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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 4, 2020 13:01:43 GMT
My parents' constituency of origin, so I could have a go if no-one else feels in a strong position ...
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 5, 2020 16:54:08 GMT
This seat in the county of Lancashire was created in 1983 from what might appear to be a merger of the two undersized former constituencies referenced in its name, though in fact it did not include all the territory in either. Rossendale had long been a classic marginal between the two ‘governing’ parties, but Darwen had never been won by Labour. Between 1929 and 1935 it was the seat of Sir Herbert Samuel, the leader of what at the time was one of no fewer than three competing Liberal party factions, but from 1935 through to 1979 it had always been Conservative, including in 1945 and 1966. It was likely therefore that Rossendale and Darwen would be a Tory inclined seat with outside Labour chances, but in fact the only time it has been won by other than the winning party in the whole general election was in 1992, when Labour’s Janet Anderson gained it, albeit by a slender margin of 120 votes. Overall, therefore it has been close to the national norm, though in 2019 the present incumbent Jake Berry benefited from a positive swing of over 6% which meant its result was significantly on the Conservative side of average. This is likely to be because it was also on the Brexit side of average, with a Leave vote estimated at 59%.
There is no town called Rossendale, but it is definitely an identifiable entity. The Rossendale valley runs west-east between the small towns of Rawtenstall and Bacup, and the borough of the same name is a compact unit, with good internal lines of communication along a group of east Lancashire Pennine valleys. Once economically based on cotton mills, then later heavily involved in boot and shoe manufacturing (particularly specializing in some communities in slippers), from Rawtenstall at their heart the valleys ran west to Haslingden, east to Bacup, south to Ramsbottom, north towards Burnley. Rather as in South Wales, distinct communities lay along the valleys like beads on a chain, places like Waterfoot and Stacksteads (between Rawtenstall and Bacup), Crawshawbooth and Lumb and Love Clough (between Rawtenstall and Burnley). These industrial communities were once divided between church and chapel, largely Conservative and Liberal respectively, but they have now come to be very closely contested between Labour and Conservative – there are very few safe wards, and each community is a microcosm of political as well as economic and social competition. In May 2019 of the ten Rossendale wards in this seat (two Haslingden wards are in the Hyndburn constituency) and contested that year, four were won by the Conservatives, four by Labour, and two by local independents - none overwhelmingly. Rossendale is still a well balanced two-party contest.
The reason why the Darwen seat was consistently Tory was not so much because of the eponymous town, which is another product of Lancashire’s Industrial Revolution history – its presence at the core of that mighty development is indicated by the fact that Darwen Football Club were elected to the Football League in 1891, when there were only fourteen teams, although after an undistinguished record they departed to ‘non-league’ just before the century was out. Darwen was the chosen destination for Gandhi’s visit to the ‘cotton north’ in 1931 and still looks the part of the ex-mill town (and sounds it too, with the rich east Lancashire accent of the ‘Darreners’). It was the rural hinterland in the former Blackburn Rural District and the former Turton Urban District that tipped the balance of Darwen to the Conservatives before 1983, but most of Turton’s population was placed in Bolton Metropolitan Borough, and some of Blackburn Rural District in Ribble Valley. The Darwen area was re-warded before the May 2019 local elections and the three Darwen divisions, which still include some rural areas, were split between the three main parties.
Nevertheless, recent parliamentary contests in Rossendale and Darwen have seemed in some ways like a throwback to the era of strict two party politics. 93.5% of the votes cast in December 2019 were shared between Labour and Conservative, one of the highest figures anywhere. The Liberal Democrats have performed very weakly in the last three elections: 1.6% in 2015, 3.1% in 2017, 4.1% in 2019 – they have little in the way of a local government base and are squeezed by the constituency’s traditional marginality. The old-fashioned feel is confirmed by a tour of this neck of the woods. Unlike Burnley, Pendle and even Hyndburn, there is not a substantial Asian population, even in pockets; Rossendale and Darwen is over 95% white. In Rawtenstall can be found Fitzpatrick’s, which advertises itself as Britain’s last ever temperance bar, featuring the delights of sarsaparilla and dandelion and burdock. Although 116th on Labour’s target list after 2019, one feels that this seat is one that they need to target in order again to form the government of the land, after sober consideration of why 2019 was their worst ever result here – and that includes the Thatcher landslide year of 1983.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.1% 444/650 Owner-occupied 71.1% 191/650 Private rented 15.1% 276/650 Social rented 12.4% 473/650 White 95.7% 299/650 Black 0.2% 514/650 Asian 3.1% 302/650 Managerial & professional 30.4% Routine & Semi-routine 27.5% Degree level 24.9% 350/650 No qualifications 23.6% 302/650 Students 6.5% 376/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 68.9% 195/573 Private rented 18.1% 278/573 Social rented 13.0% 382/573 White 94.3% Black 0.3% Asian 3.6% Managerial & professional 32.2% 282/573 Routine & Semi-routine 25.1% 239/573 Degree level 30.9% 312/573 No qualifications 18.2% 263/573
General Election 2019: Rossendale and Darwen
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Jake Berry 27,570 56.5 +5.7 Labour Alyson Barnes 18,048 37.0 −7.4 Liberal Democrats Paul Valentine 2,011 4.1 +1.0 Green Sarah Hall 1,193 2.4 +0.8
C Majority 9,522 19.5 +13.1
Turnout 48,822 67.1 −2.1
Conservative hold Swing +6.5
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