Post by Robert Waller on Jun 15, 2020 14:48:12 GMT
There is indeed heathland in the north-western corner of Surrey; one passes through it as one leaves London on the M3 motorway, soldiers exercise on it near Chobham and Bisley, which is the heart of rifle shooting in England, and in places one can forget that this is actually in the heart of the Home Counties. In fact, though, this constituency is thoroughly urban, or at least suburban, as far as its electorate is concerned. The seat is based on the communities of Camberley and Frimley, with ballast provided by smaller places such as Bagshot and Windlesham, site of some of the most expensive houses in the country, the property of such as Arab sheikhs and Brian May, astrophysicist and Queen guitarist. This sandy-soiled territory is very heavily owner-occupied (77% in 2011, 46th highest in the UK), middle class (23rd in higher managers), highly affluent and materialistic (the seat ranks in the top five for two and more cars, and indeed for three or more cars per household). There is a strong military influence – the seat is sandwiched between Sandhurst and Aldershot and includes the once notorious Deepcut barracks, now a housing estate. There is little unemployment (only 1.0% long term unemployed in the 2011 census figures by constituency). All this adds up to a recipe for conservatism, and Conservatism. In fact it was claimed in 2014 to be the most right wing constituency in Britain based on responses to the British Election Study, on the basis of their views favouring low taxes and government spending cuts (for those interested the most left wing constituency was said to be Glasgow North East).
Yet it is not quite so monolithic as may be thought. Under the first MP for this seat after it was created in 1997, Nick Hawkins, the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats declined to 10,000 in 2001. In 2004 Hawkins was deselected, and since 2005 Surrey Heath has re-elected Tory high flyer Michael Gove. In 2019 his majority was 18,349, but the Liberal Democrats did advance substantially as in several other Surrey seats, in this case improving from under 11% to over 27%. Nor are the Conservatives rock solid on Surrey Heath council, which is all included in the constituency (along with three wards around Ash in Guildford borough). In May 2019, the most recent tranche of local authority elections before the December general election (and before the suspension of elections due to the Covid crisis), they nearly lost control of Surrey Heath council. The Liberal Democrats topped the poll in Bagshot, Frimley Green and Heatherside (a large sprawl of 1960s/70s private housing), and too two of the three ward seats in Mytchett & Deepcut. Labour finished top in Old Dean, the only real 'council estate ward' in the seat, on the other (north) side of the A30 from the bulk of Camberley. Independents returned four councillors including all three in Windlesham & Chobham. Finally, the Green party won two out of three in Lightwater. When two Conservative councillors in Camberley resigned the whip in January 2020 the council officially passed to no overall control.
No one seriously thinks Michael Gove will be in danger of losing his place in the House of Commons, though. When it comes to electing a government of the United Kingdom, Surrey Heath’s sense of self-interest should keep the Conservatives safe. In 2019, Brexit was the dominant issue, and this seat had voted around the average fairly even split in 2016. On almost every other indicator it is well to the Conservative end of the spectrum. Other parties, principally the Liberal Democrats, may fancy some target shooting here - but it would be at very long range.
2011 Census
Owner-occupied 76.6% 46/650
Private rented 11.7% 477
Social rented 10.0% 582
White 91.1% 413
Black 1.0% 266
Asian 5.5% 203
Managerial & professional 43.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 17.0%
Degree level 33.3% 115
No qualifications 15.9% 590
Students 5.9% 502
Age 65+ 16.7% 335
2021 Census
Owner occupied 75.0% 54/573
Private rented 14.7% 451/573
Social rented 10.3% 506/573
White 86.2%
Black 1.5%
Asian 8.1%
Managerial & professional 43.7% 51/573
Routine & Semi-routine 16.7% 495/573
Degree level 38.2% 129/573
No qualifications 13.5% 494/573
General Election 2019: Surrey Heath
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Michael Gove 34,358 58.6 -5.6
Liberal Democrats Alasdair Pinkerton 16,009 27.3 +16.4
Labour Brahma Mohanty 5,407 9.2 -11.8
Green Sharon Galliford 2,252 3.8 -0.1
UKIP David Roe 628 1.1 N/A
C Majority 18,349 31.3 -11.8
Turnout 58,654 72.1 +0.5
Conservative hold Swing 11.0 C to LD
Yet it is not quite so monolithic as may be thought. Under the first MP for this seat after it was created in 1997, Nick Hawkins, the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats declined to 10,000 in 2001. In 2004 Hawkins was deselected, and since 2005 Surrey Heath has re-elected Tory high flyer Michael Gove. In 2019 his majority was 18,349, but the Liberal Democrats did advance substantially as in several other Surrey seats, in this case improving from under 11% to over 27%. Nor are the Conservatives rock solid on Surrey Heath council, which is all included in the constituency (along with three wards around Ash in Guildford borough). In May 2019, the most recent tranche of local authority elections before the December general election (and before the suspension of elections due to the Covid crisis), they nearly lost control of Surrey Heath council. The Liberal Democrats topped the poll in Bagshot, Frimley Green and Heatherside (a large sprawl of 1960s/70s private housing), and too two of the three ward seats in Mytchett & Deepcut. Labour finished top in Old Dean, the only real 'council estate ward' in the seat, on the other (north) side of the A30 from the bulk of Camberley. Independents returned four councillors including all three in Windlesham & Chobham. Finally, the Green party won two out of three in Lightwater. When two Conservative councillors in Camberley resigned the whip in January 2020 the council officially passed to no overall control.
No one seriously thinks Michael Gove will be in danger of losing his place in the House of Commons, though. When it comes to electing a government of the United Kingdom, Surrey Heath’s sense of self-interest should keep the Conservatives safe. In 2019, Brexit was the dominant issue, and this seat had voted around the average fairly even split in 2016. On almost every other indicator it is well to the Conservative end of the spectrum. Other parties, principally the Liberal Democrats, may fancy some target shooting here - but it would be at very long range.
2011 Census
Owner-occupied 76.6% 46/650
Private rented 11.7% 477
Social rented 10.0% 582
White 91.1% 413
Black 1.0% 266
Asian 5.5% 203
Managerial & professional 43.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 17.0%
Degree level 33.3% 115
No qualifications 15.9% 590
Students 5.9% 502
Age 65+ 16.7% 335
2021 Census
Owner occupied 75.0% 54/573
Private rented 14.7% 451/573
Social rented 10.3% 506/573
White 86.2%
Black 1.5%
Asian 8.1%
Managerial & professional 43.7% 51/573
Routine & Semi-routine 16.7% 495/573
Degree level 38.2% 129/573
No qualifications 13.5% 494/573
General Election 2019: Surrey Heath
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Michael Gove 34,358 58.6 -5.6
Liberal Democrats Alasdair Pinkerton 16,009 27.3 +16.4
Labour Brahma Mohanty 5,407 9.2 -11.8
Green Sharon Galliford 2,252 3.8 -0.1
UKIP David Roe 628 1.1 N/A
C Majority 18,349 31.3 -11.8
Turnout 58,654 72.1 +0.5
Conservative hold Swing 11.0 C to LD
