Post by bungle on May 30, 2020 11:57:19 GMT
Haltemprice and Howden
Haltemprice and Howden is a worthy entrant to that category of constituencies: “where on earth is it?”. Along with its partial predecessor Boothferry and its neighbour Barkston Ash we know that the Boundary Commission have form when it comes to picking out small communities and exalting them within nomenclature. The fact that prior to 1983 both Haltemprice and Howden gave their names to separate parliamentary constituencies is impressive given that neither are any kind of substantial conurbation.
So where are we? This is the East Riding of Yorkshire taking in all territory immediately west/north-west of the city of Hull (except Hessle) as we follow the Humber upstream where it turns into the Ouse. The constituency takes in a lot of the flat lands north of the Ouse until it reaches the River Derwent opposite the mighty Drax Power Station a few miles east of Selby. The constituency can be roughly divided into two zones – firstly there are the ‘we are not Hull’ ex-villages which abut the city boundary. These are now residential suburbs or dormitory towns which have grown substantially over the last 70 years. Secondly there are the fen-like rural areas around the Humber/Ouse and immediately to its north which contains a minority of the population but easily makes the biggest contribution geographically.
The Haltemprice element of the constituency refers to the aforementioned Hull suburban communities – Cottingham, Kirk Ella, Willerby and Anlaby. Haltemprice itself was the name of an abbey located just south of Cottingham which in turn became Haltemprice Farm (still marked as such on the map) which now suffers from a similar fate of total dereliction. It gave its name to a new urban district created in 1935 to cover these growing suburbs and later on in 1950 to a parliamentary constituency. For most of its existence until 1983 this was a relatively compact seat (for a Yorkshire county constituency) which took in the areas aforementioned and areas to the north of Hull including the fine county town of Beverley. Rural villages, a prosperous county town and well-to-do suburban growth combined to make this a very safe Tory seat. Despite being the MP from 1954 until its demise in 1983 it could be argued that Patrick Wall wasn’t its most well-known representative: the creators of The New Statesman and fictional MP Alan B’Stard made him representative for Haltemprice.
Cottingham is a typical vastly expanded ex-village (pop now 17,000) mainly through post-war substantial high-quality housing aimed squarely at the middle classes working in Hull. Commuter links via road and rail are good and have been for some time. Given the main growth period here was 1945-70 the current population profile skews older than average and most of it is in the least 20% deprived IMD areas. All of this means it is easy to understand why Cottingham’s default setting is Conservative, especially Cottingham North ward (which is dominated by the type of housing mentioned above). In 1995 the Conservatives won the first ERYC election in Cottingham North somewhat easily (despite the awful national performance by them); since 2015 they have been the victim of local Independents but one senses much of their support will vote Tory nationally. Cottingham South ward is more mixed in terms of housing and IMD levels (a good amount of current and ex-council housing) and therefore has proved more fertile for opposition parties. The Lib Dems rode an efficient route to victory taking both seats in every election from 1995-2007 but usually by less than 5% over the Conservatives. By 2015 their national collapse actually allowed Labour to come within 150 votes of winning here.
There is a similar pattern of development in Kirk Ella and Anlaby where more substantial housing was built post war up to the 1960s; Willerby is bit newer. Plenty of small but new estates keep popping up here with family style housing underpinned by households with strong levels of affluence. All of this ensures the politics here is very comfortable and middle class with the Conservatives and Lib Dems vying for supremacy. The Conservatives have strengthened their grip in Willerby and Kirk Ella ward during the 2010s whereas the Lib Dems have been more successful and resilient in the slightly less affluent Tranby ward (covering Anlaby) having recovered both seats in 2019 for the first time since 2007.
The remainder of the area which makes up this Hull commuter territory are the small towns of Brough (pop 7,000), North Ferriby (pop 4,000) and Swanland (pop 4,000). All of these places follow the pattern above of vastly expanding original villages with mainly prosperous voters; unsurprisingly all of this area is within the least 20% deprived by IMD. Here there is some more localised industry of note: Brough has a long connection with aerospace via Hawker Siddeley and later BAE Systems but the future is precarious. These areas and the surrounding Wolds-type countryside immediately to the north (which is combined with Brough in Dale ward) are now very safe for the Conservatives both at local and national elections. However, these did prove fruitful for the Lib Dems in the late 90s/early 2000s.
All of the above gives some indication as to how and why the Liberal Democrats started to seriously challenge in this constituency in 2001. In 1997 the Conservatives won by a healthy enough 7,500 but in 2001 the majority was dramatically cut to 1,900. There were enough ‘non-Labour’ soft middle class votes up for grabs, what with the impact of the unappetising national Tory situation (and a suggestion of a lazy local campaign by the incumbent) combining with the increased local presence and activism of the Lib Dems. The latter could also use their clear second place in 1997 to credibly squeeze Labour’s 11,700 votes with a tactical message.
Whilst some of the Tory current ‘core vote’ in those areas listed above will have flirted with the Lib Dems, there are parts of the constituency where the yellow army will have found it harder going. As you head further away from Hull both the landscape and population changes. It becomes more rural, less educated/professional and less affluent; this part of the constituency feels very similar to the Holderness peninsula on the other side of Hull and parts of fenland Lincolnshire. Wards such as Howdenshire (which covers a vast area of mainly remote hamlets and villages) are solidly Conservative, to the extent that in 2015 all 3 Tory candidates were unopposed. This isn’t the bucolic affluent rural Toryism of the Cotswolds or North Yorkshire; this is very gritty and unprepossessing countryside with much employment inherently connected to agriculture and rural interests.
Howden town itself (pop 4,000), with its fine minster tower and abbey ruins, has the distinction of being the sole single member ward on East Riding of Yorkshire Council. It has a very haywire electoral history suggesting candidates and campaigning matters here (e.g. the Lib Dems went from 5% in 1995 to 64% in 1999). The bulk of the constituency of the same name which existed until 1983 was located way to the north of Howden town covering Driffield, the Wolds and territory that ended up in North Yorkshire and so bares very little resemblance to the present seat other than in name.
When Haltemprice and Howden was created as a constituency in 1997 it excised from the political landscape one of the most illogical and unlamented constituencies in Boothferry. Named after the bridge over the Ouse just south west of Howden (which was important pre-M62) this seat was a direct impact of that other outrage forced upon this area, namely the 1974 county of Humberside. Boothferry CC took in a sizeable amount of the old Howden seat but also went south to take in the town of Goole (formerly in the West Riding) and parts of rural Lincolnshire around the Isle of Axholme. Freed from the straitjacket of creating boundaries using Humberside as the base, the Boundary Commissioners split Boothferry into four and no one except Pete Whitehead has to my knowledge suggested it should be resurrected.
The main reason for mentioning this history is that the MP for Boothferry since 1987 - David Davis - followed that part of his seat which went into Haltemprice and Howden (mainly the area around Howden/Howdenshire/the Caves). The Haltemprice elements were located in Beverley CC from 1983-97 but were divorced from the latter in what became quite a substantial boundary change across the East Riding. Davis has had an eclectic and somewhat erratic political career. His trajectory was smooth for the first 10 years ending up as Minister of State for Europe under John Major. Opting out of the Hague Shadow Cabinet by becoming Chair of Public Accounts he became Chairman of the Conservative Party under IDS rising to Shadow Home Secretary under Michael Howard. This gave the Lib Dems added impetus to unseat him as part of their 2005 ‘decapitation strategy’ but the jolt of the result in 2001 clearly shook off any Tory campaigning complacency and he secured re-election with a 5,000 majority as the strategy proved a bitter failure.
Later that year Davis managed to secure his berth in the members ballot for the leadership but was soundly defeated by David Cameron, not least for his perceived lack of oratory. In 2008 he peremptorily refused to listen to colleagues and resigned his Shadow Cabinet position and his seat to fight a by-election on what was a concern about New Labour and civil liberties. Labour and the Lib Dems refused to cede the legitimacy of the contest and sat out the by-election which, despite a record number of candidates ever for a parliamentary by-election (26), was a complete non-event in party political terms. Davis was comfortably re-elected with 72% of the vote but with no noticeable impact. Subsequently, he sat out the Cameron government but became Brexit Secretary under Theresa May until resigning in 2018.
Davis is completely secure in this seat and it is hard to see any circumstances at present which will provide any kind of electoral challenge to the Conservatives. In 2010 Davis’ majority swelled to 11,600 despite Cleggmania and by 2019 it had reached 20,000. The Lib Dems effort completely unravelled after 2010 and they suffered the added ignominy of sliding so low as to lose their deposit in 2017. Labour are the nominal challengers but they won’t be putting this on any target list. The next bit of political excitement here will likely be generated if Davis hands in his notice – he will be 75 by the next scheduled General Election. He will open the way to a desirable safe seat for a Tory which is only just over 2 hours by train from London which I am sure will attract many metropolitan applicants. Maybe by then they will be reading this profile in some kind of book form in order to navigate their way around…?
Haltemprice and Howden is a worthy entrant to that category of constituencies: “where on earth is it?”. Along with its partial predecessor Boothferry and its neighbour Barkston Ash we know that the Boundary Commission have form when it comes to picking out small communities and exalting them within nomenclature. The fact that prior to 1983 both Haltemprice and Howden gave their names to separate parliamentary constituencies is impressive given that neither are any kind of substantial conurbation.
So where are we? This is the East Riding of Yorkshire taking in all territory immediately west/north-west of the city of Hull (except Hessle) as we follow the Humber upstream where it turns into the Ouse. The constituency takes in a lot of the flat lands north of the Ouse until it reaches the River Derwent opposite the mighty Drax Power Station a few miles east of Selby. The constituency can be roughly divided into two zones – firstly there are the ‘we are not Hull’ ex-villages which abut the city boundary. These are now residential suburbs or dormitory towns which have grown substantially over the last 70 years. Secondly there are the fen-like rural areas around the Humber/Ouse and immediately to its north which contains a minority of the population but easily makes the biggest contribution geographically.
The Haltemprice element of the constituency refers to the aforementioned Hull suburban communities – Cottingham, Kirk Ella, Willerby and Anlaby. Haltemprice itself was the name of an abbey located just south of Cottingham which in turn became Haltemprice Farm (still marked as such on the map) which now suffers from a similar fate of total dereliction. It gave its name to a new urban district created in 1935 to cover these growing suburbs and later on in 1950 to a parliamentary constituency. For most of its existence until 1983 this was a relatively compact seat (for a Yorkshire county constituency) which took in the areas aforementioned and areas to the north of Hull including the fine county town of Beverley. Rural villages, a prosperous county town and well-to-do suburban growth combined to make this a very safe Tory seat. Despite being the MP from 1954 until its demise in 1983 it could be argued that Patrick Wall wasn’t its most well-known representative: the creators of The New Statesman and fictional MP Alan B’Stard made him representative for Haltemprice.
Cottingham is a typical vastly expanded ex-village (pop now 17,000) mainly through post-war substantial high-quality housing aimed squarely at the middle classes working in Hull. Commuter links via road and rail are good and have been for some time. Given the main growth period here was 1945-70 the current population profile skews older than average and most of it is in the least 20% deprived IMD areas. All of this means it is easy to understand why Cottingham’s default setting is Conservative, especially Cottingham North ward (which is dominated by the type of housing mentioned above). In 1995 the Conservatives won the first ERYC election in Cottingham North somewhat easily (despite the awful national performance by them); since 2015 they have been the victim of local Independents but one senses much of their support will vote Tory nationally. Cottingham South ward is more mixed in terms of housing and IMD levels (a good amount of current and ex-council housing) and therefore has proved more fertile for opposition parties. The Lib Dems rode an efficient route to victory taking both seats in every election from 1995-2007 but usually by less than 5% over the Conservatives. By 2015 their national collapse actually allowed Labour to come within 150 votes of winning here.
There is a similar pattern of development in Kirk Ella and Anlaby where more substantial housing was built post war up to the 1960s; Willerby is bit newer. Plenty of small but new estates keep popping up here with family style housing underpinned by households with strong levels of affluence. All of this ensures the politics here is very comfortable and middle class with the Conservatives and Lib Dems vying for supremacy. The Conservatives have strengthened their grip in Willerby and Kirk Ella ward during the 2010s whereas the Lib Dems have been more successful and resilient in the slightly less affluent Tranby ward (covering Anlaby) having recovered both seats in 2019 for the first time since 2007.
The remainder of the area which makes up this Hull commuter territory are the small towns of Brough (pop 7,000), North Ferriby (pop 4,000) and Swanland (pop 4,000). All of these places follow the pattern above of vastly expanding original villages with mainly prosperous voters; unsurprisingly all of this area is within the least 20% deprived by IMD. Here there is some more localised industry of note: Brough has a long connection with aerospace via Hawker Siddeley and later BAE Systems but the future is precarious. These areas and the surrounding Wolds-type countryside immediately to the north (which is combined with Brough in Dale ward) are now very safe for the Conservatives both at local and national elections. However, these did prove fruitful for the Lib Dems in the late 90s/early 2000s.
All of the above gives some indication as to how and why the Liberal Democrats started to seriously challenge in this constituency in 2001. In 1997 the Conservatives won by a healthy enough 7,500 but in 2001 the majority was dramatically cut to 1,900. There were enough ‘non-Labour’ soft middle class votes up for grabs, what with the impact of the unappetising national Tory situation (and a suggestion of a lazy local campaign by the incumbent) combining with the increased local presence and activism of the Lib Dems. The latter could also use their clear second place in 1997 to credibly squeeze Labour’s 11,700 votes with a tactical message.
Whilst some of the Tory current ‘core vote’ in those areas listed above will have flirted with the Lib Dems, there are parts of the constituency where the yellow army will have found it harder going. As you head further away from Hull both the landscape and population changes. It becomes more rural, less educated/professional and less affluent; this part of the constituency feels very similar to the Holderness peninsula on the other side of Hull and parts of fenland Lincolnshire. Wards such as Howdenshire (which covers a vast area of mainly remote hamlets and villages) are solidly Conservative, to the extent that in 2015 all 3 Tory candidates were unopposed. This isn’t the bucolic affluent rural Toryism of the Cotswolds or North Yorkshire; this is very gritty and unprepossessing countryside with much employment inherently connected to agriculture and rural interests.
Howden town itself (pop 4,000), with its fine minster tower and abbey ruins, has the distinction of being the sole single member ward on East Riding of Yorkshire Council. It has a very haywire electoral history suggesting candidates and campaigning matters here (e.g. the Lib Dems went from 5% in 1995 to 64% in 1999). The bulk of the constituency of the same name which existed until 1983 was located way to the north of Howden town covering Driffield, the Wolds and territory that ended up in North Yorkshire and so bares very little resemblance to the present seat other than in name.
When Haltemprice and Howden was created as a constituency in 1997 it excised from the political landscape one of the most illogical and unlamented constituencies in Boothferry. Named after the bridge over the Ouse just south west of Howden (which was important pre-M62) this seat was a direct impact of that other outrage forced upon this area, namely the 1974 county of Humberside. Boothferry CC took in a sizeable amount of the old Howden seat but also went south to take in the town of Goole (formerly in the West Riding) and parts of rural Lincolnshire around the Isle of Axholme. Freed from the straitjacket of creating boundaries using Humberside as the base, the Boundary Commissioners split Boothferry into four and no one except Pete Whitehead has to my knowledge suggested it should be resurrected.
The main reason for mentioning this history is that the MP for Boothferry since 1987 - David Davis - followed that part of his seat which went into Haltemprice and Howden (mainly the area around Howden/Howdenshire/the Caves). The Haltemprice elements were located in Beverley CC from 1983-97 but were divorced from the latter in what became quite a substantial boundary change across the East Riding. Davis has had an eclectic and somewhat erratic political career. His trajectory was smooth for the first 10 years ending up as Minister of State for Europe under John Major. Opting out of the Hague Shadow Cabinet by becoming Chair of Public Accounts he became Chairman of the Conservative Party under IDS rising to Shadow Home Secretary under Michael Howard. This gave the Lib Dems added impetus to unseat him as part of their 2005 ‘decapitation strategy’ but the jolt of the result in 2001 clearly shook off any Tory campaigning complacency and he secured re-election with a 5,000 majority as the strategy proved a bitter failure.
Later that year Davis managed to secure his berth in the members ballot for the leadership but was soundly defeated by David Cameron, not least for his perceived lack of oratory. In 2008 he peremptorily refused to listen to colleagues and resigned his Shadow Cabinet position and his seat to fight a by-election on what was a concern about New Labour and civil liberties. Labour and the Lib Dems refused to cede the legitimacy of the contest and sat out the by-election which, despite a record number of candidates ever for a parliamentary by-election (26), was a complete non-event in party political terms. Davis was comfortably re-elected with 72% of the vote but with no noticeable impact. Subsequently, he sat out the Cameron government but became Brexit Secretary under Theresa May until resigning in 2018.
Davis is completely secure in this seat and it is hard to see any circumstances at present which will provide any kind of electoral challenge to the Conservatives. In 2010 Davis’ majority swelled to 11,600 despite Cleggmania and by 2019 it had reached 20,000. The Lib Dems effort completely unravelled after 2010 and they suffered the added ignominy of sliding so low as to lose their deposit in 2017. Labour are the nominal challengers but they won’t be putting this on any target list. The next bit of political excitement here will likely be generated if Davis hands in his notice – he will be 75 by the next scheduled General Election. He will open the way to a desirable safe seat for a Tory which is only just over 2 hours by train from London which I am sure will attract many metropolitan applicants. Maybe by then they will be reading this profile in some kind of book form in order to navigate their way around…?
