Surrey Heath

[robertwaller]

We won't really have started 400 constituencies as there are other threads like this one, which only indicates intention not achievement, but I plan to take this one for my next.

[robertwaller]

There is indeed heathland in the north-western corner of Surrey; one passes through it as one leaves London on the M3 motorway, soldiers exercise on it near Chobham and Bisley, which is the heart of rifle shooting in England, and in places one can forget that this is actually in the heart of the Home Counties. In fact, though, this constituency is thoroughly urban, or at least suburban, as far as its electorate is concerned. The seat is based on the communities of Camberley and Frimley, with ballast provided by smaller places such as Bagshot and Windlesham, site of some of the most expensive houses in the country, the property of such as Arab sheikhs and Brian May, astrophysicist and Queen guitarist. This sandy-soiled territory is very heavily owner-occupied (77% in 2011, 46th highest in the UK), middle class (23rd in higher managers), highly affluent and materialistic (the seat ranks in the top five for two and more cars, and indeed for three or more cars per household). There is a strong military influence – the seat is sandwiched between Sandhurst and Aldershot and includes the once notorious Deepcut barracks, now a housing estate. There is little unemployment (only 1.0% long term unemployed in the 2011 census figures by constituency). All this adds up to a recipe for conservatism, and Conservatism. In fact it was claimed in 2014 to be the most right wing constituency in Britain based on responses to the British Election Study, on the basis of their views favouring low taxes and government spending cuts (for those interested the most left wing constituency was said to be Glasgow North East).

Yet it is not quite so monolithic as may be thought. Under the first MP for this seat after it was created in 1997, Nick Hawkins, the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats declined to 10,000 in 2001. In 2004 Hawkins was deselected, and since 2005 Surrey Heath has re-elected Tory high flyer Michael Gove. In 2019 his majority was 18,349, but the Liberal Democrats did advance substantially as in several other Surrey seats, in this case improving from under 11% to over 27%. Nor are the Conservatives rock solid on Surrey Heath council, which is all included in the constituency (along with three wards around Ash in Guildford borough). In May 2019, the most recent tranche of local authority elections before the December general election (and before the suspension of elections due to the Covid crisis), they nearly lost control of Surrey Heath council. The Liberal Democrats topped the poll in Bagshot, Frimley Green and Heatherside (a large sprawl of 1960s/70s private housing), and too two of the three ward seats in Mytchett & Deepcut. Labour finished top in Old Dean, the only real 'council estate ward' in the seat, on the other (north) side of the A30 from the bulk of Camberley. Independents returned four councillors including all three in Windlesham & Chobham. Finally, the Green party won two out of three in Lightwater. When two Conservative councillors in Camberley resigned the whip in January 2020 the council officially passed to no overall control.

No one seriously thinks Michael Gove will be in danger of losing his place in the House of Commons, though. When it comes to electing a government of the United Kingdom, Surrey Heath’s sense of self-interest should keep the Conservatives safe. In 2019, Brexit was the dominant issue, and this seat had voted around the average fairly even split in 2016. On almost every other indicator it is well to the Conservative end of the spectrum. Other parties, principally the Liberal Democrats, may fancy some target shooting here - but it would be at very long range.

2011 Census
Owner-occupied 76.6% 46/650
Private rented 11.7% 477
Social rented 10.0% 582
White 91.1% 413
Black 1.0% 266
Asian 5.5% 203
Managerial & professional 43.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 17.0%
Degree level 33.3% 115
No qualifications 15.9% 590
Students 5.9% 502
Age 65+ 16.7% 335



General Election 2019: Surrey Heath

Party Candidate Votes % ±

Conservative Michael Gove 34,358 58.6 -5.6
Liberal Democrats Alasdair Pinkerton 16,009 27.3 +16.4
Labour Brahma Mohanty 5,407 9.2 -11.8
Green Sharon Galliford 2,252 3.8 -0.1
UKIP David Roe 628 1.1 N/A

C Majority 18,349 31.3 -11.8

Turnout 58,654 72.1 +0.5

Conservative hold Swing 11.0 C to LD

[European Lefty]

Is there a particular reason for the Labour strength in that one ward? Or is it a case of a local personality winning regardless of the attached party label?

[Pete Whitehead]

The Old Dean is a pretty rough council estate

[bjornhattan]

Jun 15, 2020 15:27:20 GMT European Lefty said:

Is there a particular reason for the Labour strength in that one ward? Or is it a case of a local personality winning regardless of the attached party label?

It's a very working-class area, especially when compared to the rest of the constituency.

[robertwaller]

Yes, I forgot initially to explain Old Dean, which is a lapse; I was trying to avoid copying too much from my previous edition entries ... now included, thanks for pointing this out.

[neilm]

Hawkins had some problems after he left his wife and the initial attempt to deselect him in 2000/1 failed because Michael Ancram intervened. A whole host of now MPs and ministers applied for the seat when he eventually got the boot. CCHQ apparently asked him to look for another seat but- after suggesting that the association chairman had 'imported' Eastern Europeans- he got the boot from the front bench and, presumably, any likelihood of a peerage (he'd already decided not to look for another seat and return to the bar).

The claim about Eastern Europeans (in this case, Bosnians) was referenced in the media at the time and, if you know any of the parties involved, you'll be able to make up your own mind on how much truth there is in it.

[where2travel]

I lived in Ash Vale for about 6 months (which did happen to overlap with a General Election). While nice enough, it did feel like a place out on a limb. It's in this constituency but feels away from the main part of it, it's part of Guildford Borough Council which feels miles away, it has "Hampshire" on the address (presumably because the postal town is Aldershot), but is somehow part of Surrey. It's also just a couple of miles from each of Farnborough and Aldershot, but presumably doesn't want to feel too closely linked to either of those either.

The main blessing for such a small place was the train station with direct trains to Waterloo in about 45 minutes or so.

[owainsutton]

Jun 16, 2020 15:08:47 GMT where2travel said:

it has "Hampshire" on the address (presumably because the postal town is Aldershot)

Quibble: postal addresses do not include counties, only post towns. Adding the county on is a nostalgic affectation masquerading as tradition (IMO!).

A common interaction around here:

"Altrincham isn't in Cheshire."
"Yes it is, it has a Warrington post code."
"Warrington isn't in Cheshire, either."

[bsjmcr]

This appears to be a very strangely shaped area, with that tail hanging off, almost a US-style gerrymander if it wasn't so universally strong for Gove. Was it always like this, or was that tail added later? And Guildford itself also appears to be very badly shaped.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 16, 2020 20:30:00 GMT bsjmcr said:

This appears to be a very strangely shaped area, with that tail hanging off, almost a US-style gerrymander if it wasn't so universally strong for Gove. Was it always like this, or was that tail added later? And Guildford itself also appears to be very badly shaped.

The Guildford wards were added in 1997 when the seat lost Egham (and was renamed from NW Surrey). Although in Guildford borough I believe they have never been in the Guildford constituency having previously been part of the Woking seat (and Farnham prior to that and Chertsey prior to that). They seem like a better fir though than Egham as the discussion above indicates they are very much part of the 'Greater Aldershot' area as Camberley is also

[where2travel]

Jun 16, 2020 20:52:19 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jun 16, 2020 20:30:00 GMT bsjmcr said:

This appears to be a very strangely shaped area, with that tail hanging off, almost a US-style gerrymander if it wasn't so universally strong for Gove. Was it always like this, or was that tail added later? And Guildford itself also appears to be very badly shaped.

The Guildford wards were added in 1997 when the seat lost Egham (and was renamed from NW Surrey). Although in Guildford borough I believe they have never been in the Guildford constituency having previously been part of the Woking seat (and Farnham prior to that and Chertsey prior to that). They seem like a better fir though than Egham as the discussion above indicates they are very much part of the 'Greater Aldershot' area as Camberley is also

I think Tongham (the very southern part of Surrey Heath now) may have previously been in the Guildford constituency, but as you say Ash/Ash Vale were certainly in Woking (pre-1997).