Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 5, 2020 11:24:28 GMT
Uxbridge has formed the basis of a constituency since 1885, initially covering a vast swathe of Western Middlesex but being reduced in scope in 1918 and again in the limited review of 1945. It had been a safe Conservative seat through most of that period but fell to Labour in 1945 despite boundary changes unfavourable to them (removing Southall, Hayes and Northolt).
Further boundary changes in 1950 removed Ruislip Northwood to create a core Uxbridge constituency which survived in similar form for the next sixty years. This boundary change was obviously helpful to Labour, and they held the seat throughout the 1950s until losing it in the 1959 Conservative landslide. Thereafter, the Conservatives held the seat in 1964 and Labour won only narrowly in 1966 which was to be their last ever victory here. They notably failed to win the seat not only in the 1997 landslide but also in by-elections in favourable circumstances in 1972 and again in 1997.
Clearly this seat had trended Conservative since the 1950s. Throughout the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s no party achieved a majority greater than 2,500 with the exception of the Conservatives in 1970. The Conservative majority reached the heights of nearly 8,000 in 1979 and in the following three elections moved into five figures. The trends here bear some similarity to socially similar areas in other parts of Outer London such as in Havering and Bexley.
Uxbridge is a major retail and commercial centre and middle-income office workers are the typical demographic here.
The close results and low swings here in much of the post-war period do indicate that this is a somewhat socially divided constituency but there are not great extremes of wealth or poverty. Most of the housing development here consists of inter-war semis and a good deal of post-war council-built housing. There are very good residential areas to the North of Uxbridge itself and beyond that the very affluent Ickenham was the main Tory stronghold in the constituency. Labour were strong in Uxbridge South and other communities to the South of Uxbridge itself – Cowley, Colham Green, down in the previously separate Urban District of Yiewsley & West Drayton and along the border with Hayes in Hillingdon Heath. They also enjoyed great strength back in the day in Harefield in the far North of the constituency and the removal of that ward ahead of the 1997 election may have proved crucial to the Conservatives holding on then (though subsequently Labour support has evaporated in Harefield.)
The boundary changes which translated Uxbridge into Uxbridge & South Ruislip ahead of the 2010 election were sweeping without having major partisan effects. It might be thought that bringing in a large part of the safely Conservative Ruislip Northwood seat would boost the Conservatives here but for various reasons this is not the case (my own notional results suggest this seat would narrowly have voted Labour in 1997 but as it is the difference between a small Conservative lead and a small Labour one, the effect is to all intents and purposes neutral). Although the marginal area of West Drayton was removed in the South, the massive Conservative stronghold of Ickenham was lost in the North, leaving a core of Uxbridge which overall would be less favourable to the Conservatives than the previous seat. Meanwhile the replacement in the form of ‘South Ruislip’ was not enough to compensate for the loss of Ickenham.
The South Ruislip ward itself (and predecessor wards of Bourne and Deansfield) had often returned Labour councillors and was a distinctly downmarket part of the constituency from which it came. Manor and Cavendish wards, covering the southern parts of Ruislip proper and Eastcote respectively, were somewhat more upmarket than South Ruislip itself but not at all as opulent as the parts of Ruislip, Eastcote and Northwood which remained in that seat. They are strongly owner-occupied but consist mostly of inter-war semis and have a generally lower middle-class population. They were also, for many years, areas of considerable Lib Dem strength in local elections, again a far-cry from the Tory monoliths in Eastcote and West Ruislip etc.
South Ruislip is the kind of very Haveringesque area that has trended quite strongly to the Conservatives in recent decades but there are some signs that the demographic trends may be starting to move in the opposite direction. Given the proximity of areas like South Harrow and Northolt, it is perhaps surprising that this area remained so overwhelmingly white for as long as it did, but it does appear this may be starting to change now.
Similar demographic trends may be even more having in effect in the Uxbridge core of the seat, (again unsurprising given the proximity of Hayes etc.) and this will account for the slipping of the margin in the last couple of elections compared with the previous two, with Labour achieving 40% of the vote in 2017. To achieve that kind of score they must have been able to win the southern most ward of Uxbridge South and Yiewsley and been competitive also in Hillingdon East, Brunel and South Ruislip. Brunel has been a consistently Conservative held ward since its creation in 2002 and does include some good residential areas but as the name gives away it includes the University of the same name with a certain number of students resident and these are a significant source of Labour support in that ward and others. In fact this is one of relatively few constituencies where the Conservatives currently hold all the council seats but this may mislead a little as few of the wards are totally safe.
Clearly Boris Johnson does not have a totally safe seat here. Boundary changes could be key – if Ickenham and Harefield were returned it would boost the Conservatives greatly whereas if Northolt were added (as was proposed previously) it could destroy them. The main factor here though will be demographic (ie ethnic) change. This can occur very rapidly as seen in Ilford North on the other side of London and indeed on several seats closer to here. It is fair to say that unlike in 1974 and unlike in 1997, Labour will not be able to form a majority without winning this seat, which is not to say that this will happen in the very near future.
Results of 2018 local elections
2019 General election
2017 General election
2015 General election
2016 EU referendum (Hanratty estimate)
Further boundary changes in 1950 removed Ruislip Northwood to create a core Uxbridge constituency which survived in similar form for the next sixty years. This boundary change was obviously helpful to Labour, and they held the seat throughout the 1950s until losing it in the 1959 Conservative landslide. Thereafter, the Conservatives held the seat in 1964 and Labour won only narrowly in 1966 which was to be their last ever victory here. They notably failed to win the seat not only in the 1997 landslide but also in by-elections in favourable circumstances in 1972 and again in 1997.
Clearly this seat had trended Conservative since the 1950s. Throughout the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s no party achieved a majority greater than 2,500 with the exception of the Conservatives in 1970. The Conservative majority reached the heights of nearly 8,000 in 1979 and in the following three elections moved into five figures. The trends here bear some similarity to socially similar areas in other parts of Outer London such as in Havering and Bexley.
Uxbridge is a major retail and commercial centre and middle-income office workers are the typical demographic here.
The close results and low swings here in much of the post-war period do indicate that this is a somewhat socially divided constituency but there are not great extremes of wealth or poverty. Most of the housing development here consists of inter-war semis and a good deal of post-war council-built housing. There are very good residential areas to the North of Uxbridge itself and beyond that the very affluent Ickenham was the main Tory stronghold in the constituency. Labour were strong in Uxbridge South and other communities to the South of Uxbridge itself – Cowley, Colham Green, down in the previously separate Urban District of Yiewsley & West Drayton and along the border with Hayes in Hillingdon Heath. They also enjoyed great strength back in the day in Harefield in the far North of the constituency and the removal of that ward ahead of the 1997 election may have proved crucial to the Conservatives holding on then (though subsequently Labour support has evaporated in Harefield.)
The boundary changes which translated Uxbridge into Uxbridge & South Ruislip ahead of the 2010 election were sweeping without having major partisan effects. It might be thought that bringing in a large part of the safely Conservative Ruislip Northwood seat would boost the Conservatives here but for various reasons this is not the case (my own notional results suggest this seat would narrowly have voted Labour in 1997 but as it is the difference between a small Conservative lead and a small Labour one, the effect is to all intents and purposes neutral). Although the marginal area of West Drayton was removed in the South, the massive Conservative stronghold of Ickenham was lost in the North, leaving a core of Uxbridge which overall would be less favourable to the Conservatives than the previous seat. Meanwhile the replacement in the form of ‘South Ruislip’ was not enough to compensate for the loss of Ickenham.
The South Ruislip ward itself (and predecessor wards of Bourne and Deansfield) had often returned Labour councillors and was a distinctly downmarket part of the constituency from which it came. Manor and Cavendish wards, covering the southern parts of Ruislip proper and Eastcote respectively, were somewhat more upmarket than South Ruislip itself but not at all as opulent as the parts of Ruislip, Eastcote and Northwood which remained in that seat. They are strongly owner-occupied but consist mostly of inter-war semis and have a generally lower middle-class population. They were also, for many years, areas of considerable Lib Dem strength in local elections, again a far-cry from the Tory monoliths in Eastcote and West Ruislip etc.
South Ruislip is the kind of very Haveringesque area that has trended quite strongly to the Conservatives in recent decades but there are some signs that the demographic trends may be starting to move in the opposite direction. Given the proximity of areas like South Harrow and Northolt, it is perhaps surprising that this area remained so overwhelmingly white for as long as it did, but it does appear this may be starting to change now.
Similar demographic trends may be even more having in effect in the Uxbridge core of the seat, (again unsurprising given the proximity of Hayes etc.) and this will account for the slipping of the margin in the last couple of elections compared with the previous two, with Labour achieving 40% of the vote in 2017. To achieve that kind of score they must have been able to win the southern most ward of Uxbridge South and Yiewsley and been competitive also in Hillingdon East, Brunel and South Ruislip. Brunel has been a consistently Conservative held ward since its creation in 2002 and does include some good residential areas but as the name gives away it includes the University of the same name with a certain number of students resident and these are a significant source of Labour support in that ward and others. In fact this is one of relatively few constituencies where the Conservatives currently hold all the council seats but this may mislead a little as few of the wards are totally safe.
Clearly Boris Johnson does not have a totally safe seat here. Boundary changes could be key – if Ickenham and Harefield were returned it would boost the Conservatives greatly whereas if Northolt were added (as was proposed previously) it could destroy them. The main factor here though will be demographic (ie ethnic) change. This can occur very rapidly as seen in Ilford North on the other side of London and indeed on several seats closer to here. It is fair to say that unlike in 1974 and unlike in 1997, Labour will not be able to form a majority without winning this seat, which is not to say that this will happen in the very near future.
| 1. Uxbridge North | 6. South Ruislip |
| 2. Uxbridge South | 7. Manor |
| 3. Yiewsley | 8. Cavendish |
| 4. Brunel | |
| 5. Hillingdon East |
Results of 2018 local elections
2019 General election
| Con | 25,351 | 52.6% |
| Lab | 18,141 | 37.6% |
| LD | 3,026 | 6.3% |
| Grn | 1,090 | 2.3% |
| UKIP | 283 | 0.6% |
| Oth | 296 | 0.6% |
| Majority | 7,210 | 15.0% |
2017 General election
| Con | 23,716 | 50.8% |
| Lab | 18,682 | 40.0% |
| LD | 1,835 | 3.9% |
| UKIP | 1,577 | 3.4% |
| Grn | 884 | 1.9% |
| Majority | 5,034 | 10.8% |
2015 General election
| Con | 22,511 | 50.2% |
| Lab | 11,816 | 26.4% |
| UKIP | 6,346 | 14.2% |
| LD | 2,215 | 4.9% |
| Grn | 1,414 | 3.2% |
| Oth | 509 | 1.1% |
| Majority | 10,695 | 23.8% |
2016 EU referendum (Hanratty estimate)
| Leave | 57.2% | |
| Remain | 42.8% |
% | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | ||||
| Owner Occupied | 64.7 | 348 | White | 69.8 | 500 | Christian | 54.4 | 439 | Graduates | 27.7 | 227 |
| Social Rented | 15.3 | 283 | Asian | 18.1 | 52 | Muslim | 7.9 | 101 | No Qualifications | 17.9 | 467 |
| Private Rented | 18.0 | 160 | Black | 5.6 | 94 | Hindu | 5.5 | 23 | |||
| Mixed | 3.9 | 81 | Sikh | 1.5 | 32 | Students | 17.0 | 43 | |||
| Other | 2.6 | 54 | Jewish | 0.3 | 111 | ||||||
| None | 20.9 | 460 | Prof/Man | 36.7 | |||||||
| Routine/ | 21.8 | ||||||||||
| Semi Routine |
