Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
Jun 10, 2020 16:20:28 GMT
AdminSTB, YL, and 9 more like this
Post by Robert Waller on Jun 10, 2020 16:20:28 GMT
I have been contacted by MacShimidh, who has volunteered to start this thread, as follows:
The Highlands have for centuries been perceived as fundamentally different from the rest of Scotland. But what is it that drives this perception nowadays? Are the Highlands more backwards than anywhere else in the country? You wouldn’t guess it by looking at this seat. It is as highly educated as anywhere else, and it is substantially healthier than the country as a whole, according to 2011 census figures. Language is not a differentiating factor, as Gaelic is no longer widely spoken in this seat. Demographically, the only substantive differences between this seat and others in Scotland is that it is older and whiter than the national average.
Politically too, this seat has little to distinguish it from the rest of Scotland. In both 2014 and 2016, the Yes vote and the Leave vote, respectively, were slightly higher than elsewhere in the country, though nothing to write home about. Similarly, the SNP and Tory vote shares at the last couple of elections have been largely in line with the national figures. Demographically and politically, this seat does not sit comfortably within the mythos of the “Celtic Fringe,” and in many ways, it is as representative and even as unremarkable as any in Scotland.
I won’t go into too much detail about this seat’s antecedents, as it can be difficult to keep track of the shifting boundaries in the Highland seats. I could go into vast detail about many of the interesting results and candidates associated with this area. For the sake of simplicity though, I will only focus on the trends from this century. Almost all of the current INBS was covered by Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber, a marginal Labour seat represented by now-MSP David Stewart. Only western Inverness was not covered by that seat, going into Ross, Skye and Inverness West, a Lib Dem stronghold represented by the late Charles Kennedy.
INBS is a gargantuan seat; the fourth largest in the UK. But don’t be fooled – the electorate here is highly urban, with more than half living in Inverness itself. Inverness is a small city situated at the mouth of the River Ness and sitting at the eastern edge of the Beauly Firth. The self-proclaimed “capital of the Highlands,” Inverness is by far the largest settlement within the Highland council and, despite its reputation as a sleepy backwater, has been cited as one of the fastest-growing cities in Europe. There is a burgeoning pharmaceutical industry within the city, and new suburban developments are constantly popping up. Of course, things are not all rosy, and there are many areas of deprivation within the city – to give just one example, the central Merkinch area was recently found to be within the top 10 most deprived in Scotland.
Politically, Inverness at the turn of this century was something of a three-way marginal, between the Lib Dems, Labour and Nats. These days, however, the SNP dominate with the Tories a distant second. Of course, the Lib Dems and Labour still have some strength in certain wards (for instance, the Lib Dems still do well in Inverness West, Labour in Inverness Central), but nothing as compared to a decade ago. Supposedly, the SNP are bolstered by the fact that Inverness itself voted Yes in 2014. Whilst I’ve never seen any hard figures to back this up, I find it easy enough to believe.
To the immediate south of Inverness, we come to Loch Ness and the Great Glen. The opposite sides of this loch could hardly be more different. The eastern side is sparsely populated, and crofting is still practised to some degree here, with renewable energy making a huge impact on the Moandliath mountain range. But on the western side lie the absolute tourist-traps of Drumnadrochit and Fort Augustus. Both pretty enough villages, but their populations swell to bursting during the summer and they are filled to the brim with “Nessie” tat. The SNP and the Tories run each other very close indeed in this part of the constituency.
If we turn our attention to the north-east of the seat now, we come to the historic royal burgh of Nairn. This is today a pretty little seaside town, known for its golf courses and beaches. Historically, Nairn was a fishing village, and this history would suggest that it was the most Brexity part of this constituency. In general, politically speaking, it does bear more of a resemblance to the neighbouring Moray constituency than it does to the rest of INBS – it has had a long history of flirting with the Nats, before becoming very fertile ground indeed for the Tories over the last decade. So, whilst Nairn was the epicentre of Nat support in the constituency until very recently, it is now hotly contested between them and the Tories.
The ward of Badenoch and Strathspey makes up the southern half of this constituency. With Badenoch lying to the west and Strathspey to the east, this is a very sparsely populated area, covered almost entirely by the Cairngorms National Park. There are still some notable places here though. Within Badenoch, there are the villages of Kingussie and Newtonmore, with Dalwhinnie (and its wonderful distillery) lying at the southern extremity of the seat next to Loch Ericht. All these villages are pleasant but not overwhelmingly affluent. Aviemore has the opposite problem. It is wealthy but the main thoroughfare makes it look like a dump – it resembles a run-down American-style ski resort, which is really what it is. I would make an educated guess that this part of the ward leans SNP.
The planned town of Grantown-on-Spey is the principal town in Strathspey. Along with the villages of Boat of Garten, Carrbridge, and Nethy Bridge, this is by far the most affluent area of INBS, as well as being the oldest, and very popular with English retirees. This area is probably most famous for the historic steam railway that is still operational, and of course, Strathspey is known for its whiskies – but sadly all the good distilleries are over the border in Moray!
INBS’s inaugural MP was a young Danny Alexander. An MP at 33, Alexander rapidly rose through the ranks of the Lib Dems, writing their manifesto for the 2010 general election. Upon the formation of the coalition (where he was instrumental in convincing Clegg to join with the Tories), Alexander served for less than a month as Secretary of State for Scotland, before the resignation of David Laws resulted in him being appointed Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He thus became a member of “The Quad,” along with Cameron, Clegg and Osborne, setting the direction of policy for the coalition.
Alexander was very much on the right of the Lib Dems, and when their political opponents tried to tar the Lib Dems as being closet Tories, they likely had people like Alexander in mind. After the independence referendum, it soon became obvious that the SNP would do very well indeed, and that they would be targeting this seat for a high-profile scalp. Although Alexander’s share of the vote held up reasonably well (probably a futile tactical effort by unionists to keep the SNP out), the sheer number of Labour-to-SNP switchers was too much for him. Ever since Alexander’s demise, the Lib Dems have completely collapsed in this seat – they suffered a catastrophic drop in support in 2017 and went backwards again in 2019. Whilst they still have some relative strength in the other two Highland seats, I really can’t see a way back for them here.
Alexander’s nationalist successor is Drew Hendry, the former leader of the Highland council. He has ensconced himself very strongly indeed within Inverness itself, whilst still doing very respectably in the rest of the seat. In 2017, though, Hendry had a bit of a scare himself, when the Tories came from nearly losing their deposit to within 10 points of beating him – a truly extraordinary result. Labour also had something of a mini-revival in 2017, but two years later Hendry would be back on top by some margin, as Labour collapsed again and the Tories went nowhere.
To conclude, what are the chances of the SNP losing this seat? As I said, the Lib Dems now seem dead in this seat, and Labour have come within two points of losing their deposit in two of the last three elections. I have often seen Tories online bigging this up as a target seat. The last decade of Scottish politics teaches us to never say never, but they will be hard-pressed to ever gain this seat barring an SNP meltdown. Again, this is an urban seat first and foremost, and whilst the Tories have massively improved over the last five years, they are still a very distant second within Inverness itself, where more than half the votes are. To win this seat, they would have to dominate in the rural areas whilst closing the gap in Inverness. Given the Conservative Party’s current direction of travel, I just can’t see that happening. As I said at the beginning, this seat is not so different from Scotland as a whole.
The Highlands have for centuries been perceived as fundamentally different from the rest of Scotland. But what is it that drives this perception nowadays? Are the Highlands more backwards than anywhere else in the country? You wouldn’t guess it by looking at this seat. It is as highly educated as anywhere else, and it is substantially healthier than the country as a whole, according to 2011 census figures. Language is not a differentiating factor, as Gaelic is no longer widely spoken in this seat. Demographically, the only substantive differences between this seat and others in Scotland is that it is older and whiter than the national average.
Politically too, this seat has little to distinguish it from the rest of Scotland. In both 2014 and 2016, the Yes vote and the Leave vote, respectively, were slightly higher than elsewhere in the country, though nothing to write home about. Similarly, the SNP and Tory vote shares at the last couple of elections have been largely in line with the national figures. Demographically and politically, this seat does not sit comfortably within the mythos of the “Celtic Fringe,” and in many ways, it is as representative and even as unremarkable as any in Scotland.
I won’t go into too much detail about this seat’s antecedents, as it can be difficult to keep track of the shifting boundaries in the Highland seats. I could go into vast detail about many of the interesting results and candidates associated with this area. For the sake of simplicity though, I will only focus on the trends from this century. Almost all of the current INBS was covered by Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber, a marginal Labour seat represented by now-MSP David Stewart. Only western Inverness was not covered by that seat, going into Ross, Skye and Inverness West, a Lib Dem stronghold represented by the late Charles Kennedy.
INBS is a gargantuan seat; the fourth largest in the UK. But don’t be fooled – the electorate here is highly urban, with more than half living in Inverness itself. Inverness is a small city situated at the mouth of the River Ness and sitting at the eastern edge of the Beauly Firth. The self-proclaimed “capital of the Highlands,” Inverness is by far the largest settlement within the Highland council and, despite its reputation as a sleepy backwater, has been cited as one of the fastest-growing cities in Europe. There is a burgeoning pharmaceutical industry within the city, and new suburban developments are constantly popping up. Of course, things are not all rosy, and there are many areas of deprivation within the city – to give just one example, the central Merkinch area was recently found to be within the top 10 most deprived in Scotland.
Politically, Inverness at the turn of this century was something of a three-way marginal, between the Lib Dems, Labour and Nats. These days, however, the SNP dominate with the Tories a distant second. Of course, the Lib Dems and Labour still have some strength in certain wards (for instance, the Lib Dems still do well in Inverness West, Labour in Inverness Central), but nothing as compared to a decade ago. Supposedly, the SNP are bolstered by the fact that Inverness itself voted Yes in 2014. Whilst I’ve never seen any hard figures to back this up, I find it easy enough to believe.
To the immediate south of Inverness, we come to Loch Ness and the Great Glen. The opposite sides of this loch could hardly be more different. The eastern side is sparsely populated, and crofting is still practised to some degree here, with renewable energy making a huge impact on the Moandliath mountain range. But on the western side lie the absolute tourist-traps of Drumnadrochit and Fort Augustus. Both pretty enough villages, but their populations swell to bursting during the summer and they are filled to the brim with “Nessie” tat. The SNP and the Tories run each other very close indeed in this part of the constituency.
If we turn our attention to the north-east of the seat now, we come to the historic royal burgh of Nairn. This is today a pretty little seaside town, known for its golf courses and beaches. Historically, Nairn was a fishing village, and this history would suggest that it was the most Brexity part of this constituency. In general, politically speaking, it does bear more of a resemblance to the neighbouring Moray constituency than it does to the rest of INBS – it has had a long history of flirting with the Nats, before becoming very fertile ground indeed for the Tories over the last decade. So, whilst Nairn was the epicentre of Nat support in the constituency until very recently, it is now hotly contested between them and the Tories.
The ward of Badenoch and Strathspey makes up the southern half of this constituency. With Badenoch lying to the west and Strathspey to the east, this is a very sparsely populated area, covered almost entirely by the Cairngorms National Park. There are still some notable places here though. Within Badenoch, there are the villages of Kingussie and Newtonmore, with Dalwhinnie (and its wonderful distillery) lying at the southern extremity of the seat next to Loch Ericht. All these villages are pleasant but not overwhelmingly affluent. Aviemore has the opposite problem. It is wealthy but the main thoroughfare makes it look like a dump – it resembles a run-down American-style ski resort, which is really what it is. I would make an educated guess that this part of the ward leans SNP.
The planned town of Grantown-on-Spey is the principal town in Strathspey. Along with the villages of Boat of Garten, Carrbridge, and Nethy Bridge, this is by far the most affluent area of INBS, as well as being the oldest, and very popular with English retirees. This area is probably most famous for the historic steam railway that is still operational, and of course, Strathspey is known for its whiskies – but sadly all the good distilleries are over the border in Moray!
INBS’s inaugural MP was a young Danny Alexander. An MP at 33, Alexander rapidly rose through the ranks of the Lib Dems, writing their manifesto for the 2010 general election. Upon the formation of the coalition (where he was instrumental in convincing Clegg to join with the Tories), Alexander served for less than a month as Secretary of State for Scotland, before the resignation of David Laws resulted in him being appointed Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He thus became a member of “The Quad,” along with Cameron, Clegg and Osborne, setting the direction of policy for the coalition.
Alexander was very much on the right of the Lib Dems, and when their political opponents tried to tar the Lib Dems as being closet Tories, they likely had people like Alexander in mind. After the independence referendum, it soon became obvious that the SNP would do very well indeed, and that they would be targeting this seat for a high-profile scalp. Although Alexander’s share of the vote held up reasonably well (probably a futile tactical effort by unionists to keep the SNP out), the sheer number of Labour-to-SNP switchers was too much for him. Ever since Alexander’s demise, the Lib Dems have completely collapsed in this seat – they suffered a catastrophic drop in support in 2017 and went backwards again in 2019. Whilst they still have some relative strength in the other two Highland seats, I really can’t see a way back for them here.
Alexander’s nationalist successor is Drew Hendry, the former leader of the Highland council. He has ensconced himself very strongly indeed within Inverness itself, whilst still doing very respectably in the rest of the seat. In 2017, though, Hendry had a bit of a scare himself, when the Tories came from nearly losing their deposit to within 10 points of beating him – a truly extraordinary result. Labour also had something of a mini-revival in 2017, but two years later Hendry would be back on top by some margin, as Labour collapsed again and the Tories went nowhere.
To conclude, what are the chances of the SNP losing this seat? As I said, the Lib Dems now seem dead in this seat, and Labour have come within two points of losing their deposit in two of the last three elections. I have often seen Tories online bigging this up as a target seat. The last decade of Scottish politics teaches us to never say never, but they will be hard-pressed to ever gain this seat barring an SNP meltdown. Again, this is an urban seat first and foremost, and whilst the Tories have massively improved over the last five years, they are still a very distant second within Inverness itself, where more than half the votes are. To win this seat, they would have to dominate in the rural areas whilst closing the gap in Inverness. Given the Conservative Party’s current direction of travel, I just can’t see that happening. As I said at the beginning, this seat is not so different from Scotland as a whole.
