nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 29, 2020 12:13:17 GMT
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,456
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 29, 2020 19:12:06 GMT
Quick reminder-this was a votes to seat projection model developed by Nick Sparrow of ICM and Sir John Curtice. It was based on aggregated ICM data from recent months and took into account variable regional swing rather than uniform swing/change. If you like a 21st century swingometer
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Post by tonygreaves on May 29, 2020 19:31:16 GMT
No.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 30, 2020 10:43:00 GMT
Its prognostications did not turn out to be terribly accurate, Labour actually did better in the marginals come the 2001 GE than generally. And the Tories hardly gained seats at all despite the crash in turnout they had been almost openly praying for. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 10:52:22 GMT
Its prognostications did not turn out to be terribly accurate, Labour actually did better in the marginals come the 2001 GE than generally. And the Tories hardly gained seats at all despite the crash in turnout they had been almost openly praying for. Largely because the crash in turnout was largely among Tory voters,some of who had voted Labour in 97, others who hadn't |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,456
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 30, 2020 11:14:23 GMT
Its prognostications did not turn out to be terribly accurate, Labour actually did better in the marginals come the 2001 GE than generally. And the Tories hardly gained seats at all despite the crash in turnout they had been almost openly praying for. The initial version suggested if the 1997 vote shares were reproduced Labour would still have a 3 figure majority but far less than 179. An updated version nearer the election did look better for Labour but it didn't really work as a projection model. The final ICM poll of the 2001 election with shares of Lab 43%,Con 32%,Lib Dem 19%,Other 6%-seat projection(GB)-425/168/38/10-majority 191 www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/31698347/guardian-june-poll-icm-research |
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