Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 26, 2020 23:58:56 GMT
[Perhaps the moderator might merge all Croatian threads here?]
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 27, 2020 0:19:38 GMT
The parliamentary election should have been held next December, but HDZ and SDP agreed to hold it already before a possible second Corona-wave in autumn on July 5th.
The situation is complicated not only because of that virus, but also because of an EarthQuake in Zagreb last March.
A third - albeit not more than local - factor is, that HDZ-Vukovar split away.
Since the campaign for the (finally won) PresidentialElection last summer SDP recovered surprisingly and is ahead in most polls, while ZZ broke down (MOST also to some extent). Helpful rather for HDZ is, that the list of the presidential candidate and shortest-time exHDZ-MP and Slavonian FolkMusician stands at 10-15%. (But he is probably also open to a coalition with SDP and its allies HSS [farmers], HSU [pensionists] and an urban exHNS-group.)
ZZ could lose all seats, just like HDZ's present leftliberal CoalitionPartner HNS and MOST most, Zagreb's mayor Bandic is under hard pressure - what means, that not many more than 3 parties could come into the Sabor.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 4, 2020 16:38:09 GMT
Newest developments:
3/4 of Croatians see their country "on the wrong track".
Croatia's "most popular" (=least unpopular) politician, PM Plenkovic, came in contact with a TennisStar, who was tested positive on the CoronaVirus. Plenkovic didn't go into SelfQuarantaine, what didn't go down well, of course. Also, after HDZ had campaigned on having exterminated the virus, the Corona-infections have been "exploding" in the last few days (from close to zero into ~100 a day).
The popularity of president and exPM Milanovic (SDP) has fallen since his election in January dramatically, for no special misbehaviour.
Skoro said, that raped women should ask their relatives for allowance to abortion (thus pleasing perhaps some machos, but neither Christians nor the opposite). The candidate-lists of his "party" are full of celebrities (some closer to HDZ, some rather apolitical), making a survival of the parliamentary faction unlikely (especially when forced to support unpopular meassures of the government).
SDP's Bernardic ruled out coalitions with HDZ, Skoro, MOST, Bandic - so quasi everyone outside his coalition. HDZ's Plenkovic also any GrandCoalition, Skoro any with SDP.
What means, that C. will quite certainly slide into a precarious situation tomorrow.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 4, 2020 16:43:40 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 4, 2020 16:54:06 GMT
...and from nowhere green-left groups from Zagreb-city surged and should win in the ElectoralDistrict I (central city) 1-3 seats, perhaps also few more. (In Dalmacia and Slavonian they won't, though, and could waste decisive votes.)
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 4, 2020 16:59:28 GMT
What level of support is generally needed to win a seat?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 4, 2020 22:25:07 GMT
What level of support is generally needed to win a seat? 5% entitles (and is usually enough in those 10 units with 14 seats each because of the fragmentation). |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 5, 2020 17:04:11 GMT
Exit poll:
HDZ - 61
Restart (SDP) - 44
Škoro - 16
Green/Left - 8
Most - 8
SSIP/Pametno/Fokus - 3
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 5, 2020 17:48:42 GMT
Enthusiams among left journalists, that in the ElectoralDistrict I (Zabreb CityCenter) GreenLeft "got" 4 seats, SDP+ only 3 (according to the ExitPoll).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 5, 2020 17:49:40 GMT
Results aren't expected before 21.00 MET.
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 5, 2020 18:03:08 GMT
Is there a link to the results?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 5, 2020 18:12:22 GMT
Is there a link to the results? Official ones (but, as written, nothing will be published before ~21.00): www.izbori.hr/site/ |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 5, 2020 18:15:00 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 5, 2020 18:16:58 GMT
New ExitPoll:
62 HDZ+
43 SDP+
14 "HomeLand Movement" (=Skoro)
09 Bridge (Most)
08 GreenLeft
03 "We Can!"
01 HNS
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 5, 2020 19:11:09 GMT
23% counted:
71 HDZ+
45 SDP+
16 Skoro
04 Bridge
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 5, 2020 22:59:22 GMT
93% done.
151 MPs (140+ 3 diaspora + 8 minorities):
66 HDZ+ (63+3 diaspora)
41 SDP+HSU+IDS+HSS+Snaga+...
16 Skoro (nationalistic)
08 Bridge (rightliberal)
07 "We can!" (far left)
03 SSIP+Focus+Smart (far left)
A centrist like Plenkovic will surely ignore the Skoro-"party".
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 5, 2020 23:10:23 GMT
In his VictorySpeech Plenkovic claimed, that "in the last few years we put HDZ to the place dr.Tudjman wanted it to be", so trying to appeal&appease the right wing.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 6, 2020 1:45:57 GMT
TurnOuts:
1990: 74.8% HDZ
1992: 75.6% HDZ
1995: 68.8% HDZ
2000: 76.5% SDP
2003: 61.7% HDZ
2007: 59.5% HDZ
2011: 54.3% SDP
2015: 60.8% HDZ
2016: 54.4% HDZ
2020: 46.9% HDZ
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 6, 2020 3:54:48 GMT
Thankfully taken from de.wikipedia:  Changes 2016-2020:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 6, 2020 3:59:33 GMT
For the change-table the participation-differences would have been important, i know; but i didn't find the 2016-numbers anywhere.
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