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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 15, 2020 14:48:04 GMT
Recently I saw the leader of B&D council repeat the often made claim that if the BNP had stood a full slate they would have won control of the council in 2006. I wondered just how much truth there is in this given just how much attention the BNP challenge received at the time and over the next four years. The BNP stood 13 candidates in 7 of the 17 wards and 12 were elected. Does anyone have a good projection model for how they might have done with candidates in the other ten? The results can be found at: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Barking_and_Dagenham_London_Borough_Council_election |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2020 14:54:43 GMT
Recently I saw the leader of B&D council repeat the often made claim that if the BNP had stood a full slate they would have won control of the council in 2006. I wondered just how much truth there is in this given just how much attention the BNP challenge received at the time and over the next four years. The BNP stood 13 candidates in 7 of the 17 wards and 12 were elected. Does anyone have a good projection model for how they might have done with candidates in the other ten? The results can be found at: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Barking_and_Dagenham_London_Borough_Council_electionIt isn't just a question of whether they had candidates in the other 10 wards but had they put up full slates in those wards where they did win seats. It looks very like they could have expected to win the third seats in Alibon, Goresbrook, Mayesbrook etc. Many of the wards they left uncontested would be pretty hopeless such as Abbey, Longbridge, probably Gascoigne, but there were some others where they could have done well - Heath, River, Thames etc. The result in Village though shows they wouldn't have had it all their own way with more candidates. It's not impossible that a full slate there could have resulted in Labour winning all three seats |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 15, 2020 17:35:44 GMT
BNP results from the 2008 Assembly list vote were
Mayesbrook 38.5% (2)
Alibon 38.2% (2)
Goresbrook 34.4% (2)
Parsloes 34.0% (2)
Valence 31.7% (2)
Village 31.1% (1)
Heath 30.6%
River 29.6%
Eastbury 29.3% (1)
Eastbrook 27.1%
Becontree 26.4%
Thames 26.0%
Whalebone 21.1%
Chadwell Heath 18.3%
Longbridge 16.3%
Gascoigne 15.0%
Abbey 7.7%
(numbers in brackets are where the BNP won councillors)
So a clean sweep of everything down to Eastbury would be needed for an outright majority.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 15, 2020 17:38:34 GMT
In order to be able to get close to answering that question, I think it would be necessary to have detailed information about who the BNP voters voted for, as well as the BNP candidates. A BNP plumper might have voted for 3 BNP candidates, but a BNP-Lab-Lab voter might have voted for the BNP only as a token protest vote, rather than as a first preference.
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Post by boogieeck on Jun 15, 2020 18:35:37 GMT
The electorate are very good at deploying the wisdom of an anthill to almost but not quite achieve a goal they do not want for the purposes If putting the wind up the establishment
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 3, 2020 23:26:33 GMT
There were all manner of reports at the time including of angry voters frustrated that their preferred party wasn't standing in their ward.
One thing does stand out in the results and that's there was no obvious substitute party or independent getting lots of spare votes. I suspect the BNP voters mainly plumped.
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