM, they increased their share further to 31%. Perhaps Gordon Brown was still seen as 'New Labour' and 'Pro war' neither of which appealed to the student vote. Yes, the SNP benefitted more from the Lib Dem collapse in 2015 more so than the Labour one in this particular seat, almost by 2:1 ! Was there a general anti-nationalist feeling in Scotland in 2017? Both Labour and the Tories surged by 7% each that year in this seat - I never could work out why the Tories did so well in 2017 in Scotland despite faltering south of the border... Perhaps you could add a little of the remaining wards within the seat - Firhill, Hyndland, North Kelvin, Woodlands and Wyndford? But all in all, an excellent piece! Yes I think you're spot on about why the Lib Dems did well in this prior to 2015, and Charles Kennedy did indeed play a big role in that. Although he wasn't leader of the party for the 2010 election, he was the Rector of the University of Glasgow at that time, and a very active one at that. This doubtless drove up student turnout for the Lib Dems here. I remember there being a tremendous amount of goodwill towards him personally, even after the tuition fees debacle. Happy to expand on those extra wards: The section of the Woodlands in this seat contains some of the sketchiest areas of the West End in my opinion. Still overwhelmingly student dominated but a bit dodgy. Walking down West Prince's Street late at night is the only time I ever felt unsafe living in Glasgow! Hyndland is just a lovely place - still very much a part of the West End, but a fair distance from the hustle and bustle the main thoroughfares. Labour, the SNP and the Greens all have a very visible presence here, and I reckon there must be plenty of closet Tories here as well. North Kelvin is also a nice area but a difficult one to place - I would say it just falls outside of being in the West End, but it's a bit too leafy and pricey to be included within Maryhill or the surrounding areas. Wyndford is a pretty rough area that contains the only high rise flats in this seat if I remember correctly. Firhill is essentially an extension of Maryhill and is home to the huge student accommodation complex on Murano Street. |
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Post by MacShimidh on Jun 22, 2020 16:26:35 GMT
Yeah I think the main reason Labour did so well in 2017 (well as in denying the Tories a majority) was because Corbyn fought a very good campaign and gave hope for the least well off in society - this was shown with turnout significantly up in poor seats like those in Liverpool and many in London making Labour majorities go in excess of 30,000 which has never been seen in modern times It was certainly a lot more coherent than in 2019. The manifesto was reasonably minimalist and was written by an individual which I think always works better than anything written by a committee, which always reads as if it's been written by a committee! Also Brexit was not much of a focus at that stage. There was an acceptance that we were leaving by most people but still some hope of a deal. By 2019 the FBPE loons had got their way and a second referendum was back on the agenda. The outcome was obvious to those of us outside the London remainer set. However I don't see Labour making much progress in Scotland while the independence issue predominates. Those who want that most of all will vote SNP. Well, Labour made a fair bit of progress in 2017, although admittedly that was when the demand for indyref2 was at a low point. That being said, I don't think anyone expected Labour to do so well that year. It was pretty obvious after the locals that the Tories would do well, but Labour gaining six Scottish seats shocked everybody I think! |
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DrW
Conservative
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Post by DrW on Jun 22, 2020 17:29:47 GMT
Was there a general anti-nationalist feeling in Scotland in 2017? Both Labour and the Tories surged by 7% each that year in this seat - I never could work out why the Tories did so well in 2017 in Scotland despite faltering south of the border... It has to be remembered that that election took place a month after the Scottish council elections, in which the Conservatives had effectively fought a Scotland-wide campaign on the basis that they were the only viable opposition to the SNP and the only way to stop another independence referendum. It's fair to say that Sturgeon's suggestion that there could be another independence referendum following the Leave vote annoyed some people, including some who had previously voted SNP. As for Labour, at least anecdotally, there's a section of Yes and sometimes-SNP voters that is anti-Conservative, but isn't really Nationalist, and in some cases may have seen pre-Corbyn Labour as a bit too traditional. That might even have included me once upon a time. That likely accounts for some who switched from SNP to Labour in 2017, and in some cases back to the SNP in 2019. I think the amount of churn between 2015 and 2017 and 2019 in Scotland is understated, particularly when it comes to the Labour vote. My impression of the 2015 GE in Scotland is that while Labour haemorrhaged traditional working class voters who had voted “yes” (or had seriously considered doing so), they held onto their existing “No” voters and attracted tactical votes in some places from those who had previously voted Tory and Lib Dem, but wanted to keep out the SNP. These new voters were often middle class, strongly anti-independence, and found in places like East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh South - i.e. the prosperous suburbs of the main cities. As a result the profile of Labour’s Scottish voters in 2015 was more middle class and right wing than it had previously been. In 2017, however, middle class Unionists deserted en masse (except in Edinburgh) to the Tories. I get the impression that firmly Unionist working class voters may also have departed, particularly those who voted to leave the EU. In their place, though, Labour obtained as you say the votes of those who may have voted “Yes” but put socialism (or perhaps more simply left wing idealism) before independence. Some of their traditional working class base may have returned as well. So Labour’s voters were much more left wing, pro-independence and perhaps slightly less middle class - and in any event, a different type of middle class - than two years previously. As for 2019...while I’ve not dissected the innards on the face of it the progressive pro-independence types went back to the SNP, the middle class No voters didn’t come back, and so the party is left with “Labour till I die” types, some tactical voters and the rump of leftish “No” supporters. |
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Post by aidanthomson on Jun 23, 2020 17:54:49 GMT
A very enjoyable read, of a seat that I know (or knew) fairly well, as I went to school there. A few observations: The West End almost feels like a separate city from Glasgow itself, and it is possible to live here and go for days without hearing a proper Glaswegian accent. For this reason, it is held in low regard by many “real” Glaswegians, who see it (somewhat fairly) as being full of pretentious students and outsiders. On the subject of accents, the West End (and this seat) also includes Kelvinside, whose accent is regarded by many as the epitome of 'posh Glasgow'. Admittedly, it's frequently caricatured ('Kelvinsayde', where 'sex' are what the coal comes in, etc.), but in its own way it's no less characteristically Glaswegian an accent than those of more working-class parts of the city. The University of Glasgow is the crown jewel of the West End, and it lies at the southern border of this seat next to the River Kelvin. This is part of the Hillhead ward, at one time the last redoubt of Glaswegian Conservatism but now a hotbed of student politics and an area of strength for the Greens. Although there are many trendy bars and restaurants in this area, the housing here is largely a bit crap, with some unscrupulous landlords taking advantage of clueless students. The names of some of the old Scottish constituencies were really unhelpful. The Glasgow Hillhead that the Tories held until 1982 didn't include any of the current Hillhead ward, all of which was in Glasgow Kelvingrove. The Hillhead seat included areas like Kelvindale, Jordanhill, Scotstoun, west Partick and Hyndland; Kelvingrove included Hillhead(!), east Partick, north Kelvinside, Woodlands, Woodside and Anderston. Coming west from University Avenue, we arrive at Partick, where the accommodation is better – Partick is famous for its iconic sandstone buildings. Whilst this is still a very studenty part of the West End, there are more professionals here than in Hillhead, making this a more politically diverse area. To the immediate north of Partick, nestled between Great Western Road and the Kelvin, lies the leafy, affluent neighbourhood of Kelvindale. Some of the streets here are among the most expensive in Scotland, and this is an area of strength for the Conservatives. Traditionally Partick (by which I'm meaning the area on or immediately around Dumbarton Road) was one of the more working-class areas of the seat, though it's gentrified a lot. The sandstone architecture there is striking, but not quite as grand as in Hyndland or Dowanhill, where there are some very grand apartments and townhouses. Going north from the Botanic Gardens, by the time we get to Maryhill Road the character of this constituency shifts quite noticeably. This part of Glasgow North – which features the areas of Maryhill and Summerston – is more traditionally working-class and stereotypically Glaswegian. Geographically, the main feature here is a grotty section of the Forth and Clyde Canal. Partick Thistle’s Firhill Stadium is also located here – a fair walk from Partick, mind. The brilliant comedy Still Game was filmed here, and although Maryhill and Summerston have historically had a bad reputation, the reality today is that they are about as safe and developed as anywhere else in Glasgow. Maryhill was also originally the location of the police station in Taggart, although the purview of the Maryhill Police in Taggart was exceptionally wide, covering most of north Glasgow as well as suburbs like Bearsden and Milngavie! One other statistic of note concerns religion. Glasgow North is 18% Church of Scotland, 20% Roman Catholic and 41% no religion; these are a lot closer to the figures for Glasgow Kelvin, which includes most of the West End (15%, 17% and 45% respectively) than to those for Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn (23%, 30% and 29% respectively). Religious denomination isn't a significant determining factor in Scottish electoral politics these days (thank goodness), given the secularisation of the last few decades, but in Glasgow it used to be. It's certainly striking how, back in the 1970s, the Tories never came close to winning any working-class wards in Maryhill, but could win places like Scotstoun or Partick, where there was a higher concentration of working-class Protestant voters. |
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Post by Clark on Jun 23, 2020 19:19:15 GMT
I always find it quite amusing that many Rangers fans ridicule the SNP and hale the Union flag, yet Govan (home of Rangers) is one of the weakest Conservative areas in Glasgow and is one of the strongest SNP!
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bore
Labour
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Post by bore on Jun 23, 2020 23:57:49 GMT
I always find it quite amusing that many Rangers fans ridicule the SNP and hale the Union flag, yet Govan (home of Rangers) is one of the weakest Conservative areas in Glasgow and is one of the strongest SNP! A point not lost on Statement FC, as the following paragraph from one of their post 2016 Scottish cup final meltdowns makes clear: |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 10, 2020 5:27:13 GMT
The Ugly Sisters drag in their support from all across Scotland, mind. Gloryhunting is a powerful thing.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 29, 2021 12:11:55 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 11.1% 588/650
Owner-occupied 43.9% 611/650
Private rented 25.4% 69/650
Social rented 28.9% 59/650
White 86.6% 487/650
Black 2.3% 164/650
Asian 9.3% 132/650
Managerial & professional 32.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 18.5%
Degree level 40.6% 45/650
No qualifications 19.6% 472/650
Students 25.0% 12/650
General election 2019: Glasgow North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Patrick Grady 16,982 46.9 +9.3
Labour Pam Duncan-Glancy 11,381 31.4 -3.0
Conservative Tony Curtis 3,806 10.5 -4.2
Liberal Democrats Andrew Chamberlain 2,394 6.6 +3.2
Scottish Green Cass McGregor 1,308 3.6 -6.1
Brexit Party Dionne Cocozza 320 0.9 N/A
SNP Majority 5,601 15.5 +12.4
Turnout 36,191 63.3 +1.2
SNP hold
Swing 6.2 Lab to SNP
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jan 29, 2021 22:36:54 GMT
I always find it quite amusing that many Rangers fans ridicule the SNP and hale the Union flag, yet Govan (home of Rangers) is one of the weakest Conservative areas in Glasgow and is one of the strongest SNP! Plenty of Rangers supporters vote SNP. Don’t be fooled by a few knuckledraggers. |
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Post by michaelarden on Feb 16, 2021 19:53:50 GMT
Great profile - but the seat is also arguably the successor to Hillhead and the Lib Dems had post Roy Jenkins strength in local government in Kelvingrove/Kelvindale - their collapse hear post coalition is similar (but not as marked) to that in Edinburgh South (which shares many of the characteristics).
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