Croatian elections

[Georg Ebner]

Finally there emerged a NailBiter: Istra! SDP ended only 54 votes behind its decades-long closest ally IDS. Defeating the latter might have been the worst result for SDP...

[Georg Ebner]

Regions:

Cities&towns:

[Georg Ebner]

Which party will have how many mayors and how many citizens (census 2011) will be governed by them?:

[Georg Ebner]

Mayors since 2009 in towns with more than 15.000 InHabitants:

Mayors, numbers per PartyAffiliation & citizens:

[Georg Ebner]

...and the same also for the presidents of the 21 regions:

[Georg Ebner]

Mayors

- 2013:

- 2017:

- 2021:

[Georg Ebner]

Minimal colour-changes to the 2021-mayorsMap:

...plus completing the series with 2009 (before that the mayors seem to have been elected indirectly):

Regional presidents (lightGreen = exHSS, now HDZ-allies; orange = exHNS):

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 17, 2021 19:55:42 GMT seanryanj said:

Seems like there is trouble in the Green party www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/annamie-paul-justin-trudeau-green-party-canada

And what does this have in common with Croatia?

[seanryanj]

Jun 17, 2021 20:02:01 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 17, 2021 19:55:42 GMT seanryanj said:

Seems like there is trouble in the Green party www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/annamie-paul-justin-trudeau-green-party-canada

And what does this have in common with Croatia?

Apologies wrong thread!

[Georg Ebner]

President Milatovic has not just announced, that the election will take place on a WednesDay (17.04.) instead of the usual SunDay; but proclaimed additionally to lead SDP into the battle (his term will/would end in winter)!
When being deselected as PM, he was deeply unpopular, someTimes also during his term, not sure, how his ProRussian reMarks while being realiter proWestern (Radev light) have gone down. But certain is, that with him SDP is suddenly in play.

[Georg Ebner]

...and believe it or not: They were finally able to redraw Tudjman's 1999-constituencies as demanded by their Constitutional Court ~10 years ago:

Southern Slavonia (nr. V) extends now partly to the historical border (yet, the area is clearly closer to Zagreb than to Osijek), but otherwise it's awful. In many hours i calculated the outCome with the 21 counties as electoral units in place and sent the results to politicians (what was probably counter-productive by demonstrating a small bias towards SDP). For a start: ZagrebCity deserves with HareNiemeyer 28 seats (with d'Hondt 29), so exactly 2 constituencies. Could be easily halved (north-south). Instead they tried to continue with the present system, that split the city into 4 const. (now 3).

[Georg Ebner]

Sharp inCrease of turnOut reported, especially from ZagrebCity & surRounding, cf. the data at 16.30 MET:

What should be good news for the opPosition, but then it cannot be ruled out, that exactly this area has been moving to moderate Plenkovic as Milatovic - someTimes the darling of the LeftLiberals in the West - has tried to appeal to the proEasterners. JutarnjiList, a newsPaper usually labelled as leftlib., had this remarkable onLin-opinionPoll:

[Georg Ebner]

In few minutes we will know more.

Here is the link to the EC:

www.izbori.hr/site/izbori-referendumi/izbori-zastupnika-u-hrvatski-sabor/izbori-zastupnika-u-hrvatski-sabor-2024/3861

Public TeleVision:

www.hrt.hr/parlamentarni-izbori

[Georg Ebner]

ExitPoll of Ipsos for RTL (n=26.416):

58 HDZ+
44 SDP+
13 PO (nationalists)
11 Mozemo!("WeCan!": Greens/(Far)Left)
09 Most (Nat.cons.)
02 NPS (northern regionalists)
02 IDS (Istrian regionalists)
01 Fokus (centrists)

[Georg Ebner]

If these numbers will become true, Plenkovic will doubtlessly remain PM - even SDP&nat. would not have enough seats -, but it's very doubtful, whether he could put together a centrist coalition with northern&western regionalists (IDS&NPS), Fokus plus HSS (would require to break these out of the SDP-alliance).
So he would have to rely either on SDP or on the right (who are not necessarily very HDZ-friendly).

[Georg Ebner]

With nearly 40% counted, we have a first seatProJection based on actual results:

Not sure, whether it is a proGnosis of the final outCome or just taking the present numbers, when little is counted especially in elec.unit VI (ZagrebCity-mid & ZagrebLand-east).
If it ended that way, the left would have gained no seats at all!

[Georg Ebner]

3 (formerly 4) elec.districts cover ZagrebCity:

With a huge increase in turnOut the left parties gained summa summarum ~4% (~2%, if we include the centrists (Pametno->Fokus&Republika).

[Georg Ebner]

2000-vs.-2020:




Take notice, please, that in both elections SDP had strong rivals: 2000 the leftlib. HSLS-bloc, 2020 the farleft "WeCan!". Similar for HDZ.

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

ElectionResults of the 11 elec.districts (so without 12th=nat.minorities):

Due to the boundaryChanges a comParison with 2020 would not be very senseful.