Post by Deleted on May 25, 2020 18:57:38 GMT
This probably is my last, because I've run out of seats I know well enough to profile
Tewkesbury
Tewkesbury sits roughly in the middle of the northern boundary of the county of Gloucestershire. It covers the town of Tewkesbury itself at the northern edge, the town of Bishop’s Cleeve on the outskirts of Cheltenham alongside the Cheltenham suburbs of Prestbury and Swindon Village, a rural stretch out to the east that runs into the north western edge of the Cotswolds, and the suburban stretch between the cities of Gloucester and Cheltenham to its south, including the Gloucester community of Longlevens. A chunk of the northern area of this seat was historically in Worcestershire but was moved into Gloucestershire to connect some of the exclaves with the rest of the county. Even today, while most of the county supports Gloucester Rugby, the people of Tewkesbury and some of the surrounding areas are mostly Worcester fans. This seat borders Worcestershire West and Worcestershire Mid to its north and north east, The Cotwolds, Cheltenham and The Cotswolds again to its East; Gloucester and Stroud to its south and the Forest of Dean to its west. Although it is often thought of as a rural area, the reality is that the vast majority of the population lives in either the town of Tewkesbury itself; the misplaced Gloucester or Cheltenham suburbs; or the suburban area which hangs down in a rough bulb-shape between the two cities.
No profile of anything relating to Tewkesbury would complete without a mention of the town’s medieval fair, the largest such fair in the UK: in 2003 it was estimated to have attracted as many as 25,000 visitors over the weekend, from as far away as New Zealand and the west coast of the USA. It features a medieval camp, with various related stalls and entertainment, and a re-enactment of the Battle of Tewkesbury. The locals also get fully involved, and local businesses in the high street fly the standards of various nobles who fought in the battle, putting information on them in their shop windows, and many even dress up for the festival.
The Battle of Tewkesbury is perhaps the most important historical event to have happened in this area. In 1471, Margaret of Anjou and her Lancastrian army were marching north towards Wales to meet reinforcements led by Jasper Tudor. After they were shut out of Gloucester, they had to cross farther north. They rested at Tewkesbury for the night. Meanwhile, King Edward had been marching to meet them and finally caught up, sandwiching them between the river and their own army. Queen Margaret was captured and the Lancastrians were slaughtered, essentially ending that period of the Wars of the Roses. There has never been much in the way of industry in the area. As with much of Gloucestershire, farming, especially sheep farming, was a major part of the economy. Winchcombe was noted for particular lawlessness in the seventeenth century, such as cattle rustling, driven by local poverty. At least once, soldiers were also sent in to destroy illegal tobacco crop. This is a far cry from the modern constituency, which has a very commuter-oriented profile and is one of the richest in South West England.
Politically, this is a reliable Tory seat. The seat first existed from 1610 to 1918 and was recreated in 1997, with the current boundaries dating to 2010. It and its predecessors have had an unbroken run of Tory representation since 1885, with the exception of 8 years from 1951-59, when William Morrison was the speaker while representing Cirencester & Tewkesbury. Since its recreation, the LibDems have been second at every election except 2001, 2015 and 2017, when the finished behind Labour. It has usually been a fairly distant second, with the majority falling under 20% on only three occasions, and only falling under 15% once. In 2010, a large Lab to LD swing took the LibDems within 11.7%, but their vote collapsed by 21.7% in 2015 and the majority shot up to 39.7%. In 2019, Laurence Robertson won the seat by 36.6% over the LibDems, winning 58.4% of the vote.
Tewkesbury is the 461st most deprived seat in England, and the 3rd least deprived seat in Gloucestershire, behind The Cotswolds and Stroud. However, it scores higher on education, health and barriers to housing and services indices. It is not uniformly well off, and pockets of deprivation exist in the Prior’s Park area of Tewkesbury itself, as well as Northway nearby and a few of the less built-up areas around Cheltenham. 75.2% of households are owner-occupied, compared to 63.5% nationally and privately and socially rented housing are both significantly under-represented. This is significantly different in the (pre-2019) wards of Innsworth & Down Hatherley ward outside Gloucester, which is 30.4% privately rented, and Tewkesbury Prior’s Park, which is 36.6% socially rented. Managerial and professional occupations are above the national average, and elementary and routine occupations below it. Human health and social work is the most significantly under-represented industry, while manufacturing is the largest industry by employee numbers: 20.4% of the constituency compared to 8.1% nationally, mostly in various engineering jobs in and around Cheltenham.
The constituency is 93% UK born as opposed to 87% nationally. It is also 97.05% white, with only two wards under 95%. It is a highly educated constituency, with those educated to degree level making up an above-average share of the population and those with no qualifications making up a negligible one. The economic profile pushes this seat to the centre-right, as expected, but the social one does not make it especially liberal. The proximity of Gloucester and Cheltenham and the rail links from there through Swindon and Reading to London make this a popular area for commuters, who account for many of the well-educated people. This demographic is not overwhelmingly liberal or conservative, but mostly somewhere in the middle. The local authority was 53.65% leave; Longlevens would have voted leave, although the two Cheltenham wards would have ben remain, so this figure is probably similar for the constituency.
Identifying local areas of strength for different parties is not easy. Bishop’s Cleeve, Longlevens and some of the areas surrounding Gloucester are strong for the LibDems locally. The two Cheltenham wards in the seat are some of the Conservative’s strongest in Cheltenham, although the domination of the localist People Against Bureaucracy in Prestbury complicates matters slightly. No Labour councillor has been elected in the seat since 2003, when 3 were elected to Tewkesbury Borough Council. The deprived parts of Prior’s Park will be stronger for Labour than the seat at large, while the Cheltenham wards probably provide the same for the LibDems. Strength is, of course, relative, and the Conservatives will sweep every ward with ease at parliamentary elections.
Overall, this is a well-off, commuter-oriented, economically right-wing, socially moderate constituency. These demographics have ensured 135 years of Conservative representation so far, and barring a major shock look set to ensure at least another 135.
Tewkesbury
Tewkesbury sits roughly in the middle of the northern boundary of the county of Gloucestershire. It covers the town of Tewkesbury itself at the northern edge, the town of Bishop’s Cleeve on the outskirts of Cheltenham alongside the Cheltenham suburbs of Prestbury and Swindon Village, a rural stretch out to the east that runs into the north western edge of the Cotswolds, and the suburban stretch between the cities of Gloucester and Cheltenham to its south, including the Gloucester community of Longlevens. A chunk of the northern area of this seat was historically in Worcestershire but was moved into Gloucestershire to connect some of the exclaves with the rest of the county. Even today, while most of the county supports Gloucester Rugby, the people of Tewkesbury and some of the surrounding areas are mostly Worcester fans. This seat borders Worcestershire West and Worcestershire Mid to its north and north east, The Cotwolds, Cheltenham and The Cotswolds again to its East; Gloucester and Stroud to its south and the Forest of Dean to its west. Although it is often thought of as a rural area, the reality is that the vast majority of the population lives in either the town of Tewkesbury itself; the misplaced Gloucester or Cheltenham suburbs; or the suburban area which hangs down in a rough bulb-shape between the two cities.
No profile of anything relating to Tewkesbury would complete without a mention of the town’s medieval fair, the largest such fair in the UK: in 2003 it was estimated to have attracted as many as 25,000 visitors over the weekend, from as far away as New Zealand and the west coast of the USA. It features a medieval camp, with various related stalls and entertainment, and a re-enactment of the Battle of Tewkesbury. The locals also get fully involved, and local businesses in the high street fly the standards of various nobles who fought in the battle, putting information on them in their shop windows, and many even dress up for the festival.
The Battle of Tewkesbury is perhaps the most important historical event to have happened in this area. In 1471, Margaret of Anjou and her Lancastrian army were marching north towards Wales to meet reinforcements led by Jasper Tudor. After they were shut out of Gloucester, they had to cross farther north. They rested at Tewkesbury for the night. Meanwhile, King Edward had been marching to meet them and finally caught up, sandwiching them between the river and their own army. Queen Margaret was captured and the Lancastrians were slaughtered, essentially ending that period of the Wars of the Roses. There has never been much in the way of industry in the area. As with much of Gloucestershire, farming, especially sheep farming, was a major part of the economy. Winchcombe was noted for particular lawlessness in the seventeenth century, such as cattle rustling, driven by local poverty. At least once, soldiers were also sent in to destroy illegal tobacco crop. This is a far cry from the modern constituency, which has a very commuter-oriented profile and is one of the richest in South West England.
Politically, this is a reliable Tory seat. The seat first existed from 1610 to 1918 and was recreated in 1997, with the current boundaries dating to 2010. It and its predecessors have had an unbroken run of Tory representation since 1885, with the exception of 8 years from 1951-59, when William Morrison was the speaker while representing Cirencester & Tewkesbury. Since its recreation, the LibDems have been second at every election except 2001, 2015 and 2017, when the finished behind Labour. It has usually been a fairly distant second, with the majority falling under 20% on only three occasions, and only falling under 15% once. In 2010, a large Lab to LD swing took the LibDems within 11.7%, but their vote collapsed by 21.7% in 2015 and the majority shot up to 39.7%. In 2019, Laurence Robertson won the seat by 36.6% over the LibDems, winning 58.4% of the vote.
Tewkesbury is the 461st most deprived seat in England, and the 3rd least deprived seat in Gloucestershire, behind The Cotswolds and Stroud. However, it scores higher on education, health and barriers to housing and services indices. It is not uniformly well off, and pockets of deprivation exist in the Prior’s Park area of Tewkesbury itself, as well as Northway nearby and a few of the less built-up areas around Cheltenham. 75.2% of households are owner-occupied, compared to 63.5% nationally and privately and socially rented housing are both significantly under-represented. This is significantly different in the (pre-2019) wards of Innsworth & Down Hatherley ward outside Gloucester, which is 30.4% privately rented, and Tewkesbury Prior’s Park, which is 36.6% socially rented. Managerial and professional occupations are above the national average, and elementary and routine occupations below it. Human health and social work is the most significantly under-represented industry, while manufacturing is the largest industry by employee numbers: 20.4% of the constituency compared to 8.1% nationally, mostly in various engineering jobs in and around Cheltenham.
The constituency is 93% UK born as opposed to 87% nationally. It is also 97.05% white, with only two wards under 95%. It is a highly educated constituency, with those educated to degree level making up an above-average share of the population and those with no qualifications making up a negligible one. The economic profile pushes this seat to the centre-right, as expected, but the social one does not make it especially liberal. The proximity of Gloucester and Cheltenham and the rail links from there through Swindon and Reading to London make this a popular area for commuters, who account for many of the well-educated people. This demographic is not overwhelmingly liberal or conservative, but mostly somewhere in the middle. The local authority was 53.65% leave; Longlevens would have voted leave, although the two Cheltenham wards would have ben remain, so this figure is probably similar for the constituency.
Identifying local areas of strength for different parties is not easy. Bishop’s Cleeve, Longlevens and some of the areas surrounding Gloucester are strong for the LibDems locally. The two Cheltenham wards in the seat are some of the Conservative’s strongest in Cheltenham, although the domination of the localist People Against Bureaucracy in Prestbury complicates matters slightly. No Labour councillor has been elected in the seat since 2003, when 3 were elected to Tewkesbury Borough Council. The deprived parts of Prior’s Park will be stronger for Labour than the seat at large, while the Cheltenham wards probably provide the same for the LibDems. Strength is, of course, relative, and the Conservatives will sweep every ward with ease at parliamentary elections.
Overall, this is a well-off, commuter-oriented, economically right-wing, socially moderate constituency. These demographics have ensured 135 years of Conservative representation so far, and barring a major shock look set to ensure at least another 135.
