Post by Deleted on May 21, 2020 19:00:58 GMT
The Cotswolds
The Cotswolds runs down the entire eastern edge of Gloucestershire and curls around its southern boundary as well. It is predominantly made up of the hills and AONB after which it is named, although a decent sized of chunk of both is outside the constituency. The main town is Cirencester, commonly abbreviated to “Ciren” in the south of the constituency, with a population of just over 19,000. Other major towns include Tetbury even farther south with around 5,500 people, Wootton-Under-Edge in the South West with a similar population, and Moreton-in-Marsh with a population of about 3,500 in the north. This constituency borders Worcestershire Mid and Stratford-Upon-Avon to the north; Tewkesbury, Cheltenham, Tewkesbury again, and Stroud to the west; Thornbury & Yate to the south west; Wiltshire North to the south; Swindon North and Wantage to the south east; and Witney to the east.
A reasonable argument could be made for putting large chunks of this seat into other counties: parts around the northern edge used to in Worcestershire and Warwickshire, and transport connections to other areas of Gloucestershire are often poor. Moreton-in-Marsh has a station on the Oxford-Worcester rail line, which doesn’t have any other stops in Gloucestershire, meaning that it arguably has closer connections to Oxford, Evesham and Worcester than to either Cheltenham or Gloucester. Nevertheless, it is still a Gloucestershire constituency.
This is a constituency rich in history. It has the highest number of listed buildings of any seat in Britain, including the nationally renowned Chedworth Roman Villa. It is also home to Westonbirt Arboretum, founded in the 19th century and possibly the most famous Arboretum in Britain. Cirencester itself is a Roman town, with the Roman name Corinium Dobunnorum, and in the second century its walls enclosed the second largest area of any town in Britain. The area has had a thriving wool industry since the Roman era, which formed a key part of the local economy for centuries. At the northern end, Moreton-n-the Marsh is a Saxon town, first recorded in the late 6th century. It was connected to the Stratfor-Upon-Avon Canal at Stratford by a tramway as early as 1826, with a railway station opening in 1853. Cirencester was connected to the Thames and Severn Canal by 1789. Throughout all of this, there has been little industry in most of the area, apart from milling in Wootton, where Renishaw still operate today. One other exception is Watsonian Squire in Blockley, the UK’s largest manufacturer of sidecars and trailers for motorbikes.
The seat’s political history is rather less interesting. It came into being for the 1997 general election. It has been represented by Conservative Geoffrey Clifton-Brown for its entire existence, and his majority has never fallen below the 20.5% achieved in 2005. The LibDems have been second at every election except 2017, when Labour finished second. Labour also finished 4th behind UKIP in 2015 but have otherwise been a distant third. Its predecessor seat of Cirencester & Tewkesbury existed from 1918 to 1997, and was also Conservative for its entire history, aside from the period between 1951 and 1959 when it was represented by speaker William Morrison. The last time a non-Conservative won a seat in this area was when the Liberals won the old Cirencester seat in their 1906 landslide. At local level it is a slightly different story, and the Liberal Democrats currently control Cotswolds District Council, while the three Stroud District wards within the seat are represented by three Conservatives, two LibDems and a Green.
This constituency has a reputation for being populated by wealthy retirees and second home owners. While this is partially accurate, in some areas more than others, it is not completely true. It is the 486th most deprived seat in England, making it the least deprived in Gloucestershire. Despite this, there are some pockets of deprivation in central Cirencester and Tetbury, although overall this remains a reasonably well-off constituency. However, this seat is only just over the national average for owner-occupied households, at 67% compared to 63.5%, and only slightly under average for both socially and privately rented households. Interestingly, it is also double the average for the percentage of households living rent-free, although as that is still only 2.8% this is not necessarily meaningful. On the pre-2015 ward boundaries, Cirencester Watermoor, Cirencester Chesterton, Cirencester Park and Riversmeet (a rural eastern ward) were all under 60% owner-occupied at the last census. 80% of land within the wider AONB is used for agriculture, with oilseed rape, wheat and barley being key crops, alongside sheep farming. Tourism is also vital to the local economy, with 14.6% of the workforce being employed in accommodation and food services compared to a national average of 7.6%. Human health and social work is under-represented at just 9.4% of the workforce compared to an average of 13.2% nationally. Managerial occupations are over-represented and routine occupations under-represented, although neither to an extreme degree. Average earnings are below the national average, although this will be skewed by the relatively high number of retirees, and the number of people working in lower-paid jobs relating to agriculture and tourism. Despite this, it still only ranks 488th in England for income deprivation.
The population here is 93% UK-born and 97.9% white. It is also highly educated, with an above average percentage of the population educated to degree level and a below average share having no qualifications. However, as a large section of these degrees will be from the Royal Agriculture College in Cirencester, this won’t contribute to a socially liberal outlook as much as such education statistics tend to elsewhere. This is, overall, an economically right-wing constituency, although it is definitely a constituency of two halves. Whilst the northern half is of the more traditional right, the area around Cirencester is more of the pro-free market, pro-welfare state kind that is prevalent in many of the LibDems old West Country strongholds. The Cotswolds, and especially this area, is reasonably socially liberal, although again the areas around Cirencester and the south of the district are more liberal than the northern areas, as are the Stroud District areas. The district was 51% remain at the referendum, and that figure will be slightly higher for the constituency. Tetbury and the areas around Moreton will have provided the leave vote, while Cirencester and the surrounding area will have provided the majority for remain.
At local level, Cirencester has always been a pool of LibDem strength and they are now dominant, holding both county council seats, all 8 district council seats and 13 of the 16 town council seats. In 2011, Joe Harris became the youngest principal authority councillor ever elected in the UK, when he won in Cirencester Park at the age of 18. In 2013, he also became the youngest mayor in UK history at the age of 20. The rest of Cotswolds District has long been reliably Tor, but in 2019 the LibDems swept Cirencester, South Cerney and Moreton as well as winning a couple of rural wards to take control of the council. As previously mentioned, the Stroud wards are represented by three Conservatives, two LibDems and a Green, although the Greens also have some strength in Conservative-held Minchinhampton. At national level, it is very likely that the Tories win every ward, with a couple of the Cirencester wards being the only possible exceptions. Wootton provides another possible area of LibDem strength, but there can be no doubt that it goes Tory at general elections. Labour will be strongest in Cirencester and Tetbury, although even there they will be a distant third.
Overall, this is a well-off, rural and agricultural seat. It has been safe for the Conservatives for its entire existence, and it looks impossible that anything will change that.
The Cotswolds runs down the entire eastern edge of Gloucestershire and curls around its southern boundary as well. It is predominantly made up of the hills and AONB after which it is named, although a decent sized of chunk of both is outside the constituency. The main town is Cirencester, commonly abbreviated to “Ciren” in the south of the constituency, with a population of just over 19,000. Other major towns include Tetbury even farther south with around 5,500 people, Wootton-Under-Edge in the South West with a similar population, and Moreton-in-Marsh with a population of about 3,500 in the north. This constituency borders Worcestershire Mid and Stratford-Upon-Avon to the north; Tewkesbury, Cheltenham, Tewkesbury again, and Stroud to the west; Thornbury & Yate to the south west; Wiltshire North to the south; Swindon North and Wantage to the south east; and Witney to the east.
A reasonable argument could be made for putting large chunks of this seat into other counties: parts around the northern edge used to in Worcestershire and Warwickshire, and transport connections to other areas of Gloucestershire are often poor. Moreton-in-Marsh has a station on the Oxford-Worcester rail line, which doesn’t have any other stops in Gloucestershire, meaning that it arguably has closer connections to Oxford, Evesham and Worcester than to either Cheltenham or Gloucester. Nevertheless, it is still a Gloucestershire constituency.
This is a constituency rich in history. It has the highest number of listed buildings of any seat in Britain, including the nationally renowned Chedworth Roman Villa. It is also home to Westonbirt Arboretum, founded in the 19th century and possibly the most famous Arboretum in Britain. Cirencester itself is a Roman town, with the Roman name Corinium Dobunnorum, and in the second century its walls enclosed the second largest area of any town in Britain. The area has had a thriving wool industry since the Roman era, which formed a key part of the local economy for centuries. At the northern end, Moreton-n-the Marsh is a Saxon town, first recorded in the late 6th century. It was connected to the Stratfor-Upon-Avon Canal at Stratford by a tramway as early as 1826, with a railway station opening in 1853. Cirencester was connected to the Thames and Severn Canal by 1789. Throughout all of this, there has been little industry in most of the area, apart from milling in Wootton, where Renishaw still operate today. One other exception is Watsonian Squire in Blockley, the UK’s largest manufacturer of sidecars and trailers for motorbikes.
The seat’s political history is rather less interesting. It came into being for the 1997 general election. It has been represented by Conservative Geoffrey Clifton-Brown for its entire existence, and his majority has never fallen below the 20.5% achieved in 2005. The LibDems have been second at every election except 2017, when Labour finished second. Labour also finished 4th behind UKIP in 2015 but have otherwise been a distant third. Its predecessor seat of Cirencester & Tewkesbury existed from 1918 to 1997, and was also Conservative for its entire history, aside from the period between 1951 and 1959 when it was represented by speaker William Morrison. The last time a non-Conservative won a seat in this area was when the Liberals won the old Cirencester seat in their 1906 landslide. At local level it is a slightly different story, and the Liberal Democrats currently control Cotswolds District Council, while the three Stroud District wards within the seat are represented by three Conservatives, two LibDems and a Green.
This constituency has a reputation for being populated by wealthy retirees and second home owners. While this is partially accurate, in some areas more than others, it is not completely true. It is the 486th most deprived seat in England, making it the least deprived in Gloucestershire. Despite this, there are some pockets of deprivation in central Cirencester and Tetbury, although overall this remains a reasonably well-off constituency. However, this seat is only just over the national average for owner-occupied households, at 67% compared to 63.5%, and only slightly under average for both socially and privately rented households. Interestingly, it is also double the average for the percentage of households living rent-free, although as that is still only 2.8% this is not necessarily meaningful. On the pre-2015 ward boundaries, Cirencester Watermoor, Cirencester Chesterton, Cirencester Park and Riversmeet (a rural eastern ward) were all under 60% owner-occupied at the last census. 80% of land within the wider AONB is used for agriculture, with oilseed rape, wheat and barley being key crops, alongside sheep farming. Tourism is also vital to the local economy, with 14.6% of the workforce being employed in accommodation and food services compared to a national average of 7.6%. Human health and social work is under-represented at just 9.4% of the workforce compared to an average of 13.2% nationally. Managerial occupations are over-represented and routine occupations under-represented, although neither to an extreme degree. Average earnings are below the national average, although this will be skewed by the relatively high number of retirees, and the number of people working in lower-paid jobs relating to agriculture and tourism. Despite this, it still only ranks 488th in England for income deprivation.
The population here is 93% UK-born and 97.9% white. It is also highly educated, with an above average percentage of the population educated to degree level and a below average share having no qualifications. However, as a large section of these degrees will be from the Royal Agriculture College in Cirencester, this won’t contribute to a socially liberal outlook as much as such education statistics tend to elsewhere. This is, overall, an economically right-wing constituency, although it is definitely a constituency of two halves. Whilst the northern half is of the more traditional right, the area around Cirencester is more of the pro-free market, pro-welfare state kind that is prevalent in many of the LibDems old West Country strongholds. The Cotswolds, and especially this area, is reasonably socially liberal, although again the areas around Cirencester and the south of the district are more liberal than the northern areas, as are the Stroud District areas. The district was 51% remain at the referendum, and that figure will be slightly higher for the constituency. Tetbury and the areas around Moreton will have provided the leave vote, while Cirencester and the surrounding area will have provided the majority for remain.
At local level, Cirencester has always been a pool of LibDem strength and they are now dominant, holding both county council seats, all 8 district council seats and 13 of the 16 town council seats. In 2011, Joe Harris became the youngest principal authority councillor ever elected in the UK, when he won in Cirencester Park at the age of 18. In 2013, he also became the youngest mayor in UK history at the age of 20. The rest of Cotswolds District has long been reliably Tor, but in 2019 the LibDems swept Cirencester, South Cerney and Moreton as well as winning a couple of rural wards to take control of the council. As previously mentioned, the Stroud wards are represented by three Conservatives, two LibDems and a Green, although the Greens also have some strength in Conservative-held Minchinhampton. At national level, it is very likely that the Tories win every ward, with a couple of the Cirencester wards being the only possible exceptions. Wootton provides another possible area of LibDem strength, but there can be no doubt that it goes Tory at general elections. Labour will be strongest in Cirencester and Tetbury, although even there they will be a distant third.
Overall, this is a well-off, rural and agricultural seat. It has been safe for the Conservatives for its entire existence, and it looks impossible that anything will change that.
