Post by Merseymike on Jun 5, 2020 23:38:25 GMT
Is this Britain's most unlikely Labour seat? Along with Sefton Central, it is sometimes described in that way.
The seat was established in 1983, when the old safe Tory Wirral division was split, and there have been some minor boundary changes since, but the seat is essentially, as the name suggests, the western side of the Wirral peninsula. It consists of a collection of small towns , villages, and the large social housing estate of Woodchurch. Like Wallasey, only even more so, it votes Conservative much more heavily at local than national level
There are five wards in Wirral West, and three are always Conservative locally, a fourth is marginal, and there is one safe Labour ward.
The three Conservative wards, in order of safety are West Kirby and Thurstaston, Hoylake and Meols, and Greasby, Frankby and Irby, where the Tories usually gain at least 50% of the vote, with Labour in second place, but a long way behind. West Kirby and Hoylake are the two main townships in the constituency, and are both very noticeably middle class. The Greasby ward includes a collection of the villages in the centre of the Wirral, as does the Pensby and Thingwall ward. This is more socially mixed, with a lot of recent housing development, and has been represented by all three parties since 2000. The Conservatives won in 2019, and did better than expected. The final ward in the constituency is the only safe Labour ward, Upton, which includes most of the Woodchurch estate, and is more closely linked to Birkenhead than the rest of the constituency - the Woodchurch is viewed locally as part of Birkenhead. The turnout in this ward is usually on the low side in local elections in comparison to some of the middle class wards, which may have the effect of making the Labour vote look smaller than it is.
So, with three safe Tory wards, one marginal, and one safe Labour ward, the question is how this seat manages to elect a Labour MP? Labour held it first between 1997 and 2010, where barrister Stephen Hesford was a nationally low-profile MP with a local reputation for diligence, but then stood down, and the seat was won by Esther McVey. She became very much the focus of local Labour campaigning, and in the following election was beaten by Labour's Margaret Greenwood, a surprising choice for the seat, with most of her local activity being focused on a health action group. On the left of the party, she entered the Shadow Cabinet as a quiet but reliable Corbyn loyalist and is currently a junior Labour shadow minister.
Despite the local election profile, Labour held the seat in 2017 with a majority of over 5000, and held on in 2019 with a 3003 majority. The question is where the votes come from? Certainly the national turnout in the strongly Labour areas such as Upton is much higher than in local elections. In 2015, when local and national elections coincided, the Tories remained marginally ahead of Labour despite Labour taking the seat. With the majorities for Labour being larger in both 2017 and 2019, it suggests that Pensby and Thingwall and perhaps Greasby would have opted for Labour in both of those years, given the safety of both Hoylake and West Kirby which keeps this as a very marginal seat. There can be little doubt that the Merseyside effect has some impact here, as this is a largely middle class seat and as safe as Hoylake and West Kirby might appear, they still have a reasonably solid Labour vote. The seat does have an equally safe Labour portion which can be relied on to vote in national elections but it appears likely to remain a seat where the Tories will win at least 9 of its 15 councillors without necessarily taking the parliamentary seat
The seat was established in 1983, when the old safe Tory Wirral division was split, and there have been some minor boundary changes since, but the seat is essentially, as the name suggests, the western side of the Wirral peninsula. It consists of a collection of small towns , villages, and the large social housing estate of Woodchurch. Like Wallasey, only even more so, it votes Conservative much more heavily at local than national level
There are five wards in Wirral West, and three are always Conservative locally, a fourth is marginal, and there is one safe Labour ward.
The three Conservative wards, in order of safety are West Kirby and Thurstaston, Hoylake and Meols, and Greasby, Frankby and Irby, where the Tories usually gain at least 50% of the vote, with Labour in second place, but a long way behind. West Kirby and Hoylake are the two main townships in the constituency, and are both very noticeably middle class. The Greasby ward includes a collection of the villages in the centre of the Wirral, as does the Pensby and Thingwall ward. This is more socially mixed, with a lot of recent housing development, and has been represented by all three parties since 2000. The Conservatives won in 2019, and did better than expected. The final ward in the constituency is the only safe Labour ward, Upton, which includes most of the Woodchurch estate, and is more closely linked to Birkenhead than the rest of the constituency - the Woodchurch is viewed locally as part of Birkenhead. The turnout in this ward is usually on the low side in local elections in comparison to some of the middle class wards, which may have the effect of making the Labour vote look smaller than it is.
So, with three safe Tory wards, one marginal, and one safe Labour ward, the question is how this seat manages to elect a Labour MP? Labour held it first between 1997 and 2010, where barrister Stephen Hesford was a nationally low-profile MP with a local reputation for diligence, but then stood down, and the seat was won by Esther McVey. She became very much the focus of local Labour campaigning, and in the following election was beaten by Labour's Margaret Greenwood, a surprising choice for the seat, with most of her local activity being focused on a health action group. On the left of the party, she entered the Shadow Cabinet as a quiet but reliable Corbyn loyalist and is currently a junior Labour shadow minister.
Despite the local election profile, Labour held the seat in 2017 with a majority of over 5000, and held on in 2019 with a 3003 majority. The question is where the votes come from? Certainly the national turnout in the strongly Labour areas such as Upton is much higher than in local elections. In 2015, when local and national elections coincided, the Tories remained marginally ahead of Labour despite Labour taking the seat. With the majorities for Labour being larger in both 2017 and 2019, it suggests that Pensby and Thingwall and perhaps Greasby would have opted for Labour in both of those years, given the safety of both Hoylake and West Kirby which keeps this as a very marginal seat. There can be little doubt that the Merseyside effect has some impact here, as this is a largely middle class seat and as safe as Hoylake and West Kirby might appear, they still have a reasonably solid Labour vote. The seat does have an equally safe Labour portion which can be relied on to vote in national elections but it appears likely to remain a seat where the Tories will win at least 9 of its 15 councillors without necessarily taking the parliamentary seat
